Week 17 NFL PrizePicks Props: Brock Purdy, Rhamondre Stevenson, DK Metcalf & More!
PrizePicks is offering tons of great prop bets for NFL Week 17 just like they do each and every week. It’s a fun and easy site to make bets on. They give you a stat for each player and you pick More or Less. It doesn’t get any simpler than that.
Week 17 NFL PrizePicks Props To Target
Mac Jones, New England Patriots (225.5 Passing Yards)
The Miami Dolphins are falling apart at the seams after losing four in a row and their starting quarterback. This is a demoralized team that has consistently looked flat on both sides of the ball when Tua Tagovailoa isn’t under center. They are allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game this season and have been getting worse as the injuries continue to pile up in their secondary. Despite having an arm like a wet noodle even Jones should be able to take advantage of this terrible defense.
He has been able to hit this number as of late topping 226 yards in four of his last six games including last week against the Bengals. Jones does hit on these prop bets most of the time too. According to our NFL Over/Under Prop Bet Rankings tool he has surpassed his passing yard line in 55% of games this year hitting in six of 11 matchups.
The Pick: More than 225.5 Passing Yards
Check out the top legal online sportsbook offers and promotions in the United States!
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (208.5 Passing Yards)
Purdy will be taking on another demoralized team with a bad defense. The Las Vegas Raiders benched Derek Carr this week and the team appears to be less than pleased with the decision based on emotional public outcry. Vegas is allowing the sixth-most passing yards this season at over 244 yards per game. Significantly more than this line.
In four games this season, Purdy has topped this passing total in three of them including last week against the Washington Commanders’ seventh-ranked pass defense. He has also seen his passing totals rise in all but one game since taking over the job. You may ask why this bar is so low against a bad defense this week. According to our NFL Over/Under Prop Bet Rankings tool he has only hit the over once this year in three starts and the average mark to hit is over 217.2 yards. Because he’s not hitting the line likely dropped. However, based on our data it has dropped too far.
The Pick: More than 208.5 Passing Yards
Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta Falcons (76.5 Rushing Yards)
Allgeier has seen career-high carries in each of the past two games and has taken those 35 carries for 213 yards. Last week he rushed for 74 yards on the Ravens’ third-ranked rush defense. This week he draws the Cardinals who rank 12th against the run and have gotten worse as a unit as the season wears on. Our NFL Over/Under Prop Bet Rankings tool also loves this bet as it shows that Allgeier has hit the over on his rushing yard bets 75% of the time this season. He’s been consistently outperforming Vegas’s expectations throughout 2022.
The Pick: More than 76.5 Rushing Yards
Learn more about our fantasy football tools and products!
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England Patriots (56.5 Rushing Yards)
We are going with our gut a bit more on this one. Granted the Dolphins’ rush defense is much better than their pass defense. They actually rank 10th in the NFL. So the numbers to work out here. However, the bigger issue for Rhamondre may be his head coach. Bill Belichick is known for not tolerating fumbling and there’s a real chance Stevenson is punished this week. He fumbled twice last week including in the red zone to end what was shaping up to be a game-winning drive. That is now three fumbles in the past four games. We may see a lot more Kevin Harris and Pierre Strong on Sunday.
According to our NFL Over/Under Prop Bet Rankings tool picking the over on Stevenson’s rushing yards is a bad bet too. He has only hit the over in 36% of games this season. That's five for 14. He’s also only topped this mark once in the past six weeks.
The Pick: Less than 56.5 Rushing Yards
Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (30.5 Receiving Yards)
Playoff Lenny looks like he’s back in the driver’s seat of the Bucs’ backfield. Especially as the pass catcher. He’s coming off a game in which he caught nine of ten targets for 90 yards. Over the past four games, he has seen 28 targets and hit the 30-yard mark in all four games. There is no reason to believe he won’t see the same volume this week against the Panthers. For most of last week, he looked like the only thing working in the offense. According to our NFL Over/Under Prop Bet Rankings tool he has hit the over in receiving yards in 10 of 14 games this season. That’s a 71% hit rate.
The Pick: More than 30.5 Receiving Yards
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (70.5 Receiving Yards)
We are betting against Metcalf this week because he’s taking on a brutal set of corners this week. The New York Jets have allowed the second-fewest receiving yards to wideouts this year behind only the Denver Broncos. He is likely to draw Sauce Gardener which is a particularly bad matchup this week. We are confidently taking the under here.
The Pick: Less than 70.5 Receiving Yards
Fantasy SP has worked diligently to bring you next-level sports betting analytics, prop betting tools, public betting splits, and so much more! Become an Edge+ member today!
