Fantasy Football Usage Report Week 16: Colston Loveland, Emeka Egbuka and More

Here we are — Week 17 and the fantasy football championship. It may be difficult to stay locked in after a long season and in the midst of the holidays, but it's more important than ever to stay on top of the latest usage trends. 

Here are my picks for six of the most interesting players coming out of Week 16. 

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Positive Usage Players

WR Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots

I've consistently hated on Diggs' usage this season, so I have to give him credit when things move in the right direction. After posting route particpation rates of 51%, 56%, and 59% over the previous three weeks, the veteran WR led New England with a 78% participation rate on Sunday night. 

Unsurprisingly, as he has been efficient on a per-route basis all season, Diggs turned those extra routes into production. He saw 10 targets (a 23% share), catching nine for 138 yards and 18.3 half-PPR points. 

Normally, I'd be a little wary of regression after a sudden increase in usage like this. But Kayshon Boutte suffered a concussion late in Week 16, meaning he will likely be out for Week 17. His absence essentially guarantees that Diggs will remain in a larger role (he averaged 14.1 half-PPR points on an 81% route rate in the two games Boutte missed earlier this season). I had him as a drop candidate heading into last week (oops), but Diggs is suddenly a borderline must-start for Week 17. 

TE Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears

Another player I've consistently listed in the negative usage section this season has been Loveland. Despite flashing playmaking ability, the Bears' rookie TE never managed to displace Cole Kmet and become a full-time player in Chicago's offense. But there's more than one way to become a full-time player. 

With both Rome Odunze and Luther Burden sidelined for Week 16, Ben Johnson used far more two-TE sets than usual. In Weeks 1-15, just 33% of Caleb Williams' dropbacks featured two or more TEs. In Week 16, that number was 73%. As a result, Loveland posted an 81% route participation rate, his highest mark of the season (by a massive margin compared to other games with Kmet healthy). 

Loveland's other numbers weren't great. He saw just four targets for a 12% share, catching three for 30 scoreless yards. But, like Diggs, his season-long per-route numbers are impressive — he ranks eighth out of 25 TEs with at least 200 routes in yards per route. As long as Burden and Odunze remain out, he is a potential TE1 for Week 17 against the 49ers.

WR Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers

Let's complete the trio of traditionally low-route players suddenly thrust into larger roles with Reed. The 84% route participation rate Reed posted in Week 16 isn't just nearly 20% above his previous season high. It's his second game above 80% in his entire three-year career.  

Like his NFC North rival Loveland, Reed didn't actually do much with this expanded role. He saw three targets (13%), catching all three for 35 yards. But Reed is a playmaker. Fantasy managers have consistently talked themselves into starting him despite route participation rates in the 50s and 60s over the last few years.

The Packers' WR room is a rollercoaster, so this change might have been a one-week blip, but he's still a much more tempting option coming off it than he was before. 

Negative Usage Players

WR Emeka Egbuka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I don't know if we've ever really seen anything like Egbuka's rookie season before. The first-round pick in the NFL Draft started red hot, taking advantage of injuries to emerge as Tampa Bay's WR1 and a potential fantasy stud. But he trended consistently in the wrong direction for the second half of the season, struggling to produce despite still seeing excellent target numbers.

But now, with all their receivers finally healthy, the Buccaneers have chosen to move away from their inconsistent rookie. On Sunday, Egbuka ranked fifth on the team in route rate, with his 50% share ranking behind not just Mike Evans and Chris Godwin but also Jalen McMillan and Cade Otton. He saw only two targets and finished with one reception, which to be fair did go for 40 yards.

Going forward, the Buccaneers say they plan to involve Egbuka more in their offense. But we don't have time left in the fantasy season to wait and see if they actually follow through. I wouldn't start Egbuka in Week 17 unless you have no other legitimate options. 

QB Jaxson Dart, New York Giants

Normally, I don't feature many quarterbacks in this article, as usage doesn't quite work for the QB position like it does for others. After all, every starting NFL QB touches the ball on essentially 100% of their team's competitive snaps when healthy. Playcalling can definitely still have an impact on their fantasy outlooks, but the in-season swings aren't as dramatic as they are for other positions.

However, Dart may be an exception to that rule. With Brian Daboll calling plays, the rookie was a one-man offense, chucking the ball around and racking up both designed runs and scrambles. Now that Daboll has been fired, Interim HC Mike Kafka seems to be doing his best to keep the ball out of Dart's hands.

This trend peaked in Week 16, as the Giants posted a pass rate an absurd 24% below expected. That was the lowest number of any team this entire season. Dart also saw just two carries (one designed rush on a QB sneak and one scramble), by far his fewest in any start this season. 

Unsurprisingly, this lack of volume turned into a fantasy dud for Dart — he finished with one point. The Giants have a much softer matchup this week, facing the lowly Raiders in a game that may decide who receives the first-overall pick in next year's draft. But Dart is still a very risky option given the lack of opportunity, both rushing and passing, he has seen in recent weeks.  

RB Javonte Williams, Dallas Cowboys

For most of the season, Williams has had one of the most fantasy-friendly roles of any running back in the NFL. He ranks seventh at the position in snap share, ninth in route rate, seventh in total carries and 11th in total targets. The veteran has carried the whole load in the Cowboys' backfield, with Malik Davis only stepping in when he needs a rest.

However, that seems to be changing. In Week 16, Javonte saw just nine carries for a 50% RB rush share — that was his lowest mark of the season and 26% below his previous average. His 57% snap share also represented a new season-low — aside from the previous week, in which he missed time with a shoulder/neck injury. 

Perhaps that injury is why Williams' usage was down in Week 16. But he is still being listed as a limited participant in practice with a neck issue, so it's unlikely things will get better if that is indeed the issue. A good matchup with the Commanders keeps Williams as a startable option for Week 17, but he's not the smash RB1 he would've been if he got this same matchup back in the middle of the season.