Fantasy Football Week 11 Quarterback Who Should I Start?: J.J. McCarthy, Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers, and More
Comparing J.J. McCarthy to four quarterbacks who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
After missing his entire rookie season with an injury, it was tough to know what to expect from Minnesota quarterback J.J. McCarthy. The team let Sam Darnold walk away to give the job to McCarthy, and while Darnold has starred in Seattle, McCarthy has been uneven.
With a fantastic matchup in Week 11, McCarthy is a hot topic on the fantasy radar, as owners try to determine his upside and analyze the risk associated with a guy who doesn't put up big stats. As a result, McCarthy has been showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool.
Let's look at McCarthy and four quarterbacks who he has been compared to often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears
I've talked about McCarthy several times this week because of just how vulnerable the Bears are. They have given up the third-most yards per pass attempt and the third-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks, regularly getting beaten in the passing game.
McCarthy's stats are modest (173 passing yards per game on 6.4 per attempt), but he does run the ball a bit, averaging 27.5 yards per game on the ground and scoring two touchdowns. It all makes him a guy worth considering in the best matchups, like this one.
These teams played in Week 1, and McCarthy had just 143 passing yards, though his two touchdown passes, 25 rushing yards, and rushing touchdown helped him to a QB11 finish. He has a bit of a lower floor, but McCarthy also gets help from his head coach and playmakers, and the matchup sets him up for a possible big day here.
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Mahomes is back to being a big-time fantasy player, ranking as QB2 heading into Week 11 while showing prowess both throwing and running the ball. His rushing has cooled down over the past month or so, coinciding with Rashee Rice's return, and it's fair to say that the most likely result moving forward is Mahomes running a little less.
The matchup here is the real problem, as Denver has allowed the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the second-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Denver is on a multi-year run of defensive dominance, something that makes me skeptical of using any fantasy player against them.
Advice: How bold do you feel? Going simply by matchups and on-paper outlooks, McCarthy seems like the better option, or at least close enough for a 50/50 split. I have a tough time actually recommending the younger player, even though I'm intrigued. This is a much closer choice than you might think, but I'll give the slightest advantage to Mahomes.
Bo Nix, Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The next three players are lower-level guys compared to Mahomes, so the matchups will mean more than the individual superstar we are arguing against. Nix is a better fantasy player than real-life player, something that was true last year as well. He ranks as QB6, though he hasn't had his bye yet, which is a factor.
Nix does his best work with his legs, averaging over 20 rushing yards per game and scoring three times. He is throwing for 212.6 yards per game at just 6.1 per attempt, but his 18 touchdowns (versus eight interceptions) also help his fantasy performance.
The Chiefs are right in the middle in both yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to quarterbacks, ranking a little better than average in the latter. Kansas City has a good-but-not-great defense, a step down from their dominant performance the last few years.
Advice: This isn't a good matchup but also not a terrible one. Nix is a better fantasy player than McCarthy, so with the latter having a much better matchup, it makes a tough decision. Since Nix isn't on the level of Mahomes, he doesn't quite overcome the opponent, so I'll give a slight advantage to McCarthy.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Purdy is returning after missing the last six games and eight of the past nine. San Francisco stayed afloat in his absence, sitting at 6-4 and in position to make a run at the playoffs and maybe even division.
Mac Jones also put up numbers in his absence, averaging nearly 270 passing yards per game with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. This will only stoke the fires of those who said the 49ers could find a cheaper QB while moving on from Purdy, but the starter now has the chance to prove that he's still the guy (not that there's any quarterback controversy).
The Cardinals present a tougher matchup, having allowed the ninth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have given up fewer than 215 passing yards in four of nine games, and only two teams have thrown for multiple touchdowns.
Advice: Start J.J. McCarthy over Brock Purdy. Purdy has a higher ceiling, but he also has a much tougher matchup, and in his first game back, it might be best to temper expectations just a bit.
Aaron Rodgers, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The intrigue here is all about the matchup. Rodgers has been fine, averaging 205.9 yards per game with 18 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He doesn't run the ball, limiting his fantasy impact, and that leaves Rodgers close to QB20.
Cincinnati is one of the worst pass defenses in the league, allowing the fifth-most yards per pass attempt and fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Passers are averaging 266.6 yards per game with 20 touchdowns and eight interceptions, and though they haven't allowed rushing production to QBs, that won't affect Rodgers.
Advice: This is a tough one because both players are lower-level fantasy guys but have great matchups. I'm going to give the advantage to McCarthy both because he has better pass catchers and because of his running ability.