Fantasy Football Week 10 Low-Ranked Starters: Matthew Stafford, Jameson Williams, and More

Last week's attempt to pick out players ranked outside the fantasy starters at their position who would break into that range was a good effort, seeing a 75% success rate on the picks:

• Sam Darnold threw for 330 yards on 13.8 per attempt with four touchdowns and one interception. He finished as QB5.
• Kareem Hunt led the backfield for the Chiefs with Isiah Pacheco out, and while he got just 12 touches, he gained 55 yards and scored a touchdown. That was enough to put him inside the top 16 RBs in both standard and PPR.
• Jameson Williams caught four passes for 66 yards and a touchdown. This came after Detroit's offensive coordinator made public statements about wanting to get the receiver the football. He finished as a fantasy starter in both formats.
• Kyle Pitts Sr. caught four passes for 38 yards, a very modest day that kept him outside the top 20 tight ends.

That's a strong set of picks! Let's do it again and look at one player ranked outside the starters at each offensive position who will break into that top group in Week 10. We are using the FantasySP projections to determine rankings; “starters” will be the top 10 quarterbacks and tight ends and the top 20 running backs and wide receivers.

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Quarterback

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers

Stafford is having a strong season, ranking as fantasy QB9 while averaging nearly 270 passing yards per game with 21 touchdowns and two interceptions. He doesn't add anything with his legs, but Stafford is throwing the ball as well as anyone else this season.

His outlook is likely hindered a little in projections because San Francisco has the numbers of a good defense. They are a little better than average in terms of both yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to quarterbacks; the 49ers are also decimated by injuries.

Nick Bosa, Fred Warner, Mykel Williams, Bryce Huff, Dee Winters; these are just a few of the names who have been out and are either out or questionable for Week 10. Both their top-line talent and depth have been affected, leaving this defense vulnerable.

With a good running and passing game, the Rams are in position to take advantage of this defense. When they played in Week 5, Stafford threw for 389 yards on 8.3 per attempt with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He was QB8 that week; there's a good chance for another top-10 performance.

Running Back

TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The matchup here isn't as great as it is for most of the players who end up on this list. It's fine, as the Bucs have allowed the 12th-most fantasy points per week to running backs, but Tampa has also given up the seventh-fewest yards per rush attempt.

Their more favorable fantasy outlook comes from allowing receiving work to running backs, as the position is averaging 5.3 catches and 58.3 receiving yards per game against the Bucs. Seven touchdowns (six on the ground) also help the fantasy score.

Henderson's best impact might be as a pass catcher, matching up well here. He has caught 20 passes for 131 yards, and while that's not great, Henderson has been a little stunted as a rookie while he gets better and splits time with a veteran in Rhamondre Stevenson.

Stevenson is likely going to miss this game, his second in a row, setting up Henderson to lead the backfield. Last week, Henderson carried the ball 14 times for 55 yards and caught four passes for 32 yards. Terrell Jennings split the work, taking 11 carries and catching a pass, and he stole a touchdown away from Henderson.

Henderson is in line to be the top guy, though, and with Tampa Bay struggling to stop the running back pass, he has upside. Jennings will steal work, but I like Henderson's chances of finding the top 20 better between the two players.

Wide Receiver

Jameson Williams, Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders

It worked once, so why not go back to the well? I usually don't make a habit of repeating players, but Williams has a fantastic matchup here, and the OC talking about getting him involved is likely to continue more than just one week.

The Commanders have given up the most yards per pass attempt and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. The biggest fantasy benefit is that Washington lets players into the end zone, allowing 11 wide receiver touchdowns to go with nearly 200 yards per game.

Williams is a big-play receiver, generally touching the ball less but with a greater chance to break free. If the team is ensuring that Williams touches the ball, that gives him more specific chances to hit one of those explosive plays; one is all it takes for a good fantasy day.

Williams should be considered with the matchup, and the matchup couldn't be much better here. There's a good chance for Williams to hit a big play or two and maybe get into the end zone.

Tight End

Theo Johnson, New York Giants @ Chicago Bears

Johnson has found fantasy relevance since Jaxson Dart took over at quarterback because the tight end keeps scoring touchdowns. He has caught five TDs on 26 receptions, an unsustainable rate. Last season, Johnson only scored once on 29 catches.

When he doesn't score, Johnson is going to be a lesser fantasy player; his three receptions and 27 yards per game aren't exciting. Johnson should only be trusted in fantasy in the best matchups.

This might be one of those matchups, as the Bears have allowed the third-most yards per pass attempt and the 11th-most fantasy points per game to tight ends. The position is averaging 6.5 catches and nearly 60 yards per game, though they have scored just four touchdowns in eight games.

With Chicago struggling against the passing game in general, the Giants are likely to be able to throw it around a little. With a lack of impact receivers, the tight end Johnson will be involved with a chance to do damage. He's an intriguing mid-level streamer this week.