The NBA’s Worst Defenses Are Your Secret Weapon for Tuesday’s Fantasy Basketball Slate
Streaming players on three NBA teams with good matchups on Tuesday.
I use defensive rating as one of the main metrics for picking teams to stream against each day. In that endeavor, we are focusing on the worst teams with the most porous defenses. The real story is at the top of the list, though.
The Oklahoma City Thunder have the best defensive rating in basketball by more than three points (105.4 points per 100 possessions). Detroit is second at 108.6, then teams start grouping together at third, where San Antonio is at 111.5, Toronto 112.0, Phoenix 112.1, and so on.
Great defense is a sign of championship contention; it's not just a saying that defense wins championships. Those teams at the top also lead their respective conference in both record and point differential, making upcoming Thunder/Pistons matchups on February 25 and March 30 potential NBA Finals previews.
Shifting to fantasy basketball, let's look at streaming players from three NBA teams with good matchups on Tuesday. We'll focus on the guys who get on the court and are widely available in fantasy leagues. Most stats are from NBA.com.
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LA Clippers @ Utah Jazz
Utah plays at the third-fastest pace and has the worst defensive rating in the league. After hanging around the play-in for a bit earlier in the season, the Jazz have lost six of their past seven and 12 of their last 15, falling well below any postseason range and in position to keep their top-eight-protected first-round pick.
The Clippers have the opposite story, starting as one of the worst teams in the league (by record at least) but now having won eight of their last nine games and 15 of the past 18. Is it as simple as blaming everything on Chris Paul, who last played on December 1, about three weeks before this started? I'd like to think so (but not really).
Guard
Dunn left Sunday's game against Brooklyn and is questionable here. He's more of a defensive force than a statistical contributor, leaving him as a low-level fantasy guy despite playing heavy minutes.
Miller has been getting a lot of minutes since the first week of January, as injuries built up and Paul made his exit. Over his past nine games, Miller averaged 28.9 minutes and 14.7 points per game, and with injuries still an issue, Miller is likely to get plenty of time again today. Christie is a deep reserve player who might get some minutes if Dunn is out, but he isn't a guy to trust in fantasy.
Forward
Bogdan Bodganovic hasn't played since December 26, and while they say he could make his return here, that has been the story for a few games now. Sanders has been a beneficiary, playing at least 24 minutes in nine of 13 January games. He is inconsistent statistically but has value as a deep-league streamer. Batum doesn't do enough at his advanced age to be on the fantasy radar.
Center
Lopez is another guy losing fantasy value because of aging and reduced minutes. He had some valuable games when Ivica Zubac was out injured, but that's the only time that Lopez is more than a desperation option.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. New Orleans Pelicans
New Orleans plays at the 10th-fastest pace and has the fourth-worst defensive rating. The Pelicans are one of six teams with fewer than 15 wins; we can call them the leaders in the race for the top overall pick. The problem for New Orleans is that their first rounder is going to the Hawks no matter where it lands.
OKC is still flush with future first-round picks while attempting to defend their championship and sporting the best record in the league and by far the best point differential. Prior to Monday's games, the Thunder's plus-12.9 differential was more than five points better than the second-place Pistons (7.3).
Guard
Injuries are a major factor at both guard and forward in this game in determining who might have fantasy value. Mitchell hasn't played since January 21 and is questionable here. He's the best of the group if he plays, but Mitchell needs to be confirmed in the lineup. Wallace left Sunday's game and is listed as day-to-day; even if he plays, he's not much of a statistical player and probably not a fantasy option (though other injuries could help).
Caruso last played on January 19; like Wallace, he's more of a defensive player who doesn't put up a lot of fantasy numbers, leaving him as a lower-level streamer. Joe is the only one from this group without an injury designation, and while that makes him the safest best to play, Joe doesn't have a lot of fantasy value unless the other three listed here are all out.
Forward
The injury issues stretch into the forward positions, as guys like Dort, Williams, and Caruso (among others) can slot in at both guard and forward in fantasy and shift between the wing positions in real life. Dort is a starter and plays the most but doesn't put up a lot of numbers, falling more into the Wallace and Caruso camp as very useful role players.
Wiggins scores just over 10 points per game, but that's about all he adds, limiting his fantasy value. Williams is a deeper bench player, but he has gotten more minutes recently due to injuries, playing 28 minutes and scoring double figures in each of the past three games; he only reached both those milestones one other time this season. He has intrigue here if multiple guys are out.
Center
One more injury name: Isaiah Hartenstein hasn't played since December 28, leaving more center minutes for Chet Holmgren, along with Williams. The healthy big man has still been limited in his minutes and production, leaving him off most fantasy radars. Carlson is a bench player getting more time because of injuries, but he's not worthy of fantasy consideration.
Portland Trail Blazers @ Washington Wizards
The Wizards play at the seventh-fastest pace and have the second-worst defensive rating. After spending several days tied with a few teams for the fewest wins (10), Washington now sits alone at the bottom. It's probably the best thing for the Wizards, who have the makings of a functional roster with Trae Young and multiple high picks (including one coming this year).
The Blazers were .500 before losing to the Celtics yesterday 102-94. It might be a bit of a surprise for a team that seemed likely to tank again, but they added Jrue Holiday in the offseason to help bring together a lot of young talent, and while he has missed time with injury, Holiday is back on the court, and Portland could hold onto their postseason position.
Guard
Love averages just over 11 points and two three-pointers per game, but that's about all he offers, limiting his fantasy value. Cissoko is just a low-level producer, not on the fantasy radar in barely any leagues.
Forward
Forward is where value exists on Portland (and Camara can slot in at guard also in most leagues). Grant is another guy who only offers scoring, but he does it at a good clip, averaging 19.2 points and 2.3 three-pointers per game. Camara is at 13 points, 5.1 rebounds, 1.0 steals, and 2.5 threes per game, a decent set of numbers for a versatile fantasy player. Both these forwards are strong streamers today if you can grab them.
Center
Williams is just a backup player who doesn't get on the court enough to be a real fantasy asset. He was also questionable yesterday before playing, so his status must be monitored if you do consider him.
