Fantasy Football Quarterback Bust Candidates: Who Fits Disappointing Profiles from 2024?

Fantasy football draft season is all about potential and hope. It's not that much different from the actual NFL Draft in that every owner feels like a winner by the end and can picture a championship run, even if things don't go perfectly.

There will inevitably be players who underperform and overperform based on draft position, and that's what we are here to look at today is quarterbacks who were significantly worse than that ADP without missing major time with injury.

That's an important part: any player who gets injured is going to underperform, but that doesn't teach us lessons. We are here to look at guys who played the whole season (or most of it) and still disappointed to see if we can glean any clues as to what happened and who might suffer the same fate in 2025.

Let's look at three quarterbacks who underperformed their draft slots in 2024, investigate what went wrong, and see who might fit the same frame this year. Average draft positions are our own here at FantasySP, and past fantasy rankings are from FantasyPros.

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Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs – Drafted as QB2, Finished as QB11

Since he took over as starter in 2018, here are Mahomes' fantasy finishes among quarterbacks: 1st, 8th, 4th, 4th, 1st, 8th, 11th. Mahomes hasn't gotten any worse as a quarterback the past two seasons; his team won then lost the Super Bowl. He hasn't had the same caliber of weapons, though, and has seen more running quarterbacks move up the fantasy ranks.

The obvious loss was Tyreek Hill, who moved from Kansas City to Miami before the 2022 season. Mahomes finished as the top fantasy quarterback in 2022, but Travis Kelce operated as a true WR1, setting career highs in targets (152), receptions (110), and touchdowns (12) and gaining his second-most yards (1,338). Kelce took a steep drop over the past two seasons, last year setting career lows in yards, touchdowns, and yards per catch.

Without a top receiver and not gaining many rushing yards, Mahomes was left more to piece things together by committee and work his magic (along with being surrounded by a lot of talent elsewhere, like the interior offensive line and defense). He's still likely a top-10 fantasy quarterback or close to it, but it's tough to count on him as a guaranteed top option the way he was for most of his first five seasons.

2025 Comparison: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers

Purdy was spoiled with a bevy of weapons for his first few years, maybe the best group of playmakers in the league during that time. He still has George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey should return from injury (though that's a risky proposition), but Purdy has a weaker receiving group than at any other time in his career.

Deebo Samuel Sr. was traded to the Commanders in the offseason, and Brandon Aiyuk is recovering from a major knee injury suffered last season and isn't projected to return until around Week 6 or so. When he does come back, it will likely take time for him to get up to full speed, maybe even the entire season.

Jauan Jennings is talented, but he was previously the team's WR3 and will be thrust into more of a top role. Ricky Pearsall was a first-round pick last year, but he was fairly anonymous as a rookie, and he will be asked to fill a much bigger role right away. Purdy has a worse receiving group and will only pick up rushing yards at an average-or-worse level, so he could see a decline the way Mahomes did.

C.J. Stroud - Drafted as QB5, Finished as QB19

Stroud had a fantastic rookie season, throwing for over 4,000 yards at 8.2 yards per attempt with 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He finished at fantasy QB11 despite missing two full games and most of a third. Big things were expected heading into his second season, especially with the addition of Stefon Diggs, but Stroud regressed in essentially every area, finishing with just 3,700 yards even though he played every game, seeing his yards per attempt fall to 7.0, and throwing 20 touchdowns to 12 interceptions.

The offensive line was a mess, but it was in 2023 also, and Stroud overcame. Diggs got hurt, along with Tank Dell, leaving Nico Collins as the lone real receiving threat. Stroud was due some regression, but he became an average-or-worse passer after being above-average as a rookie.

2025 Comparison: Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders, and Bo Nix, Denver Broncos

Daniels was phenomenal last year, not only a top-five fantasy quarterback but also leading his team to the NFC Championship Game. He runs a lot, unlike Stroud, so he is unlikely to fall off to the same degree, but he completed 69% of his passes with only nine interceptions, numbers that could easily regress simply due to bad luck.

I'm still in on Daniels as a top-five fantasy QB heading into this year, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him fall back a little rather than excel to a new level. He even got a new veteran receiver in Samuel, the same as Stroud got with Diggs; there are a lot of similarities here.

Nix didn't get a new weapon, but he is another player who was good as a rookie and is expected to improve because that's the natural progression of things. He was a little worse than average as a passer but helped make up the difference by running the ball, giving him that same cushion as Daniels. Nix has an ADP of QB8, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him fall outside the top 10 just simply by having worse luck after so much went right for Denver last season.

Jordan Love - Drafted as QB10, Finished at QB17

Love finished 2023 as hot as any quarterback in the league. He was QB5 over the full season and bumped up a spot to QB4 from Week 7 on (after his bye). Big things were expected last year, but Love dropped from averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game in 2023 to 16.3 in 2024.

Love averaged 8.0 yards per pass attempt, an above-average mark, but he lost about two-thirds of his rushing production, and though he missed two games, he was down overall. He also didn't find that same late-season magic, falling to QB22 if we use that same Week 7 cutoff.

Part of the problem was not having a top receiver, but Love also was just due to come back to Earth a bit after a high-level performance.

2025 Comparison: Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks

Darnold switched teams this offseason, so it's not a perfect comparison, but Darnold was strong all last season and bumped up a bit from Week 7 on, moving from QB9 over the full season to QB7 in that final stretch. We remember his poor performances in Week 18 and again in the playoffs, but Darnold played really good up until that point.

He is now taking a step down in pretty much ever facet. He is going from one of the best offensive minds in football (head coach Kevin O'Connell) to a defensive head coach in Seattle and a less renown play caller (offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak). He is stepping down from Justin Jefferson as his top target to Jaxon Smith-Njigba, a fine player but not on that top-tier level. Darnold will also likely see a step down in offensive line play, as the Vikings ranked second in pass blocking last year while the Seahawks were 21st (according to ESPN).

While Darnold will probably go undrafted in most fantasy leagues, there will be some owners who remember his high points and expect bigger things. There's a good chance he falls back to his previous level, though, with a much less friendly group around him.