Fantasy Football Week 12 Quarterback Who Should I Start? Sam Darnold, Daniel Jones, Joe Flacco, and More
Comparing Sam Darnold to three quarterbacks who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
Sam Darnold has been on fire this season after breaking out with the Vikings last year, and it now appears as if Seattle has found their guy. Maybe it shouldn't be a surprise that a former third overall pick found success, but Darnold was something of a dumpster fire before reaching Minnesota, so it has been shocking to see his turnaround.
With that success has come some fantasy shine as well, but Darnold still ranks as just QB16 over the full season. That disconnect from real performance to fantasy performance has fantasy owners questioning where Darnold sits after a rough game last week, and he has been showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool.
Let's look at Darnold and three quarterbacks who he has been compared to often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks @ Tennessee Titans
Darnold threw four interceptions last week against the Rams in a game in which Seattle only lost by two points (including a long missed field goal as time expired). He has been fairly impeccable otherwise, averaging 254.1 passing yards per game on 9.3 per attempt with 17 touchdowns in 10 games (and now 10 interceptions).
The matchup turns fully the other way here, as the Seahawks go from facing a Super Bowl contender to maybe the worst team in the league. That includes on defense, where they have given up the sixth-most yards per pass attempt and the 13th-most fantasy points per game to QBs.
Seattle's passing game has been rolling, even approaching 300 yards last week around the interceptions. Now with a much better matchup, Darnold has a good outlook and could end up as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks of the week. The only worry is that the Seahawks could take a big lead and focus on the run game, but I still think Darnold will get enough chances to rack up stats.
Joe Flacco, Cincinnati Bengals vs. New England Patriots
Flacco's best asset here might be his own defense: Cincinnati struggles hard to stop both the pass and the run, and as a result, they have given up more points and points per game than any other team. That necessitates the offense throwing the ball to try to keep up, and that is a likely outcome here with the Patriots rolling and the Bengals trending the other way.
Flacco has been much better since arriving in Cincinnati from Cleveland, averaging 290.6 passing yards per game with 12 touchdowns and just three interceptions in five contests with the Bengals. There are weapons in the passing game, and Flacco has taken advantage, including games with 342 and 470 yards.
New England is right in the middle in both yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. They started the season struggling mightily against the pass but have tightened up, partly a function of the schedule.
Since Week 4, the Pats have faced Bryce Young, Josh Allen, Spencer Rattler, Cameron Ward, Dillon Gabriel, Michael Penix, Baker Mayfield, and Justin Fields. Other than Allen and Mayfield, that's a moribund group of QBs, and it's not a surprise that New England has looked better.
Advice: Start Sam Darnold over Joe Flacco. The latter could put up some volume, but Darnold has a better outlook as long as the Seahawks don't get too far ahead too early.
Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
Jones is having by far the best season of his career, completing 70% of his passes and averaging 265.9 passing yards per game on 8.3 per attempt. He hasn't run a ton, but he has scored five touchdowns on the ground, a nice fantasy boost. Jones is squarely on the fantasy radar.
The matchup seems a little tougher on paper, but the Chiefs have allowed the 11th-most yards per pass attempt to go along with the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs, falling somewhere in the middle. After fielding a phenomenal defense the past two years, KC looks much more average, leaving them as a decent target.
Advice: This is a tough one because the game is likely to stay close, necessitating Jones staying on the attack. Jones ranks as QB8 and was QB5 before their bye last week and gets a little rushing, while Darnold doesn't hardly run at all. I'll give the slight advantage to Jones, but this one is close to 50/50.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Love is a bit of a tougher player to evaluate here because his stats are more modest, but his efficiency has been very good. Love has been a better real quarterback than fantasy quarterback this season, similar to Darnold.
Love still averages 242 yards per game on 7.8 per attempt, and his 15 touchdowns to just three interceptions are great, but he's another guy who doesn't run the ball a lot, leaving him closer to the middle as a fantasy QB. Injuries to his pass catchers have also been a major issue, but Love keeps finding success.
The Vikings have given up the 10th-most yards per pass attempt and 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, putting them somewhere in the middle as a target. We still often think of Minnesota as having an above-average defensive group, but the reality is that they are middling. I don't want to go after the Vikes every week, but they're OK to target in the right situations, like if you are considering Love here.
Advice: Start Sam Darnold over Jordan Love. This one is very close, as both players have similar outlooks, but Darnold has the better matchup, so I'll lean his direction. So much hinges on the game script for Seattle, but I'm guessing they will do plenty of throwing, even if they build a lead.
