Week 17 Fantasy Football Stars Who Will Struggle: Josh Allen, A.J. Brown, and More

Last week's attempt to find weekly fantasy starters who would struggle to live up to expectations was decent, with a good pick, a bad pick, and two that were mostly positive by our standards here:

• Dak Prescott threw for 244 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions and 14 rushing yards, a solid statistical day as his team was handled 34-17 by the Chargers. Prescott finished as QB11, which is fine but down from his QB5 season-long ranking.
• Christian McCaffrey had a big game, turning 21 carries into 117 yards and adding six receptions, 29 yards, and two touchdowns.
• Jacksonville's Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers both had middling-or-worse days: four receptions and 45 yards for Meyers and two for 18 for Thomas. Their teammate, Parker Washington, had the big game (six catches, 145 yards, and a touchdown).
• Brock Bowers had a modest day with five catches and 33 yards, but he also scored a touchdown, helping put him just outside the top 10 in both standard and PPR.

That's not bad. The McCaffrey pick was way off (I wasn't excited about choosing him), but the Jacksonville receivers had slow days, and both Prescott and Bowers finished outside the top 10 at their position.

Let's do it again and find one weekly fantasy starter at each position who will struggle to excel in Week 17. We are only looking at Sunday and Monday's games for this exercise. Most stats are from NFL.com.

Use FantasySP's defensive rankings to find the players and teams with the best matchups each week!

Quarterback

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Just like picking against McCaffrey last week, I don't want to make a case against Allen here; is anyone really benching him if they made it to the fantasy championship? He is by far the top quarterback in fantasy; even if he sat out this week, no one would likely catch him.

I don't need to tell you about all the good things he does. This season, Allen has a career-high completion percentage, a career-high yards-per-pass-attempt average, and numbers that have him back in the MVP race, though he's not at the top (partly from lower volume and partly because he won last year).

The matchup is what always puts guys here, and this is a tough one. The Eagles have allowed the third-fewest yards per pass attempt and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

Philly has been very good against the pass, allowing just over 200 passing yards per game. They have been OK against the QB run (21.9 yards per game, four touchdowns), but stronger runners like Jaxson Dart, Justin Herbert, and Patrick Mahomes topped 50 rushing yards, and Bo Nix, Carson Wentz, and Jordan Love went over 20.

Running is likely where Allen will find his most fantasy success this week, where he often does. It's going to be a tough game between two good defenses, and it might turn out to have a lower fantasy score for Allen (and Jalen Hurts) than owners are used to; the timing couldn't be worse.

Running Back

Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks

The Panthers won last week to take the lead in the NFC South, making this a highly important game against the Seahawks. Even if Carolina loses, they will still be in position to win the division if they can beat the Bucs again in Week 18.

Dowdle has been a major factor in their success, as the passing game and Chuba Hubbard have struggled, and Dowdle has been the driving force at times. He leads the team with over 1,000 rushing yards, and he's fourth with 273 receiving yards.

Seattle is the main problem here, as they have allowed the fewest yards per rush attempt and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to RBs. No individual runner has reached 100 yards against the Seahawks this season, and only six of 15 teams reached triple digits total from their backs.

Dowdle is a guy to leave on the bench this week. He has been very good when on the field, but this is about as tough a matchup as any back could have, and it points toward a slow day for Carolina's entire offense. He's a low-level flex guy at best and better left out of lineups.

Wide Receiver

A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles @ Buffalo Bills

We talked about Philadelphia's defense above, but they also have a stout opponent in this one. The Bills have given up the eighth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers.

Zay Flowers, Stefon Diggs, and Drake London all topped 100 yards against Buffalo within the first six weeks, but no receiver has reached that mark again since that time (a few hit 90). The Bills have allowed 17 passing touchdowns, tied for the fourth-fewest, and just 12 of those have gone to wide receivers (compared to 13 interceptions for the Buffalo defense).

Brown is the top guy in Philly, but there has been inconsistency as well, both from him and the Eagles' passing game. Volume is also an issue, as Philadelphia has thrown the third-fewest pass attempts for the ninth-fewest passing yards.

He still ranks among the top 11 in both standard and PPR, so it's not like Brown has fallen off a cliff, but he is on pace for fewer receptions and yards than his first two seasons with the Eagles (before playing only 13 games last year). Brown is a fringe WR1 in fantasy rather than the superstar he was at his statistical best.

Owners probably aren't benching him, but there is at least an argument to be made if you have really strong receivers. Don't make that move unless you have a rock-solid plan, though; Brown still has a high ceiling to go with his lower floor.

Tight End

Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Warren's last three games have been lowly enough to make him a real player to worry about in the fantasy playoffs:

• Week 14 @ Jacksonville: 2 receptions, 15 yards
• Week 15 @ Seattle: 3 receptions, 19 yards
• Week 16 vs. San Francisco: 3 receptions, 30 yards

The first game was the one in which Daniel Jones got hurt, and the most recent two have come with Philip Rivers, who will be under center again in Week 17. With diminished quarterback play has killed his fantasy value.

It's not his fault, but this is a time of action, not a time for assigning blame. If you noticed, that Week 14 game was against the same Jaguars team that Warren faces here. We have recent evidence of him struggling in this matchup.

While the Jags have been very good against the pass (fifth-fewest yards per attempt allowed), they have been susceptible to tight ends, giving up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the position. They have been better over the past four contests, though, allowing just 32.5 yards per game with no touchdowns to TEs.

Some owners won't bench Warren, but his floor is low enough that it's worth checking all your options. We have a lot of recent evidence pointing toward a slow game for the rookie.