Fantasy Football Week 15 Running Back Who Should I Start? Rico Dowdle, TreVeyon Henderson, and More
Comparing Rico Dowdle to four RBs who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
Rico Dowdle started the year as the backup in Carolina, but after excelling while Chuba Hubbard was injured then outplaying the starter once he returned, Dowdle moved into the top spot on the depth chart and has been leading the way for the Panthers' backfield.
They split the touches in their last game (Week 13 against the Rams before a bye last week), and Hubbard outplayed Dowdle, so there are now questions about whether the Carolina veteran will get more work, cutting into Dowdle's touches. As a result, Dowdle is showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool.
Let's look at Dowdle and four running backs who he has been matched up with often on the start/sit tool. We will do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Since Week 5 when Dowdle first stepped into the starting role, he has averaged 94 rushing yards per game on 5.2 per carry with four touchdowns, adding 24 receptions for 234 yards and another score. During that time, he was a top-six fantasy RB in both standard and PPR.
Even after Hubbard had a big game against the Rams, Dowdle is likely to get the ball more because he has been better over a longer timeframe (as far as this season is concerned). It would make sense for a losing team to give more work to the guy under contract next season (Hubbard), but the Panthers are surprisingly leading the NFC South, so they will go with the best players on the field for the playoff push.
The Saints are right in the middle in both yards per rush attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to running backs. Backs are finding just modest receiving work, averaging 3.2 catches and 23.4 yards per game with three touchdowns.
When the teams played in Week 10, Dowdle had 18 carries for 53 yards and a touchdown, while Hubbard carried it just three times for 14 yards; Dowdle had three catches for 10 yards and Hubbard one reception for one yard. There's a decent chance for Dowdle to have another productive fantasy day.
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints
Let's start with Dowdle's teammate who is causing most of the consternation. Prior to carrying the ball 17 times in Week 13, Hubbard had 15 combined carries in the previous four games. He has been outshone by Dowdle, averaging a below-average 3.9 yards per attempt with just one touchdown.
We already talked about the Saints being average against the run, so this is strictly about the players in question. Dowdle has been better this season, and Hubbard has mostly been middling in his career, so there doesn't seem to be much reason for the coaching staff to lean back Hubbard's way.
Advice: Start Rico Dowdle over Chuba Hubbard.
TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Speaking of a running back taking over the reins, Henderson has been the leading rusher for the Patriots in six straight games. Rhamondre Stevenson missed a few of those contests, but Henderson has been touching the ball more and gaining yards more efficiently than the veteran.
The Bills have allowed the fourth-most yards per rush attempt and the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They don't give up much in the passing game, allowing around four catches and 24 yards per game with just two scores, but Buffalo has been beat up by the running game since Week 1.
Advice: Start TreVeyon Henderson over Rico Dowdle. The two backs are in a similar situation in that they are the starter ahead of a less efficient back who steals touches, but Henderson has the much better matchup, giving him the advantage.
Aaron Jones Sr., Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys
Jones missed four games earlier this season, but he has been leading the backfield mostly since returning in Week 8, with Jordan Mason not far behind in touches. Jones is on the field more, but Mason touches the ball on a higher percentage of his snaps, leaving them close in value (with Jones having the advantage).
Dallas has allowed the seventh-most yards per rush attempt and the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. The position has been able to find some receiving success, averaging 5.4 receptions and close to 50 yards per game (though with only three TDs). The Cowboys are sieve-like against the pass, and they're only slightly more accomplished against the run.
Advice: This is a tough one because I like Dowdle more, but Jones has the much better matchup here. Dowdle has a better chance to dominate the backfield touches, but I'm going to give the slight edge to Jones because the matchup is just that good. Start Aaron Jones over Rico Dowdle in a very 50/50 decision.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Miami Dolphins
Every back we've talked about here has to share significant snaps with another player, and that's the same story here with Warren, who has Kenneth Gainwell stealing goal line touches, the most valuable of all the carries. While Warren leads in carries 159 to 80, Gainwell has 50 receptions to Warren's 30, giving the backup more PPR appeal also.
Gainwell has also been better from a yards-per-rush perspective (4.6 to 4.1) despite getting more of that short work. Warren ranks just inside the top 20 in both standard and PPR, so he's still a decent fantasy back, but he hasn't been as impressive this season as we have seen at times in the past.
The Dolphins have given up the fifth-most yards per rush attempt, though they sit right in the middle in fantasy points allowed to RBs. Generally, teams that are better in fantasy than on a per-carry basis see that difference because of volume, but in Miami's case, it's because they have only given up six rushing touchdowns and one receiving TD to running backs.
Advice: Start Rico Dowdle over Jaylen Warren. The Pittsburgh back has the better matchup, but I'm not excited about his fantasy prospects with Gainwell taking a lot of valuable work. Warren is still a fine option here, but I prefer Dowdle.
