Week 12 Fantasy Football Stars Who Will Struggle: Dak Prescott, Justin Jefferson, and More

Last week's attempt to find weekly fantasy starters who would struggle to excel was a rough outing after Week 10's success:

• Patrick Mahomes found volume (276 yards) but not efficiency (just 6.1 yards per attempt). His one touchdown and one interception put him at QB14 for the week.
• Derrick Henry made up for a slow first game against Cleveland, this time running for 103 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries (with two catches for 19 yards). The Browns did well to flummox Baltimore, but Henry found success, including on a 59-yard run.
• Brian Thomas Jr. didn't play, something I noted was a possibility. We didn't have many good receiver options, so Thomas was chosen almost by default; we'll pretend this one never happened.
• Travis Kelce had a big day, catching nine passes for 91 yards and a touchdown. I said that Mahomes had volume but not efficiency, but it didn't matter for Kelce, who was a beneficiary of the many attempts.

That's not very good. Of the three who played, Mahomes was mediocre, but the other two lived up to their billing as fantasy stars. Failure never stopped us before, though, so let's do it again and find one weekly starter at each offensive fantasy position who will struggle to live up to expectations in Week 12. Most stats are from NFL.com.

Use FantasySP's defensive rankings to find the players and teams with the toughest matchups each week!

Quarterback

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles

This is actually a difficult task this week for one main reason: most of our best pass defenses aren't available. The Broncos and Chargers are both on bye, and the Texans played against the Bills on Thursday Night Football, a game I usually don't include here. Josh Allen would have been the pick against Houston, and it would have worked out (Allen had 253 passing yards, no touchdowns, two interceptions, and 20 rushing yards).

Instead, we're going with a guy who doesn't always live up to the billing of “fantasy star” despite playing at that level at times. After being set back by a quiet Week 1, Prescott moved into the top 10 in fantasy scoring by Week 4 and got as high as QB2 after Week 7. He has stayed in the top 10 since that time, currently sitting at QB9.

The Eagles have given up the seventh-fewest yards per pass attempt and the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They're not a dreadful matchup, like the teams mentioned that are on bye, but Philly has been a top-10 pass defense and previously stifled Prescott.

When these teams played in Week 1, Prescott had 188 yards on just 5.5 per attempt with no touchdowns or interceptions. The Dallas passing game has had much better games since that time, but a lot of those came against weaker defensive teams, like the Giants, Bears, and Commanders, and were built on volume more than efficiency.

Prescott is a good fantasy quarterback who should be considered with the matchups. Against a defense that already held him down once, Prescott is in danger of another slow fantasy week.

Running Back

Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Cleveland Browns

Ugh. OK, let's start here: Jeanty is NOT a fantasy star. He's not even a weekly starter at this point. We are completely bereft of good options for this spot this week, though, so unless you want to go with Bam Knight, Tyrone Tracy Jr., or Rachaad White, I'm going to go based off Jeanty's name recognition more than his production.

Jeanty was drafted sixth overall and immediately anointed a first- or second-round fantasy pick. He still ranks among the top 20 fantasy RBs in both formats, but Jeanty has been far from the superstar he was projected to be. Jeanty sits in the low-RB2/flex zone most weeks, a fine player to consider but not a guy to count on regularly.

The Browns have a strong defense and are especially good against the run, allowing the seventh-fewest yards per rush attempt and the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. The first individual player to reach 100 rushing yards against Cleveland was Henry last week; it's unlikely to happen two weeks in a row.

Vegas has a weak offense, not giving Jeanty many touchdown opportunities. Pair that with an inefficient run game, and there is a low floor here against a tough defense.

Wide Receiver

Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers

Jefferson has labored hard in the Minnesota passing game with J.J. McCarthy under center, showing visible frustration with the failure of a formerly great passing attack. Jefferson is on pace for 95 receptions, 1,270 yards, and 3.5 touchdowns; the first number would be his lowest in a full season since his rookie year, while the yards and TDs would be his lowest ever.

Look at those numbers again, though, and you'll see a successful receiver who is simply great and not living up to his best-receiver-in-football standards. He still ranks among the top 20 receivers in both standard and PPR, and while his biggest games came with Carson Wentz, Jefferson is still touching the ball.

The matchup is the bigger issue here, as the Packers have allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt and the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to wide receivers. Green Bay is a victim of volume more than anything else, as teams don't find any efficiency but have thrown a lot; the Packers have been fantastic against the pass.

This could be an ugly offensive game for Minnesota. Green Bay is also allowing the second-fewest yards per rush attempt and the seventh-fewest points per game, not budging anywhere. More frustration is likely coming for the Vikings' passing game, leaving Jefferson with a lower floor than usual.

Tight End

Tyler Warren, Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs

I'll start off by saying I hate this pick. There's no other reasonable option, though, as the next closest thing is Jake Ferguson, but we already talked about his quarterback above. Warren has been great all year, averaging five receptions and 61.7 yards per game with four total touchdowns (one rushing).

He ranks among the top five tight ends in both standard and PPR, and owners aren't benching Warren. I'm not suggesting you should bench him just because he's listed here. This is simply an acknowledgement that he could struggle to excel to his usual level due to the matchup.

Kansas City is actually a hair worse than average in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they have given up the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. After sporting a stifling defense the past few seasons, the Chiefs are closer to average on that side of the ball. With the offense not dominating, that leaves KC somewhere in the middle right now.

Warren will probably have a fine game, but there's a chance he could be a little quieter than his season averages. Keep him in your lineup but don't count on a huge day.