NFL Week 6 Quarterback Prop Bets: Josh Allen, Dak Prescott, and More

Placing bets on game lines and point totals is fun, but it becomes monotonous week after week. Those who get more into gambling often veer into the player prop side of things, where you can bet on how many attempts, catches, yards, touchdowns, and more a player will have in given game.

On top of providing variety, player props change the way you look at the game before it takes place while also giving you something different to watch and root for during the game. It's a way for casual fans to get more involved and learn more.

Let's look at three quarterbacks with passing yardage over/under numbers that offer value based on their matchups. Most stats are from NFL.com, and the lines are from our FantasySP prop bet tool, which finds real Vegas numbers to compare.

Check out FantasySP's prop bet projections to find the players expected to over or underplay their over/under numbers the most each week.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills @ Atlanta Falcons

O/U – 228.5 passing yards

This doesn't seem like a lot of yards for a top passer like Allen, but he has been below that total in three of five games. Allen is averaging 243.4 passing yards per game. After a huge Week 1 with almost 400 yards, though, he has averaged just 205.8 yards in the past four games.

Atlanta was very strong as a pass defense over the first month before a Week 5 bye. The Falcons have allowed just 150.5 passing yards per game. They have also given up the second-fewest yards per pass attempt (5.8), and their 57.7% completion percentage allowed is the best in the league.

The numbers point toward an easy “under” pick; it just seems too easy, though, doesn't it? There are mitigating factors on both sides. Allen is averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt, a number bested by only six passers with more than 100 attempts. He also has the ceiling of the best quarterback in football. Do you want to bet against Allen?

The Falcons have also faced what might be the easiest set of quarterbacks of any team so far. After Baker Mayfield in Week 1, they got a string of J.J. McCarthy, Bryce Young, and Marcus Mariota heading into the bye. We can't necessarily discount everything they've done because of that group, but Atlanta will look at least a little worse moving forward.

And yet, I keep coming back to the under. If we just looked at the numbers blindly without knowing the quarterback, I don't think I'd even question it. Allen's name is the thing pushing me away.

I'm willing to trust the numbers and go against a superstar and reigning MVP here. There's decent value on Allen having another modest passing day while doing more with his legs, maybe even as his team finds a relatively easy victory. That's a common outcome with this team.

Best Bet: Josh Allen UNDER 228.5 passing yards

Dillon Gabriel, Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers

O/U – 183.5 passing yards

If you thought betting against Allen was nerve-wracking, how about counting on a rookie playing for the Cleveland Browns to hit the over? Gabriel is making his second start here against the Steelers after last week's narrow loss to Minnesota.

Gabriel threw for 190 yards on 5.8 yards per attempt. He did throw for two touchdowns, but he completed less than 58% of his passes. It was a trying day against a tough Vikings defense.

The matchup here is much nicer, as the Steelers have allowed the fifth-most yards per pass attempt (8.2) and third-most passing yards per game. All four teams they faced (they also had a Week 5 bye) have thrown for at least 218 yards, and the past three have all gone for 268 or more. Pittsburgh is allowing 282.8 passing yards per game.

Like the Allen conundrum, this comes down to the name. If it were just a blind test, the “over” seems like the obvious answer. There is a super-low floor for Gabriel, though, and in just his second start, he could get overwhelmed by a Steelers team that still has stars like T.J. Watt.

With 30 attempts, Gabriel would have to average just over 6.1 yards per attempt to hit this number. At the 5.8 number he averaged in Week 1, he would need 32 throws to top 183.5 yards. Gabriel threw 33 passes last week, and the Browns have averaged 39.4 attempts per game.

This seems very doable. With rookies Harold Fannin and Isaiah Bond becoming part of the solution, Gabriel has a decent group of pass catchers. With a great matchup and a low over/under number, this could end up as an easy win, even if Gabriel has a subpar day.

Best Bet: Dillon Gabriel OVER 183.5 passing yards

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers

O/U – 247.5 passing yards

Prescott is second in the league with 1,356 passing yards, an average of 271.2 per game. He fell short of this 247.5 number in Week 1 against the Eagles and Week 5 against the Jets but topped it in Weeks 2, 3, and 4 with 361, 251, and 319 yards, respectively.

Prescott has done his damage by volume and not efficiency, throwing the ball 12 more times than anyone else in football entering Sunday. He is averaging a very middling 7.0 yards per attempt.

The Panthers seem like a group that would be ripe for the pickings, but they actually grade out well enough against the pass, sitting right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed. The only team to top 220 yards against Carolina was Miami last week, when they went for 256. Trevor Lawrence, Michael Penix, and Drake Maye all threw for 203 yards or fewer against the Panthers.

So, can Carolina be the team to finally slow down Prescott? Part of the reason he is throwing so much is because the Cowboys give up as much passing production as they get themselves. Dallas has allowed more than 30 points in three of their five games.

It's less likely that they will go down multiple scores against Carolina, but the Panthers have played a few good games, including shutting out the Falcons 30-0 back in Week 3. Less offense for Carolina might mean less offense for Dallas, something that would hurt Prescott's total.

Caught between over and under, I went to the offensive/defensive line metrics. According to ESPN, the Dallas offensive line ranks fifth in pass block win rate and ninth in run block win rate. Carolina's defensive line is 29th in pass rush win rate and 30th in run stop win rate.

I still see the Panthers as a below-average defense that will regress further down the board the longer the season goes. With Prescott racking up yards and a chance for another big game here, I'm feeling his over this week.

Best Bet: Dak Prescott OVER 247.5 passing yards