Fantasy Football Week 13 Quarterback Who Should I Start? Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones, C.J. Stroud, and More
Comparing Baker Mayfield to four quarterbacks who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
Baker Mayfield is a popular name on FantasySP's start/sit tool many weeks. He fits in the space just below the weekly fantasy starters but still good enough to consider every week, so it makes sense that owners are often questioning where he stands.
Let's look at Mayfield and four quarterbacks that he has been matched up with often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Arizona Cardinals
Mayfield is averaging 218.7 passing yards per game on 6.7 per attempt. The only time in his career that he has been under 7.1 per attempt was in 2022, when he bounced between the Panthers and Rams after being dumped by Cleveland. There's a connection between Mayfield being closer to middling and Tampa Bay sitting right near .500 in the worst division in football.
He still has 18 passing touchdowns to just five interceptions and 216 rushing yards with another score, all coming together to put Mayfield at QB12 entering Week 13. He finished in the top 10 in each of the past two seasons, so Mayfield is right in that same range, but he hasn't been quite as good as his previous time with Tampa Bay.
Arizona sits right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, and they have given up the ninth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. This season has gone off the rails thanks to injuries and an offense that isn't up to par, but the defense is a talented unit that has found success against the pass.
Mayfield suffered a shoulder injury last week but is expected to play here. There's risk that he's either not full strength or could aggravate the injury, dropping his fantasy value a bit. He doesn't have a terrible outlook, but there's also enough going against Mayfield that it is reasonable to consider your options before throwing him into your lineup.
Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks vs. Minnesota Vikings
Darnold is having his best season, even eclipsing last year with Minnesota. He is on pace to see a small drop in yards and touchdowns, but Darnold is averaging a league-leading 9.4 yards per pass attempt, a phenomenal number. Going back through 2020, Brock Purdy in 2023 is the only player with at least 100 pass attempts to have a better per-attempt number than Darnold's current mark.
He gets a chance to go against his old compadres here, and I'm sure Vikings fans are dreading seeing their old passer given his plaudits so far. Minnesota is allowing the ninth-most yards per pass attempt but the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to QBs.
That better fantasy performance is from a lack of volume, as teams are averaging just 202.5 passing yards per game but have 14 touchdowns to five interceptions. Quarterbacks don't run much against the Vikings, but that shouldn't affect Darnold, who doesn't use his legs often.
Advice: Start Sam Darnold over Baker Mayfield. The latter's running ability gives him a bonus, but Darnold has the better matchup here, and he has just been so good most of the season.
Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
Jones is another guy who is dealing with an injury, as he has a small fracture in his left fibula but plans to play through it. Like with Mayfield, there is extra risk that he could aggravate that injury and need to leave the game, and even if not, he might be limited in his mobility.
The matchup here is also absolutely brutal, as the Texans have given up the fewest yards per pass attempt and the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. I don't want to use any fantasy players against Houston if I can help it, and that includes some weekly starters.
Advice: Start Baker Mayfield over Daniel Jones. Jones has been very good, but there is a lot going against him here, and with the matchup so negative, I can't recommend starting him.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Lawrence is having his worst individual season since his rookie year, when he averaged just 6.0 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. He is at 6.5 this season with 14 TDs and 11 INTs, not as bad but still below average. The Jags are winning games in spite of Lawrence rather than because of him at times (though it's not like he's a complete anchor).
The matchup in this one is in his favor, as the Titans have allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt. They are in the middle in fantasy points allowed to QBs, but that has to do with volume more than efficiency, as teams simply don't have to throw much while they are beating up the 1-10 Titans.
Advice: Start Baker Mayfield over Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence has the better matchup, but he just hasn't looked good most of this season, and he's a low-level fantasy player. This could be another game where the Jags do more running against the Titans, leaving Lawrence with a lower ceiling.
C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts
Stroud returns here after missing three-plus games with a concussion. Houston won all three that he missed, moving them to 6-5 and within striking distance of the Colts at the top of the division; a win here would bring them within one game of Indianapolis while holding the tiebreaker.
Stroud has been fine when on the field, averaging 231.9 passing yards in his seven full games with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions. He is averaging 7.0 yards per pass attempt, which is right in the middle, and Stroud is even adding 25 rushing yards per game. He has been an OK fantasy player, ranking as QB14 from Weeks 1 through 8 (the time he was healthy).
The Colts have positive numbers against the pass, ranking just a little better than average both in yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to quarterbacks. A few better passing games have found bigger success, like the Rams, Chargers, and Chiefs all going over 350 passing yards, but Indy has been much better against lesser passing teams, which is where Houston fits better.
Advice: Start Baker Mayfield over C.J. Stroud. This is a bit of a tough one, but Mayfield is generally a better fantasy player than Stroud, and when both players have similar matchups, I prefer the Tampa Bay QB.
