Fantasy Football Week 6 Running Back Who Should I Start? Derrick Henry, Rico Dowdle, and More
Comparing Quinshon Judkins to five running backs that he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP Who Should I Start? tool.
Since he debuted back in Week 2, Cleveland Browns running back Quinshon Judkins has been one of the most popular names in fantasy football. That has put him all over our FantasySP start/sit tool not just this week but for most of the past month now.
First, it was about how much he would see the field compared to veteran Jerome Ford and fellow rookie Dylan Sampson. After Judkins dominated the backfield work for several consecutive weeks, now the question is more about where he ranks among the top 20 RBs in fantasy football.
Let's look at Judkins and five running backs who he has been compared to often on the start/sit tool. We will do a head-to-head quick-hit start/sit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
Check out FantasySP's Who Should I Start? tool to compare players and help make your toughest lineup decisions each week!
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Judkins has simply taken over the Cleveland backfield and excelled while doing it. He has 72 carries versus just 18 for Ford and 19 for Sampson, though they have split the work in the passing game: 13 receptions for Ford, 12 for Sampson, and nine for Judkins.
The second-round rookie has also been by far the most efficient of those players, averaging 4.8 yards per rush while Ford is at 3.1 and Sampson all the way down at 1.8. There is no more question about who leads this backfield: Judkins is the guy.
The Steelers are right in the middle in terms of yards per rush attempt allowed, and they have given up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to running backs.
It has been something of a tale of two seasons early on, as the RBs for the Jets and Seahawks ran for a combined 249 rushing yards on 4.5 per attempt in Weeks 1 and 2 against Pittsburgh, then the Patriots and Vikings combined for just 132 yards on a 3.3 average in Weeks 3 and 4. The receiving yardage was opposite, as the latter two teams did better than the former two in the passing game.
This is a middling matchup, though the Steelers were trending the right way before their Week 5 bye. Judkins is still a good fantasy option because of his volume and efficiency so far.
J.K. Dobbins, Denver Broncos @ New York Jets (in London)
Dobbins has mostly dominated the backfield in Denver, playing at least 18 more snaps than rookie RJ Harvey in three of the five games and out-carrying the young back 77 to 31. Both players have been effective (5.2 yards per carry for Dobbins and 4.8 for Harvey), and the rookie has done more in the passing game (12 receptions to six), but Dobbins has stood out as the clear top guy and close to a weekly fantasy starter.
The Jets have allowed the 13th-most yards per rush attempt and ninth-most fantasy points per week to running backs. It's not a fantastic matchup, but New York offers a better-than-average outlook. While they have been good against backs in the passing game, the Jets have given up over 100 rushing yards in three of five games and four rushing touchdowns to RBs.
Advice: This is a tough one. I see both Dobbins and Judkins as close to weekly staters; I want both in my lineup in my RB2 and flex spots. If you have to choose between them, though, I'll give the slight advantage to the Denver back and say start J.K. Dobbins over Quinshon Judkins.
Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys
Dowdle had the performance of his career last week in relief of the injured Chuba Hubbard, running for 206 yards and a touchdown and adding three receptions for 28 yards. It's about as surprising a performance as we've had in recent history, as Dowdle had been ineffective in limited work up to that point after being very average in Dallas last season.
Last week was against the sieve-like Dolphins, and this one comes against his old team the Cowboys, who are right in the middle in yards per attempt allowed but have given up the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. They are susceptible to the pass, as Dallas has given up the most yards per pass attempt overall and at least 45 receiving yards to opposing backs in four of their five games.
Advice: Start Quinshon Judkins over Rico Dowdle. Despite Dowdle's decent outlook, he's not going to repeat last week's performance, and he has a lower floor and ceiling with the Panthers.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Seattle Seahawks
Etienne is another guy dominating his team's backfield, carrying the ball 77 times to just 25 for Bhayshul Tuten and three for LeQuint Allen Jr. The two rookies split snaps behind him, but Etienne is the clear top guy and is leading the group in receiving, even as none of the three has done much there (Etienne has just nine receptions).
The Seahawks offer a tough matchup, as they have allowed the second fewest yards per rush attempt, though they are in the middle in fantasy points given up to backs. That fantasy disparity comes from the passing game, where the 49ers and Steelers RBs combined for 19 receptions and 211 receiving yards. It has been better since then: the backs for the Saints, Cardinals, and Bucs combined for just 81 yards on 17 catches the past three weeks.
Advice: Start Quinshon Judkins over Travis Etienne. The former has the better matchup, but Etienne has been good enough to consider even with a tougher opponent. While Etienne might be the better guy in PPR, I'll favor Judkins overall.
Breece Hall, New York Jets vs. Denver Broncos (in London)
Hall now has the top RB spot on the team all to himself after Braelon Allen was put on IR last week. The player who will steal rush attempts (and touchdowns) is now Justin Fields, who has over 200 rushing yards and three touchdowns in his four games. Hall will lead the backfield both carrying and catching the ball, sitting as the second or third option in the passing game.
Denver is a little better than average against the run, allowing the 12th-fewest yards per carry and 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They are a better pass defense, though backs have been able to find a little success against them in the passing game, averaging close to 50 yards per game with two receiving touchdowns.
Advice: Start Quinshon Judkins over Breece Hall. I like Hall, and he will touch the ball, but Judkins has the better matchup and floor this week.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens vs. Los Angeles Rams
We'll make this one quick: Henry has struggled outside of a phenomenal Week 1, Lamar Jackson is out hurt, and the Rams have a strong run defense, allowing the fourth-fewest yards per rush attempt and second-fewest fantasy points per game to RBs. I don't want any part of Henry this week.
Advice: Start Quinshon Judkins over Derrick Henry.
