Finding the Top Week 14 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Adonai Mitchell, Blake Corum and More

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

Don't look now, but we have a genuinely exciting player available in over 95% of leagues at the top of the list. Even after Adonai Mitchell, there are some intriguing options in the waiver wire streets as we head into Week 14 and the regular-season finale for most fantasy football leagues. Let's get right into them.

Check out fantasy football waiver wire targets all season on FantasySP. 

WR Adonai Mitchell, New York Jets (51% EWI)

This seems just about fair enough. Mitchell is an explosive young player who was a second-round pick just a year ago and now has all the opportunity he could ask for in his new home in New York.

Coming off a huge game, he is definitely worth adding in most formats. 

RB Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams (36% EWI)

If Kyren Williams didn't return from his ankle injury, Corum would likely be leading the way with a massive EWI number. Even still, Williams' brief departure (and his own impressive performance in the meantime) has Corum second on this list. 

While Corum is worth adding, I'm not sure I'd fight for him at this price. Consider targeting a different clear handcuff like Tyler Allgeier, Ollie Gordon, or Malik Davis — those guys are essentially just as valuable but won't be as tough to land because their respective lead backs didn't have injury scares in Week 13. 

WR Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31% EWI)

I'm a huge Evans fan, but I'm not particularly optimistic about his ability to be a game-changer for fantasy this season after being out since Week 7 with a fractured clavicle. He's trending up thanks to some positive buzz on his health, but all that actually happened was that Bucs head coach Todd Bowles said “That's a possibility” when asked if Evans would return to practice.

Even if he returns to practice, Evans is unlikely to play in Week 14. That means his return to the field will come, at the earliest, in Week 15 … the first week of the fantasy playoffs. He's likely to be eased in for a week or two, at which point the fantasy season is already over.

In leagues shallow enough that Evans was ever dropped, the slim chance that he is startable in time for it to matter isn't worth adding him right now. 

RB Bam Knight, Arizona Cardinals (25% EWI)

I've been saying for weeks that Knight deserves more respect from fantasy mangers as the Cardinals' de facto RB1, so hopefully this is a sign that I won't have to list him again in next week's RB waiver column.

Especially with Trey Benson trending in the wrong direction with two DNPs in Arizona's final two practices of Week 13, Knight is a solid add if you need RB help. 

RB Chris Rodriguez Jr., Washington Commanders (25% EWI)

Rodriguez Jr. is very similar to Knight. He's not a game-changer or a league-winner, but he's a running back leading his team and seeing decent volume.

Depending on your format, that could make him quietly very valuable. He's definitely a worthwhile pickup who deserves this decent EWI (if not more). 

QB C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (20% EWI)

Okay, this one I just don't get. Stroud has been bad for fantasy for nearly two full years at this point.

He returned to the field on Sunday after missing three weeks with an injury and promptly dropped a 10-point stinker. He's not at all worth adding in 1-QB leagues. 

WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (20% EWI)

Like I'm worried about with his teammate Evans, Godwin is being eased back into action in his return from injury. He posted just a 38% route participation rate in his return in Week 12, and that number grew to just 61% on Sunday.

Still, even in that part-time role, Godwin saw five targets (an 18% share), catching three for 78 yards. He's worth adding under the assumption that his usage will hit a usable level by the time we reach the fantasy playoffs. 

TE Darren Waller, Miami Dolphins (20% EWI)

Another player returning from injury, it's hard to tell if Waller was being eased in or not. On the one hand, his 66% route participation rate was his second-highest mark of the season … but the 33-year-old has arguably only had one fully healthy game all year. 

Still, he immediately made a bit of an impact with two catches on three targets for 47 yards. He has averaged 11.6 half-PPR points in four games with at least a 37% route participation rate. If you're looking for TE upside, the veteran is worth adding. 

WR Devaughn Vele, New Orleans Saints (20% EWI)

Honestly, this number is a bit too high for Vele. While he did make my WR waiver article this week, I made sure to specify that the former Bronco is only worth adding in truly deep leagues.

This Saints' offense is unlikely to support two fantasy-viable WRs, and it's not even 100% clear that Vele has won the team's WR2 job above Mason Tipton. Outside of super-deep formats, let someone else chase his big Week 13 outing. 

TE Isaiah Likely, Baltimore Ravens (20% EWI)

We've got back-to-back players to pass on here. Likely did score 10 points on Thanksgiving, but that was just his second game above even three half-PPR points all season. His role in the Ravens' offense is simply too small for fantasy reliability.

Even with another juicy matchup against the Bengals' defense (which seems incapable of stopping TEs) coming up, he's not worth adding.

RB Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings (20% EWI)

Mason is similar to Corum in that he is a handcuff whose starting RB (Aaron Jones Sr.) suffered a relatively minor injury on Sunday. Jones is reportedly day-to-day with a shoulder issue, but he (unlike Williams) did not return in Week 13. With that in mind, Mason is actually my preferred of these two handcuffs to target. 

However, don't be fooled by this low EWI and think Mason is flying under the radar. He is already 73% rostered, so this 20% mark will get him up close to the maximum 99% roster rate. If he's available and you want him, you'll have to spend up … which might not be worth it with how bad the Vikings' offense has been recently.

WR Luther Burden III, Chicago Bears (20% EWI)

Since finally overtaking Olamide Zaccheaus to be the Bears' WR3 a few weeks ago, Burden's role in Chicago's offense has stagnated. In Week 13, he actually posted his lowest route participation rate since Week 10, down at 48%.

Until that number starts trending up, not down, I'm not adding him outside of super deep leagues — we're too close to the fantasy playoffs to be stashing players who have upside but no real roles.  

QB Tyrod Taylor, New York Jets (20% EWI)

Tyrod had a productive Week 13, throwing for 172 yards and a TD while adding 44 yards and another score with his legs. He finished with 21.3 points, a very solid outing. The veteran journeyman now has two top-eight finishes in three completed starts, to go with a respectable 18.3-point average.

It's hard to trust anyone on this Jets offense, but if you're looking for QB help, Taylor is worth considering.