Fantasy Football Usage Report Week 13: Adonai Mitchell, Harold Fannin Jr. and More
Ted examines fantasy football players who are seeing exciting or disappointing usage trends after Week 13.
The fantasy football playoffs start next week. It's more important than ever to know who you can trust … and who you can't. With that in mind, I've pored over all of Week 13's data in terms of snaps, routes, targets, carries, and more.
Here are three positive usage players and three negative usage players as we head into Week 14.
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Positive Usage Players
TE Harold Fannin Jr., Cleveland Browns
Fannin has had a couple of fake breakouts this season, so take this with a grain of salt … but his usage on Sunday was absolutely excellent. He led the Browns with a 90% route participation rate. That's not just his highest mark with David Njoku healthy, it's by far his new career-high, regardless of the veteran's health.
As he has all season, Fannin earned targets on his routes, leading the Browns with five looks for a 19% share. He caught three of those targets for 43 yards and a touchdown, posting the second-best fantasy finish of his career.
There's a chance Fannin's usage regresses again. But right now, we have the 2024 NCAA leader in receiving yards coming off a game where he had not just the best usage of his career, but a genuinely excellent workload for any tight end. I'll be ranking him as a TE1 this week, and if he repeats this usage, he will likely stay there for the rest of the season.
WR Adonai Mitchell, New York Jets
Last week, I highlighted a young wide receiver who was originally selected in the second round by an AFC South team and joined the Jets via trade … John Metchie III. If Week 13 was anything to go by, I picked the wrong one. Instead of Metchie, Mitchell exploded with a line of eight catches for 102 yards and his first career TD on a whopping 12 targets.
Since this is a usage article, I'll just put Mitchell's usage numbers since joining the Jets here, as they really speak for themselves:
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Week 11: 61% route rate, 22% target share, 53% air yards share
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Week 12: 77% route rate, 25% target share, 69% air yards share
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Week 13: 88% route rate, 36% target share, 60% air yards share
That's a steady trend upward, finishing at elite numbers last week. At this point, Mitchell appears to be a genuine starting fantasy option for all leagues, and I buy it. Even if it's a little unconventional because he was traded along the way, a second-round pick breaking out to finish his second year is actually not surprising at all.
RB Devin Neal, New Orleans Saints
In the Saints' first game without Alvin Kamara, the rookie out of Rutgers was a genuine bell-cow. Former Colt Evan Hull mixed in with five carries on 12 snaps. Taysom Hill was an afterthought, with just one carry and all four of his snaps in the backfield coming as a fullback (per PFF).
Neal, meanwhile, recorded 14 carries and three targets. He played 81% of the Saints' offensive snaps and posted a healthy 69% route participation rate. His efficiency wasn't great, so he finished with just 8.4 half-PPR points. But that should genuinely be closer to his floor than his ceiling with this usage on a fast-paced offense.
He is a viable play as long as Kamara remains sidelined.
Negative Usage Players
RB Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers
It's been a rollercoaster of a season for Dowdle. He started the year as the clear backup to Chuba Hubbard. Then, when Hubbard was sidelined by a calf injury, he exploded with two of the best games of any RB this season. Dowdle was then briefly relegated back to being Hubbard's backup upon the latter's return from injury, but he continued to outperform his teammate and eventually earned a valuable role as the Panthers' bell cow.
Now, the pendulum seems to be swinging back the other way. On Sunday, Dowdle played just 27 snaps to Chuba's 38. Hubbard also easily led in routes, 13-5. Dowdle did still lead the team in carries, but his 51% RB rush share was by far his lowest since Week 9, when he first became the team's RB1.
On the bright side, that 51% rush share was still good for 18 carries, while Hubbard had 17. The Panthers have the highest rush rate over expected in the entire NFL, so there may be enough work for both backs to be viable at the same time. But Dowdle has fallen from being a legit workhorse to the 1A (or maybe even the 1B) in a committee — that undeniably hurts his value.
WR Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos
Franklin's situation is similar to Dowdle's. Recently, the second-year WR appeared to have ascended, taking over as the Broncos' WR1 and a legit fantasy stud. But in Week 13, his usage took a huge step back. Franklin saw just three targets for a 7% target share and an 8% air yards share in Denver's overtime win over the Commanders. His 69% route participation rate trailed not just Courtland Sutton but also Pat Bryant.
To give some perspective on how big of a step back this was for Franklin, he averaged a 24% target share and a 49% air yards share on a 79% route participation rate over his previous five games. Given Sean Payton's history, there's a chance Franklin's usage bounces back in Week 14 and beyond. But there's also a chance he is simply back to being another interchangeable cog in this Denver passing offense, making him an unreliable fantasy option.
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
At this point, the formula is clear. When Samaje Perine is unavailable, Brown is an old-fashioned workhorse with arguably the best usage of any back in the league. When Perine is healthy, he's more of a standard RB1.
In Weeks 9-12, with Perine out, Brown handled 87% of the Bengals' RB carries. He also played 90% of the team's offensive snaps and saw a 20% target share on a 70% route participation rate. Those numbers are all truly elite.
Perine was back in Week 13, and Brown saw just a 52% rush share (15 carries to Perine's 14) on a 59% snap share. On the bright side, he did still see seven targets for a 15% share on a 52% route participation rate — that's not as pristine as his usage over the last month, but still solid and better than he saw prior to Perine's injury.
Going forward, Brown is by no means dead as a fantasy starter. His workload is still nothing to sneeze at, and the return of Joe Burrow elevates this entire offense. But this usage shift definitely lowers his floor and his ceiling as long as Perine remains active.