Fantasy Football Week 11 Start/Sit Decisions: Tee Higgins vs. Jauan Jennings, DeAndre Hopkins, Khalil Shakir, Darnell Mooney

Heading into Week 11, the FantasySP team has you covered for all your fantasy football start/sit questions! We’ve broken down many of this week’s toughest players to consider, so check out the Start/Sit section first. If you can’t find the questions you’re looking for there, the Start/Sit Tool is your friend! It uses a combination of projections, stats, and the decisions of other fantasy football managers to help you make the right choices. 

But if you’re deciding whether to trust Tee Higgins in his first week back from a quad injury, this article is for you! The Bengals’ WR2 has been excellent when he plays this season, but he does have a history of returning to the field only to play a very limited role. Let’s break down whether you should start him over other fantasy football options.

Looking for more help with your toughest fantasy football Start/Sit decisions? Be sure to check out the FantasySP Start/Sit Tool!

Tee Higgins Week 11 Fantasy Outlook

He’s only appeared in five games so far this season, but Higgins has consistently put up fantasy football numbers when he is active. Of course, the first key to fantasy success is always volume, and Higgins has had it in spades. Across those five games, he has posted a 27% target share, a 40% air yards share, and a 38% first-read target share. Those numbers rank seventh, 12th, and third among receivers for the season. Not only that, all three of those marks actually lead the Bengals (both across those five weeks and for the season) — that’s right, Higgins has statistically served as Cincinnati’s WR1 over Ja’Marr Chase.

Now, I’m not saying you should start Higgins over Chase or that I expect this target distribution to continue. But this just goes to show how involved Higgins has been in the Bengals’ offense. He has turned all of that usage into 13.3 Half-PPR points per game, which lands him as the WR13 for the season. 

Now, as I mentioned in the intro, Higgins does have a history of being “active” but playing a severely limited or decoy role. However, I don’t expect that to be the case this week. The fact that he was ruled active well in advance of today’s matchup is a great signal that he is actually fully healthy (or as close as any NFL player can be to fully healthy during the season). 

One slightly concerning thing for Tee this week is his matchup, as the Chargers have been one of the league’s toughest defenses so far this season. They rank first by a mile in scoring defense, having given up just 13 points per game, and they also rank second in dropback EPA allowed. With that said, LA actually ranks as a slightly above-average matchup in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, so this matchup may not be as bad as it first looks. The Bengals also have a healthy 23.5-point team total, so Vegas expects them to be able to move the ball.

Putting it all together, I am very high on Higgins for this week. I’m not concerned that he will play a limited role, so I expect him to produce as he has produced in his five healthy games: like a high-end WR2. Most of the players below (who are commonly being compared with Higgins in the Start/Sit Tool) are not the same caliber of fantasy option — I’m going to be comfortably siding with Tee in most cases. Still, let’s break down each matchup one by one. 

Tee Higgins vs. Jauan Jennings

I know I just said that I was going to easily pick Higgins in most of these matchups, but Jennings immediately presents a very tough decision. I am very high on the 49ers receiver, who has also been straight-up excellent whenever he is on the field. He ranks seventh among qualified receivers in PFF Receiving Grade, fifth in yards per route run, and eighth in Fantasy Points Data’s Route Win Rate. 

For the season, Jennings has averaged 12.0 Half-PPR points per game on a respectable 21% target share. However, most of his games have been spent as the 49ers’ WR3 behind Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk (Aiyuk is out for the rest of the season). If we look just at his games without Deebo or Aiyuk (aka the games in which he played a full-time WR role), he has averaged an absurd 26.9 Half-PPR points per game on an elite 35% target share.

Of course, this is just a two-game sample size that includes a huge outlier 41-point performance. I don’t expect Jennings to be literally the fantasy WR1 for the rest of the season. However, even just looking at his role last week, his first game without Aiyuk, gives huge room for optimism. He led San Francisco in route participation rate (88%), target share (31%), and first-read target share (39%). Those are monstrous numbers, and that last one in particular indicates that Kyle Shanahan is not hesitating to scheme up targets for his new X receiver. 

For this week, Jennings gets a matchup against the Seahawks, who rank solidly above average in points given up to opposing WRs. We can also be slightly more confident that he will see a solid target share, as George Kittle has been ruled out. With that in mind, I’m actually going to back Jennings in this first battle.

Start: Jauan Jennings

Tee Higgins vs. Khalil Shakir

This decision is not as hard as the first one. There are some reasons to like Shakir, who has maintained a solid 20% target share in the Bills’ offense. He’s a dynamic playmaker with the ball in his hands and should see extra targets with both Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman (and potentially Amari Cooper) out this week. 

However, his usage is mostly by the line of scrimmage, as he has an absolutely minuscule 3.5-yard ADOT for the season. That’s less than a third of Higgins’ ADOT, which is up at a solid 10.7. That means even if we project Shakir for more targets (which is debatable, given that the Bengals are the league’s pass-happiest team while the Bills are closer to average), there is still a real chance Higgins outperforms him. Add in the fact that Buffalo has a tough matchup with the Chiefs’ defense, and I’m not thinking twice about this.

Start: Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins vs. DeAndre Hopkins

Since arriving in Kansas City, DeAndre Hopkins’ results have been mixed. He played a very limited role in his first outing, which was to be expected given he had just joined the team a few days prior. In his second game, Week 9, Hopkins’ role expanded, and he exploded for eight catches, 86 yards, and two touchdowns. It looked as though he was on his way to re-establishing himself as an elite fantasy receiver.  

However, Week 10 threw some cold water on that theory. Hopkins actually trended downwards in terms of usage, posting just a 59% route participation rate after running a route on 62% of Patrick Mahomes' dropbacks in his breakout game. There’s a chance this was still a result of him learning Kansas City’s system on the fly, but it’s also very possible that the reigning Super Bowl champs want to use their veteran receiver as sparingly as possible to keep him healthy for the playoffs.

With that in mind, I can’t pick D-Hop here. We know his upside is as elite as anyone’s, but Higgins has massive upside as well. It’s nearly impossible to produce consistent fantasy results on a route participation rate of around 60%, and we have no real reason to expect anything else from the 32-year-old. 

Start: Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins vs. Darnell Mooney

It’s wild that this is the case, but Mooney is actually going to put up more of a fight than D-Hop. Although he is the Falcons’ WR2, Atlanta’s offense has been heavily condensed, meaning Mooney has seen very solid usage all season long. He has a 91% route participation rate, a 22% target share, and a 37% air yards share that actually leads the team. The Falcons have been pass-heavy enough that he also ranks 19th overall in targets per game.

However, this is a tough matchup for Atlanta, as the Broncos’ defense ranks as the seventh-worst schedule-adjusted matchup for receivers. At least Mooney will likely get to avoid Patrick Surtain, who should mostly match up with Drake London. Still, the rest of Denver’s secondary is not a pushover, either. 

At the end of the day, this is a matchup of two of the best-utilized WR2s in the league. But, between the two, I think Higgins is the better player … and has the better matchup … and the better quarterback.

Start: Tee Higgins

Tee Higgins vs. DK Metcalf

Now we’re talking. Metcalf has missed the Seahawks’ last two contests with a knee injury, but he is back this week. Jaxon Smith-Njigba did have a breakout game in his absence, but in my mind, Metcalf is still the undisputed WR1 in Seattle’s offense. And that offense is one of the few that can rival the Begnals for pass volume, ranking second to Cincinnati in pass rate over expected. 

In that high-volume offense, Metcalf has posted excellent usage numbers: a 23% target share, a 44% air yards share, and a 27% first-read target share. His 14.0 Half-PPR point-per-game average also just beats out Higgins’ average for the season. 

Seattle’s matchup with the 49ers isn’t ideal, as San Francisco ranks as the second-worst adjusted matchup for wide receivers so far this season. But they rank just 11th-best in EPA per dropback allowed — this isn’t a true shutdown pass defense. This is one of the toughest decisions of this article, but I have to lean toward the player who is actually the WR1 in his offense and is scoring more points per game.  

Start: DK Metcalf

Tee Higgins vs. Jayden Reed

We’re ending on a bit of a dud here, as Jayden Reed is nowhere near Higgins in my rankings. In fact, I listed Reed as a Sit in my Week 11 WR Start/Sit article. Reed has been inconsistent this season, a result of the fact that only playing in 11 personnel has kept him at a 72% route participation rate. Despite earning targets at a decent clip, he has a just-okay 17% target share; a relatively low ADOT means that corresponds to just a 17% air yards share.

Making matters even worse for Reed, the Bears’ defense is one of the best in the league at defending the slot, where he runs 79% of his routes. Chicago gives up just 5.2 points per game total to players running out of the slot, and they tie for being the worst schedule-adjusted matchup against slot WRs.

Reed does have explosive ability with the ball in his hands, which could make this call look very stupid in just a few hours. But I’m not thinking twice about this one. 

Start: Tee Higgins

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.