Fantasy Football Week 15 Quarterback Start/Sit: Patrick Mahomes, Jaxson Dart, and More
Three quarterbacks to start and three to sit in Week 15 of the NFL season.
It's tough for a coach, manager, or fantasy owner to know how to handle the playoffs. If you use a strategy all year, such as streaming quarterbacks, and find success, then it makes it tough to switch things up at the most important time of the year.
“Riding with your stars” is a good strategy, but owners must take everything into account, including their roster, the matchups, and injury statuses as we get deep into the season. Every decision could be the one that makes or breaks your postseason run.
Let's look at three quarterbacks to start and three to sit in Week 15 of the NFL season. There won't be any obvious names below, like Josh Allen. Instead, we have six guys who are good fantasy starters some weeks but better left on the bench other times. Most stats are from NFL.com.
Use FantasySP's weekly projections to find the players expected to perform best and help make your toughest lineup decisions!
Start
Jaxson Dart, New York Giants vs. Washington Commanders
When on the field, Dart has been close to a weekly fantasy starter. He took over for New York in Week 4, and from then until Week 10, he ranked as QB1. After missing two weeks with a concussion, Dart had a middling Week 13 before the Giants' bye last week.
Dart will be drafted as a weekly starter next year, and I'm prepared to treat him as something close to that right now. He has been right around average throwing the ball but has really made a difference with his legs, where he is averaging 42.1 rushing yards with seven touchdowns in eight starts.
He has the best matchup available for a quarterback this week, as the Commanders have allowed the most yards per pass attempt and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to QBs. Last week, even the lowly J.J. McCarthy averaged 7.1 yards per attempt with three touchdowns and no interceptions, as the Vikings blew out the Commanders.
With a strong fantasy player and a phenomenal matchup, Dart has QB1 upside this week; he should be in a lineup in every league. The schedule is nice the rest of the way, with the Vikings, Raiders, and Cowboys next, so Dart might be a guy to ride through the fantasy playoffs, particularly if your league goes into Week 18.
J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings @ Dallas Cowboys
Speaking of the lowly McCarthy. He has looked far from the level of a starting quarterback, let alone Minnesota's future guy. He is averaging 6.0 yards per attempt (league average is usually around 7.0) and has been below 6.0 in four of seven games. McCarthy has also thrown nine touchdowns to 10 interceptions.
He has averaged about 20 rushing yards per game and scored twice on the ground, but that's not enough to save his fantasy performance most weeks when his throwing is so bad. McCarthy is only worth consideration as a low-level guy in the best matchups, like last week against Washington.
Well, this is another of those matchups, as the Cowboys have given up the fourth-most yards per pass attempt and the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. QBs are averaging more than 270 passing yards per game against Dallas with 29 touchdowns and five interceptions; they also find modest success on the ground, averaging 23.1 yards with six TDs in 13 games.
Every quarterback is a good fantasy streamer (or better) against the Cowboys. McCarthy has been bad, but he still has talented pass catchers around him and showed last week that he can take advantage of a porous defense, making him a good lower-level streamer.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers vs. Tennessee Titans
Purdy has only played five games, averaging 229.4 yards per game on 7.2 per attempt. Purdy's career rate is 8.7 yards per pass attempt, and he has never been below 8.1 in any previous season (and even that was as a seventh-round rookie).
It's a small sample, and the 49ers have been dealing with a ton of injuries, so Purdy has been fine in his limited time. He also faced a tough set of teams, with the Seahawks, Jaguars, Panthers, and Browns all better than average against the pass and the Cardinals near the middle.
The matchup here is about as easy as could be, as the Titans are maybe the worst team in the league and allow the third-most yards per pass attempt and the ninth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That fantasy number is only a little better because of volume: Tennessee's 401 pass attempts faced are just 13 more than the Chiefs, who have faced the sixth-fewest attempts.
Purdy is a strong fantasy play this week. The only worry is that the team could get up early and focus on the run, but Purdy is likely to put up numbers when they do throw and will probably put one or two in the end zone (if not more).
Sit
Jacoby Brissett, Arizona Cardinals @ Houston Texans
Brissett has been on fire in fantasy football to the point that I don't want to pick against him. The only reason he is here is because the Texans are THAT good (and because there isn't another great option to put in this spot).
Brissett has started eight games and averaged 307.4 passing yards on 7.1 per attempt with 15 touchdowns and five interceptions. It has been all about volume, as Brissett has averaged 43.1 pass attempts. His 17 rushing yards per game are a fine little boost also.
Houston has allowed the third-fewest yards per pass attempt and the fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Last week, they held Patrick Mahomes to 160 passing yards on just 4.8 per attempt with no touchdowns and three interceptions; that's not that much worse than the average game against the Texans.
Brissett will likely throw the ball a lot again, but it is going to be hard to find success against maybe the best defense in football. I hate to keep betting against Brissett as he keeps succeeding, but this is just too tough of a matchup to recommend playing him.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers @ Denver Broncos
Love was listed in the “Start” section last week with a great matchup against the Bears, and he took advantage, throwing for 234 yards on 9.4 per attempt with three touchdowns and an interception.
He has been efficient but at a low volume most weeks, as the Packers are tied for the sixth-most rush attempts and have thrown the ninth-fewest pass attempts, just seven more than the fifth-lowest team. He also doesn't run much, leaving Love as a player with a middling ceiling on any given week.
The matchup this week is also against him, as the Broncos have given up the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They also don't allow much rushing to the position, so there aren't any easy ways to find fantasy points.
Love is a streaming-level player who is great to have in your lineup some games (like against the Bears again next week), but this matchup is too tough to recommend him. It's best to leave Love on the bench.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
These teams played back in Week 1, a 27-21 Chargers win, and Mahomes threw for 258 yards and a touchdown but really did fantasy damage with his legs, running for 57 yards and another score. It was the first in a line of games that has Mahomes at QB2 heading into Week 15.
I mentioned his poor game against the Texans last week, and while the Chargers aren't as good as Houston, they're also not that far off. LA has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. After allowing at least 20 QB rushing yards in each of the first five games, no quarterback has reached double digits since that time.
Mahomes could put up numbers simply through sheer volume, which he has done all season; he has thrown the second-most pass attempts. It's going to be another game in which every yard will be tough to come by, though, leaving him with a lower floor.
Some owners will start him simply because of his name and how good he has been in fantasy. It's tough to bench your top guys when you get to the most important part of the season. There is major risk of a low floor without a high ceiling, though, and it's worth seeing if you have a better outlook than Mahomes'.
