Fantasy Football Week 16 Fantasy Stars Who Will Struggle: Dak Prescott, Christian McCaffrey, and More

Last week's attempt to find a weekly fantasy starter at each position who would fail to live up to expectations was a 50/50 split on success with a few big misses:

• Patrick Mahomes had a modest game before going down injured late, throwing for 189 yards on 6.8 per attempt with no touchdowns, and one interception while adding 15 rushing yards and a score on the ground. That put him at QB24.
• Josh Jacobs had a very strong day, running 12 times for 73 yards and a touchdown and adding two receptions for 19 yards and another score.
• Michael Pittman Jr. struggled along with the whole Indianapolis offense in Philip Rivers' first start. The star receiver had just three receptions for 26 yards.
• Trey McBride did the opposite of struggle, catching 12 passes for 134 yards and two touchdowns. McBride is far and away the best tight end in football this year; he will NOT be here again this week despite a tough matchup with Atlanta.

It's not bad to hit on 50%, but the two who played well did REALLY well, so that takes it down another notch. Let's do it again, though, and find one weekly starter at each offensive fantasy position who will fail to excel in Week 16. Most stats are from NFL.com.

Use FantasySP's defensive rankings to find the players with the toughest matchups each week and help make all your toughest lineup decisions!

Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Los Angeles Chargers

The Cowboys are hanging onto their final playoff hopes by a tiny thread: Dallas essentially needs to win the rest of their games and have the Eagles lose the rest, two of which come against Washington. It's not going to happen.

Prescott has had a big year and might get some down-ballot MVP votes depending on how the season ends for a few players, including the Dallas QB himself. Prescott leads the league with 3,931 passing yards and ranks third with 26 passing touchdowns, helping him to a QB5 fantasy ranking.

As is often the case, the matchup is the reason Prescott is here, as the Chargers have allowed the third-fewest yards per pass attempt and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. QBs are averaging around 190 passing yards per game with 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions and just 17.5 rushing yards per game.

Prescott has been very good this season, particularly from a fantasy perspective, but the matchup here is brutal, leaving Prescott at risk of a quiet day. He will probably still build volume because that's just what he has done all season, but Prescott is unlikely to have a huge game, sitting with a more middling ceiling.

Running Back

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco 49ers @ Indianapolis Colts

Oh, boy. Do you want to take the lead on this one and make the case against McCaffrey, the most productive running back and best fantasy RB of the past half-decade? When choosing a player who will struggle, I almost never choose the best of the best.

McCaffrey is here because there isn't another player who meets all the criteria and because the Colts have been really good against running backs. Indy has allowed the fewest yards per rush attempt and the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to RBs.

For the first time since 2020, McCaffrey is averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry; his 3.6 mark is a full yard less than his career rate. As usual, he is doing plenty of damage in the passing game, averaging 6.1 receptions and 58.6 yards per game with five touchdowns, and McCaffrey is on pace to top both 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards and finish with 17 total touchdowns.

The Colts have been good against the RB pass, allowing 26 yards per game with only one touchdown on the whole season. McCaffrey is different, and he'll probably put up better numbers than that, but this team seems equipped to at least hold the star running back to a modest day in the passing game.

McCaffrey will likely have a fine fantasy day, and no one is benching him at this point in the season, but there's risk of a slower game here. While we'll likely be back here talking about how dumb of a pick this was next week, owners counting on McCaffrey could end up disappointed.

Wide Receiver

Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos

I'm not quite sure who to pick here. Meyers has found success in six games with the Jaguars, averaging 4.5 catches and 59.2 yards per game with three touchdowns. The first three came without Thomas in the lineup, but Meyers actually did a little better in the three games he played with Thomas.

The assumed star of the Jaguars' passing game, Thomas has had a rough season, averaging 3.5 receptions and 54.6 yards per game. That's fine for a mid-level guy, but Thomas was at 5.1 and 75.4 last season with 10 touchdowns compared to just two this year. In the three games with Meyers, Thomas averaged three catches and 60.3 yards per game with a touchdown.

Both players are close in fantasy value, so I will list them both here as players who could struggle, even if they're not really fantasy “stars.” Their team has been successful, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence ranks among the top 10 fantasy QBs, so both Meyers and Thomas have upside on the right weeks.

This is not one of those times, as the Broncos have given up the sixth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Denver has stars at all three levels of the defense, most importantly cornerback Pat Surtain II for our purposes. Nothing will come easy, and both receivers have a floor at zero catches.

They will probably haul in at least a few passes, but this has the makings of a slow day for both Meyers and Thomas. You can find a better outlook unless you're in a deep league, and even then they top out as lower-level WR3/4/flex players.

Tight End

Brock Bowers, Las Vegas Raiders @ Houston Texans

Houston was the defense listed in the tight end section last week, the group that gave up that huge day to McBride. It didn't matter much to the Texans, as they were up multiple scores essentially the whole game and could let the Cardinals put up garbage time stats in a 40-20 win, but this defense is much more malicious.

The Texans have allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt. Even after McBride's explosion, they're still giving up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends, showing how stingy they were before.

Bowers is a superstar tight end, but his team is brutally bad and brings down his floor and ceiling. Geno Smith should return for this game after missing last week, but everything is pointing against Bowers having a good day in this one. (And if Kenny Pickett starts? That's not going to be good for anybody.)

Some owners will start Bowers regardless of matchup, and I get it; he's a stud. Given the circumstances and the matchup, though, it's reasonable to see if you have a better option this week.