Fantasy Football Week 13 Low-Ranked Starters: Jaxson Dart, Bucky Irving, and More

Last week's attempt to find guys ranked outside the fantasy starters at their position who would break into that top group was a 50/50 split of good and bad picks:

• Matthew Stafford did what was expected, throwing for 273 yards and three touchdowns in a game his team won 34-7. The Rams are legit Super Bowl contenders with their MVP candidate under center.
• David Montgomery had just five carries for 18 yards while Jahmyr Gibbs went nuts (219 yards on 15 carries). Detroit threw the ball more than twice as many times as they ran it, and Gibbs also dominated that area, catching 11 passes for 45 yards and another score (Montgomery had three for 19).
• Rashid Shaheed didn't catch either of his two targets against the Titans, only picking up five rushing yards along the way. I mentioned that there was a low floor for Shaheed, but Sam Darnold threw for 244 yards, so there were looks available. Jaxon Smith-Njigba hogged targets, as he usually does.
• Colston Loveland caught four passes for 49 yards and a touchdown, putting together another solid day for fantasy owners. He didn't do as well in the Black Friday game, but that doesn't affect what we were looking for here against Pittsburgh in Week 12.

That's an OK day, as two guys ranked as fantasy starters but the other two were well below that level. Let's do it again and find a guy at each offensive position who is ranked below the fantasy starters but could break through into that lofty group.

We're using FantasySP's projections for the rankings. The top 10 represents the “starters” at quarterback and tight end and the top 20 for running back and wide receiver. Most stats are from NFL.com.

Use FantasySP's start/sit tool to compare players and help make your toughest lineup decisions!

Quarterback

Jaxson Dart, New York Giants @ New England Patriots

Dart is just outside the top 10, not far from the starting group, but he does miss the cut, making him eligible for this spot. Dart makes his return from a two-game absence with a concussion to face the team with the best record in the league entering Sunday.

From Weeks 4 through 10 (the seven games Dart started), he was fantasy QB1 and scored the third-most fantasy points per game (Patrick Mahomes and Matthew Stafford both had higher averages but had their bye during that stretch). There's no reason to think he won't pick up where he left off.

Dart has been OK throwing the ball, averaging just 202.4 yards per game at 6.9 per attempt (slightly below average). He has 10 touchdowns and three interceptions. Where he has really made a difference is with his legs, as Dart is averaging 45.3 rushing yards and one touchdown per game on the ground.

That pushes his real-life performance forward and makes an even bigger fantasy impact, as rushing production accumulates fantasy points faster than passing. Dart has topped 50 rushing yards in five of his seven games and scored in six of them, showing consistency and not just a few big games skewing the numbers.

The Patriots are just a hair better than average in terms of both yards per pass attempt and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks; this is a middling matchup. I usually look for a poor defense, but this is more about the QB in question who has been a weekly fantasy starter when in the lineup. We can expect another top-10 fantasy performance (or close to it).

Running Back

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals

It won't be often that we get Irving ranked outside the top 20 when he is active, but he is making his return here after an eight-week absence (seven games and a bye), so there are questions as to how much work he will get and how effective he will be. There are also two other capable backs who can split the load, allowing the team to ease him in.

Tampa Bay has a half-game lead in the division, so they don't have unlimited time. Irving doesn't necessarily have to work his way into shape; he might be ready to go and hit the ground running (no pun intended). There's some upside here.

The Cardinals are right in the middle in yards per rush attempt allowed, and they have given up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They have given up over 100 yards to RB groups in five of 11 games and over 70 yards in 10 of those contests. This is a vulnerable team.

Only the 49ers have found success in the running back receiving game, so I'm looking mostly at Irving's rushing production here. Risk-averse owners might prefer to wait a week to see how he does, but if you don't have that option, then Irving has a chance to find success right away.

Wide Receiver

Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos @ Washington Commanders

Washington is a must-target team with opposing fantasy players in the passing game. They have allowed by far the most yards per pass attempt, the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, the sixth-most to receivers, and the 10th-most to tight ends. The Commanders are as friendly as any matchup in football.

Franklin has seven more targets, one more reception, and one more touchdown than Courtland Sutton, but Sutton has 140 more receiving yards, showing more explosiveness. Sutton is rightly seen as a top 20 receiver this week, but Franklin is ranked outside the top 30.

Bo Nix is a little below average as a passer, so there's not always enough to go around for everyone, but with the matchup this good, both Sutton and Franklin could find success together. He's more of a WR3/4/flex type, but Franklin has a chance to sneak into the top 20 this week against the Commanders.

Tight End

Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints @ Miami Dolphins

Johnson has been my tight end of the weekend, both because of his great matchup against Miami and because there aren't many other healthy skill players of note in New Orleans. Alvin Kamara will miss this game after suffering an injury early last week, and Chris Olave is questionable with a back injury.

Miami has given up the seventh-most yards per pass attempt and the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. They have been among the worst pass defenses all season, and even a team short on skill players and with a rookie quarterback can find success.

Tyler Shough has started three games, averaging 233.7 yards per game on 7.5 per attempt with three touchdowns and two interceptions in those contests. He has been inconsistent, something that is likely to continue, but he at least looks functional on the field. Shough and Johnson should be able to connect in this one, making for a decent streaming tight end.