2023 Fantasy Baseball Breakout Hitter: Jazz Chisholm Has The Makings Of A League Winner
With Opening Day right around the corner, we’re very close to the end of our preseason content schedule (and actual in-season content is coming soon!!). If you’ve missed anything, you can catch up on sleepers, busts, prospects, draft strategy, and more on our MLB home page. There’s a ton of good stuff from our staff on there that will help you get ready for your fantasy baseball drafts – and beyond.
For today, I’m going to focus on a hitter I’ve been targeting in pretty much every draft I’ve done. Said another way, I’ve gone all-in on this player, and a lot of my fantasy success (or failure) will hinge upon whether I’m right or not.
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We’ll take a look at a similar pitcher later, but my hitting spotlight is turned to Mr. Jazz Chisholm.
To start, here’s what I wrote about him in a brief “ideal draft target” blurb last week:
Chisholm provides multi-position eligibility along with a ton of upside. He’s coming off an injury-plagued season, so that’s a little worrisome. BUT he was on pace to hit 35 home runs and steal 30 bases before he got hurt. I don’t think he’s about to turn into a 30-30 guy all of a sudden, but there’s legit potential for 20-25 home runs with 25-30 steals here. That type of upside combined with dual-position eligibility in the ninth round? Sign me up.
The cover boy for MLB The Show 23 (fun fact, alert!), Chisholm is still just 25 years old and can currently be had in the ninth round of fantasy baseball drafts (current ADP of 107 according to our ADP tracker). Depending on your league, he also carries multi-position eligibility at both second base and outfield. That’s huge when you consider the dearth of elite options at second base.
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With Jose Altuve down for who-knows-how-long, Chisholm now lands as a top-3 second baseman on most draft board rankings (behind Marcus Semien and Ozzie Albies). Semien has 30-30 potential so he makes a lot of sense. However, he’s 32 years old and is going a full 65-70 picks ahead of Chisholm in most drafts. Albies is younger at 26 and also has 25 home run-15 steal potential, but again, he’s going about 50-55 picks before Chisholm.
While there are some interesting players going after Chisholm (Tommy Edman and Gleyber Torres come to mind), Jazz is where I’m planting my flag this year. He’s being criminally under-drafted right now (he should be going in the top-75 in my humble opinion) and he’s a prime candidate to benefit from the MLB rule changes that entail bigger bases and less pick-off attempts. Chisholm’s career steal success rate of 71% is a bit below the league average of 75%, but he has great speed and should be able to push for 30 steals this year.
The two things Chisholm has going against him: he’s on a bad team (sorry, Marlins fans), and he’s coming off a stress fracture in his lower back AND a torn meniscus in his right knee on which he had surgery. That’s obviously nothing to sneeze at, but he’s been reported to be at 100 percent and is young enough that I’m willing to take the risk.
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While a 30-30 season might be a lot to ask from Chisholm, he cut down on his strikeouts last season (read: better on-base percentage that should lead to more steals) and was hitting more fly balls (read: more home run potential). We’re still looking at something like a .250-.255 average and a depressed runs scored and RBI potential due to the lineup he’s hitting in, Chisholm has a very realistic chance at putting up a line of .250, 80 runs, 25 home runs, 70 RBI, and 25 steals. All that while providing multi-position value! That’s an absolute steal around ADP 107, and it’s the type of production that could win a lot of fantasy baseball leagues.
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