Fantasy Hockey Overrated Busts: Five Players You Should Avoid

Hey folks. Fantasy league drafts are right around the corner, some already even starting. That's why we need to look at some players who I believe are being drafted too high for what they are actually going to produce this season. 

I am not saying these are bad players by any stretch of the imagination, or guys who don't belong in your fantasy league. These are players who have plenty of talent and could still have good seasons, but I believe their current ADP and projections are too high and you could be making a mistake by taking them where they are going.

I've got five players to discuss and a look at what they were able to produce last year, where they are heading into this season, and why I think fantasy managers should think twice before spending a valuable draft pick on them. Let's dive right in and take a look!

ADP is a useful guide, but it shouldn't dictate your draft. Let's break down when I want to target forwards, defensemen and goalies, when I prefer established players over youth, and how I adjust my strategy depending on whether I'm trying to win now or later.

Want to take your fantasy hockey analysis further? EDGE+ members can now chat with our AI Expert, ask follow-up questions, and dive deeper into player breakdowns with longer conversations. 

Brady Tkachuk & Matthew Tkachuk - Florida Panthers

I know this one is going to upset some people.

The Tkachuk brothers are both excellent hockey players, but I think they get way more credit in fantasy than they deserve. They are both injury prone, they take a ton of penalties, they play an extremely physical style and they can be undisciplined at times. Those things can be great in the right fantasy league, especially if you are playing in a bangers league, but I am not convinced either one is going to give you the production their current draft position suggests.

The two brothers played a combined only 91 games last season. That's a pretty big problem when you're drafting either one as a player you expect to be a major contributor to your fantasy team.

Now we get to the really interesting part.

The Tkachuks are reunited in Florida after Brady left Ottawa and joined his brother with the Panthers. It is certainly a great story, and I think most hockey fans are going to love seeing the two brothers on the same team. But from a fantasy perspective, I have some questions about how this lineup is actually going to work.

Florida already has Sam Bennett, who brings a very similar physical, aggressive style to the lineup. And let's not forget the aging Brad Marchand. Now you are adding Brady to a team that already has Matthew and Bennett, and it feels like the Panthers are leaning even harder into the bruiser style instead of simply loading up on skill and offensive talent.

The other question is how they are going to deploy the brothers. There has been plenty of speculation about them playing together, but Florida's current projected lineup has them split up, with Brady alongside Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart while Matthew is with Bennett and Carter Verhaeghe.

And honestly, I think splitting them up could make more sense.

Both players are used to being major pieces of their respective offenses, and putting them on separate lines gives Florida two physical, difficult-to-play-against scoring lines instead of putting all of that style in one place. But from a fantasy perspective, it also means we shouldn't automatically assume that the brothers are going to feed off each other offensively.

Then we have to bring the injury factor back into the conversation - 91 games between the two of them over an 82-game schedule, and that is simply not enough availability for me to feel comfortable drafting either one as high as they are going. Matthew's injury after the Four Nations Face-Off ended his regular season, while Brady also missed time after the tournament.

And that's where I think the fantasy community gives both players a little too much credit.

Even if you give both Tkachuks a completely healthy season, I don't think either one is getting close to eclipsing a point per game. Maybe I am wrong. Maybe I am biased against them. But I just don't see the offensive upside matching the price you are going to have to pay on draft day.

They are fantastic bangers league players. They will hit, they will rack up penalty minutes, they will score some goals and they will make life miserable for the opposition. I just don't think that automatically makes them elite fantasy players.

And ever since the Four Nations Face-Off, it feels like the spotlight has been on the Tkachuks constantly. Between the injuries, the drama surrounding Brady's departure from Ottawa and now the brothers being reunited in Florida, there has been a ton of attention on them.

I think the spotlight has gotten a little too hot to handle.

I would rather let someone else draft the Tkachuks at their current price and take the risk that they finally put together the monster fantasy season everyone seems to be expecting.

Mark Scheifele - Winnipeg Jets

Scheifele had an amazing season last year, and nobody is taking away from what he accomplished. He is an elite player who put up over 100 points, but I think a repeat is very unlikely.

Scheifele is 33 years old and past his prime, and I think this season will mark the beginning of his decline. You heard it here first.

The Jets are also likely taking a significant step backwards. They already missed the playoffs last season, and now Connor Hellebuyck has requested a trade. Losing their star goaltender would be a massive blow to this team and could make things even worse for Winnipeg.

I still expect Scheifele to be productive, and he could certainly finish around a point per game. But expecting another 100-point season after the year he just had is asking a lot.

Scheifele is still an elite NHL player. I just don't think his fantasy value will match his draft position this season.

Elias Pettersson - Vancouver Canucks

I have officially given up on Pettersson.

The drama surrounding Pettersson has been a massive distraction for the Canucks forcing out J.T. Miller, and it has even forced the organization to make other moves around the roster. On top of that, his production has continued to decline, and the player we once thought could become one of the best players in the league just hasn't been that guy anymore.

That has really hurt his value, both in fantasy and in real life. When you combine the declining production with all of the drama surrounding him, I just don't see enough reason to believe a major bounce back is coming. Let's face it, he's cooked.

Maybe he proves me wrong. He certainly has the talent, and we have seen what he can do when everything is clicking. But at this point, I don't want to spend a valuable draft pick hoping that the old Pettersson suddenly shows up again. Let another fantasy manager take the risk.

The former Super Swede has been one of the more disappointing fantasy players in recent years, and I think it's time we stop drafting him based on what we think he should be and start looking at what he actually is.

Jordan Kyrou - Washington Capitals

Kyrou had a difficult time in St. Louis. He struggled to find consistent production, got booed by his own fans, and eventually wanted out. It was a pretty ugly situation for a player who clearly has the talent to be an elite offensive player. He even broke down on camera talking about how much he loved the city, which made the whole situation even more difficult to watch.

Now he gets a fresh start in Washington, but I am not convinced it is the best fit for him.

The Capitals wanted Kyrou, but they also have a deep group of wingers, and I don't think his top-line role is guaranteed. His powerplay time isn't guaranteed either, and those two things could have a huge impact on his fantasy production.

I think deployment and chemistry are going to be the biggest factors for Kyrou this season. He has the talent to put up big numbers, but if he isn't getting the minutes and powerplay opportunities he needs, I don't see him suddenly becoming the elite player we have been waiting for.

Maybe Washington is exactly what Kyrou needs to turn things around. But at this point, I think it is too late for me to buy into the hype. I expect Kyrou to have a mediocre season at best, and I would rather let somebody else take the chance that he finally puts it all together.