Fantasy Football Week 17 Running Back Start/Sit: TreVeyon Henderson, Rico Dowdle, and More

This is what it all comes down to — Week 17, aka the fantasy football championship round. There's no worse time to have a dud in your lineup or a massive score on your bench. Of course, these outcomes are inevitable in this high-variance game we love. But this start/sit article is here to help you avoid them if at all possible. 

First, however, I'd like to take a brief look back at Week 16's results…actually, given how they look, I wouldn't like to, but I will anyway. On the Start side, RJ Harvey (20.1 half-PPR points) smashed, Aaron Jones (10.3) was okay, and Michael Carter (6.5) didn't do much. That's already not great, but things get even worse with my Sit picks. Ashton Jeanty was the literal RB1 on the week with 31.3 points, Jaylen Warren wasn't far behind at 28.1, and Omarion Hampton (16.0) was a top-20 back.

Hopefully, if you're reading this, you were either smart enough to ignore my recommendations or advanced to the championship round regardless. It's time to bounce back with some better picks for the most important week of the season. Let's get started. 

For more help with your toughest Week 17 Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP's NFL Start/Sit tool!

Running Backs To Start Week 17

Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants

This week's matchup between the Giants and Raiders is setting up to be an all-time tankathon. The loser of this one has the inside track to the first-overall pick, and both seem to be doing their best to be that team. The Raiders have shut down Brock Bowers and Maxx Crosby (the latter against his wishes), while the Giants seem to be shutting down Jaxson Dart without actually shutting him down.

The big winner of all this is Tracy. The sophomore RB has taken over as the Giants' lead rusher, with rush shares of 75% and 57% over the last two weeks. He also saw two targets last week, good for a 15% target share given New York's absurdly run-heavy approach. 

Of course, his matchup is also ideal. The Raiders' defense has allowed the ninth most points per game to opposing RBs this season, and that number is only going up with Crosby out. Tracy is currently being started in under 40% of ESPN leagues, but he is a very solid RB2 option this week. 

Michael Carter, Arizona Cardinals

As mentioned in the intro, I had Carter as a Start last week, and he let me down. But I'm willing to give the former Jet one final shot this week. His usage in Week 16 wasn't really that bad. He led Arizona's backfield in snap share (54%), carries (11), route rate (52%), and targets (two). His backfield rush share was just 50%, as both Corey Kiner and Emari Demercado were involved, but that's still not too terrible.

Carter takes this decent usage into a dream matchup, as the Cardinals face the Bengals this week. Cincinnati's defense allows 28.3 half-PPR points per game to opposing backs, by far the most of any team in the league. In this spot, Carter is a high-end RB3 or even a backend RB2.

The Patriots' RB1, New England Patriots

Right now, we don't know who will lead the Patriots' backfield this week. Rookie TreVeyon Henderson suffered a concussion in their Week 16 game, but he is listed as questionable after practicing in full on Thursday. If Henderson sits, Rhamondre Stevenson should dominate touches, and this blurb is about him. If the rookie plays, I expect him to lead the backfield, so just pretend his name is in the heading. 

The big reason that both New England backs are so tempting this week is the matchup. The Patriots are facing the lowly Jets, who have somehow gotten even worse with Brady Cook under center. New York allows the fourth-most points per game to opposing backs, and the Patriots have a massive 28-point team total. All signs point to this being a smash spot for whoever is leading the way in New England's rushing attack, so check the injury report on Sunday morning, then fire them up. 

Running Backs To Sit Week 17

Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since it went so well for me last week, I'm making some bold Sit picks with championships on the line. On the surface, Bucky Irving has seen excellent usage in recent weeks, with 35 carries for a 72% RB rush share over his last two games.

But RB usage isn't just about carries. Despite being a dual-threat back, the second-year RB has seen just three targets on a 38% route participation rate over those two weeks — Rachaad White (40% route rate) is the team's preferred passing-down option. 

Just as importantly, none of Irving's 35 carries has come at the goal line. The Buccaneers have had 14 snaps and seven RB carries inside the 10-yard line over the last two weeks. Sean Tucker has played 10 of the snaps and handled six of the carries…and White claimed the seventh carry on two snaps, leaving Irving with two snaps and zero touches in the most important area of the field.

Of course, Irving is still capable of breaking a big play (or two), especially against the Dolphins' defense. He's not a must-bench, but given that his usage is essentially all empty-calorie carries, he's not the must-start he appears to be at first glance either.

Breece Hall, New York Jets

Over the last three weeks (the three games started by UDFA rookie Brady Cook), the Jets have averaged just 12 points. For his part, Breece Hall is at just 5.4 half-PPR points. His usage is totally fine, with a 71% RB rush share and five targets on a 43% route participation rate. But he hasn't been capable of escaping the black hole of despair the Jets call an offense.

That's unlikely to change this week, as the Jets are underdogs by an absurd 13.5 points against the division-rival Patriots. Their implied total is an embarrassing 14.5. Just like Irving, Hall is capable of having a big day regardless. But, just like Irving, I wouldn't want to count on him with fantasy championships on the line.

Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers

If the previous two backs are just players to avoid if you have other good options, Rico is closer to being a must-bench. For one, his hold over the Panthers' backfield isn't ironclad. He saw just three more carries than Chuba Hubbard last week (nine to six), and hasn't been above a 67% rush share since Week 11.

For two, this is a very bad matchup. The Seahawks' defense is genuinely elite. They allow the fourth-fewest points per game to opposing backs, as well as by far the fewest yards per carry. The Panthers are seven-point underdogs with just a 17.5-point implied total. Dave Canales has stayed committed to the run even when playing from behind so far this season, but he won't be able to do it forever.

Of the 24 backs currently being started in the majority of ESPN leagues, Dowdle is the one I most expect to disappoint. I would easily start all three of the names in the Start section ahead of him, plus some other non-elite options.