Fantasy Football Week 10 Running Back Start/Sit: Kyle Monangai, Kimani Vidal and More
Ted Chmyz goes over the running backs you can trust and those you can't in this Week 10 fantasy football start/sit breakdown.
Welcome to Week 10's fantasy football start/sit breakdown for the running back position!
As always, I'd like to start with a quick look back at last week's results. And, for the third straight week, I was once again better as a hater than a believer.
My three sit picks were excellent, as Woody Marks (2.7 half-PPR points), Jordan Mason (4.2 even with Aaron Jones Sr. going down early), and Alvin Kamara (0.2) all finished outside the top-40 running backs in Week 9.
Unfortunately, two of my three start suggestions weren't much better: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (5.2) and Bam Knight (5.7) were both outside the top 30. My one hit was Kareem Hunt, who scored 12 points for a solid RB16 finish in Isiah Pacheco's absence.
At this point, the consistently mediocre production of the majority of backs listed in this article may be indicative of a larger truth. The running backs on the edge of startability in bye-week season are usually pretty uninspiring committee options; it shouldn't be surprising that they are failing to score many points.
With that said, I'm still hoping for some better start results this week, to go with more of the same on the sit side. Let's get started.
For more help with your toughest Week 10 start/sit decisions, check out FantasySP's start/sit tool!
Running Backs to Start Week 10
Kyle Monangai, Chicago Bears
Obviously, Monangai is a must-start if D'Andre Swift is out again with the groin injury that caused him to miss Week 9. However, the veteran has said he plans to play this week; he was able to practice in a limited capacity on Wednesday. But I think Monangai is worth considering as a starter even if Swift is active.
The rookie was trending in the right direction even before his big game last week. He had handled 20 carries and three targets on a 45% snap share in Weeks 7 and 8, including a 16.4-point fantasy outing. Ben Johnson's quotes about competition in the backfield have been slightly overblown in some fantasy circles, but I still wouldn't be surprised if Monangai earned an even larger role going forward with his big game on Sunday.
Even if his role isn't ideal, Monangai should take advantage of a great matchup this week. The Bears are clear favorites against a Giants' team that ranks second in points per game allowed to opposing backs. He's not a must-start if Swift is back, but don't assume that Monangai will return to backup status and be a must-bench, either.
Aaron Jones, Minnesota Vikings
Jones' fantasy production since returning from injury hasn't been great. He scored four points in Week 8 and followed up with an okay-not-great 10.8 in Week 9. However, those numbers are deceiving. The Vikings were dominated by the Chargers in the first of those two matchups, and Jones left the second with essentially a full half to go due to a shoulder injury.
Now, that shoulder injury (and a new toe issue) kept Jones out of practice entirely on Wednesday, so there's a chance he doesn't suit up this week. But if he does, we can expect him to be the Vikings' clear RB1.
In his three healthy halves since returning from a hamstring injury, he played 62% of Minnesota's snaps, handled 60% of their RB rushes, and saw six targets on a route participation rate above 50%. Meanwhile, Mason saw just six carries (a 30% share) and two targets on a 31% snap share.
The Vikings also have a good matchup this week, facing a Ravens' defense that has given up the fifth-most points to opposing backs. They are 4.5-point underdogs, but a slightly negative game script might even favor Jones, as he is clearly a better passing-down back than Mason. Make sure you have a backup plan in case he is unable to suit up, but Jones is otherwise a solid option this week.
Kimani Vidal, Los Angeles Chargers
Things are trending in the wrong direction for Vidal. The Chargers lost their excellent young left tackle Joe Alt for the season last week, further weakening an already heavily injured O-line. Meanwhile, Vidal was unable to take advantage of a theoretically very soft matchup with the Titans, finishing with just three half-PPR points — he managed only 30 yards on 12 carries and failed to catch his only target.
Making matters worse, Vidal appeared to lose some of the role he has enjoyed since Omarion Hampton's injury. He handled just three more carries than Jaret Patterson, 12-9. That was good for just a 57% RB rush share, down from 75%, 90%, and 64% in the previous three weeks.
However, that number is slightly misleading — four of Patterson's nine carries came on the Chargers' final drive, and three more came on three straight plays late in the third. These weren't garbage-time looks, and they certainly still count, but Vidal was the clear lead RB for most of the game (he played 47 snaps to Patterson's 18).
So Vidal is still LA's clear RB1. And, even with all their O-line injuries, the Chargers are still a good offense. Even in a bad matchup with the Steelers' defense — they allow the seventh-fewest points per game to RBs — Vidal is a valid starting option this week.
Running Backs to Sit Week 10
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Fading Kamara was my bold call of Week 9. That pick could hardly have turned out better, as the veteran finished with just 17 total yards. Depending on how your league scores fumbles and receptions, he may have even finished with negative fantasy points.
Kamara has multiple things working against him. For one, he is no longer the hyper-efficient back he once was. He's managed to provide fantasy value in recent years despite this thanks to elite volume … but now that's gone, too.
Over the last two weeks, the veteran has played just 54% of New Orleans' offensive snaps. He has handled 12 carries (a 57% backfield rush share once we include Taysom Hill's six attempts) and seen five targets (a 6.6% share) on a 32% route participation rate. Rookie Devin Neal has actually run three more routes over these two games than Kamara.
These issues are compounded by the fact that the Saints' offense has been horrendous this year. Things have only gotten worse since Spencer Rattler was benched for Tyler Shough. The second-round rookie ranks second-worst out of 42 QBs in EPA per play. This week seems like an easier matchup at first against the Panthers, but Carolina's offense has been at least competent so far this season.
The Saints' 17-point total is the lowest of the week, so counting on a TD to bail out Kamara is likely a losing bet. With that in mind, I recommend benching the five-time Pro Bowler if you have another solid option this week.
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers
I didn't think this would need saying, but Hubbard is apparently still being started in over a quarter of ESPN fantasy leagues. That's more than some other players I considered for this spot (shoutout to Jacory Croskey-Merritt and RJ Harvey), so let's focus on the Carolina back for now.
At this point, Hubbard is simply the Panthers' RB2. The team said it would give Rico Dowdle a shot as the team's RB1 in Week 9; they did, and he made the most of it with his third huge outing of the season.
Meanwhile, Hubbard played just 11 snaps (20%), handling five carries and one target. That's not even committee usage, it's backup usage. Hubbard is a must-bench unless you're truly desperate.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Hubbard is admittedly a safe fade this week, so let's follow him up with a bolder pick. After he failed to escape the Jets before the NFL trade deadline, Hall should be left on fantasy benches this week. There is a non-zero chance that this week's drama impacts his usage, but that's not really what this is about.
Instead, I'm simply scared of the Jets' offense against the Browns' excellent defense, especially when it comes to the running game. Despite being paired with arguably the league's worst offense, Cleveland's defense has allowed the second-fewest points per game to opposing backs so far this season.
And we've seen that, especially against good defenses, the Jets are capable of completely imploding offensively. And Hall is by no means immune to these issues — he has finished outside the top-30 weekly running backs in half of his outings this season. In those four weeks, the Jets averaged a miserable 13.5 points. This week, they have an 18-point total (second to only the aforementioned Saints).
Hall is explosive and sees solid usage, so he's not a must-bench … but he's not a must-start, either.