Fantasy Football Week 8 Running Back Who Should I Start? Rico Dowdle, Quinshon Judkins, and More
Comparing Rico Dowdle to five running backs who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
Rico Dowdle is one of the early-season success stories of both real and fantasy football, as he burst onto the scene with back-to-back 200-total-yard games in relief of the injured Chuba Hubbard.
Even with Hubbard back last week, Dowdle narrowly led the touch distribution (17 carries to 14), and he was much more efficient, gaining 79 yards to just 31 for Hubbard. That has Dowdle looking like the lead man in Carolina, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see him take an even bigger share moving forward.
Fantasy owners are understandably curious about Dowdle's standing, so he has been showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool. Is Dowdle moving into weekly starter status?
Let's look at Dowdle and five running backs who he has been matched up with often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Rico Dowdle, Carolina Panthers vs. Buffalo Bills
Hubbard's presence is the biggest factor standing in Dowdle's way of being a true fantasy weekly starter. Carolina extended the veteran last season, and Dowdle is just on a one-year contract, so they could still focus things Hubbard's way.
It's impossible to ignore what Dowdle has done, though, and there's not really any good argument for leaving him on the bench. Hubbard as never been anything more than average, so it's not worth holding down a high-upside player on a team seriously lacking talent.
It might not seem like Buffalo is a team to target, but they have allowed the most yards per rush attempt and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. The Bills have been beaten regularly by backs since Week 1, and it hasn't stopped, with 116 yards per game and eight touchdowns on the ground.
Buffalo hasn't given up much for receiving yards, but Dowdle is going to do his damage on the ground. With his prowess over the past few weeks and the Bills' ineptitude against the run, it's setting up for Dowdle to have a big day.
Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals vs. New York Jets
It has been a disappointing year for Brown, who was seen as a sneaky player with top-10 fantasy upside at his position. He was already struggling when the team was full strength, and it has been just as bad since Joe Burrow went down. Brown had his first good game of the season last week, running for 108 yards on 11 carries.
The Jets are just a little better than average in both yards per rush attempt allowed and fantasy points given up to running backs. They are right in the middle in a lot of ways, allowing more than 100 rushing yards in four of seven games and six total touchdowns.
Advice: Start Rico Dowdle over Chase Brown. Brown has been disappointing all season, and Dowdle has the better matchup this week.
Chuba Hubbard, Carolina Panthers vs. Buffalo Bills
Hubbard has a little flex value because of the great matchup, but I see him far below Dowdle right now. I'm sticking with the hot hand and believing that he could get even a little more work this week.
Advice: Start Rico Dowdle over Chuba Hubbard.
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns @ New England Patriots
Judkins has come on as something of a star himself as a rookie, averaging 88.2 total yards per game with five touchdowns in six contests. Big things were expected of Judkins after being an early-second-round pick, and even after not signing with the team until right before the season, he has excelled.
This is one of the toughest running back matchups, though, as the Patriots have allowed the third-fewest yards per rush attempt and the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs. They have been beaten in the passing game, but Judkins doesn't catch the ball often, ceding that work to other players.
Advice: Start Rico Dowdle over Quinshon Judkins. Many owners won't bench Judkins after he's been so good, but this is a brutal matchup and points toward a quiet week.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kendre Miller had been stealing work from Kamara, but he suffered a torn ACL and is out for the season. Kamara is likely to handle the majority of the running back work now without any notable players behind him, and he will do plenty both running and catching the ball.
Tampa Bay has allowed the ninth-fewest yards per rush attempt but the seventh-most fantasy points per game to running backs. That much worse fantasy performance comes from allowing one total touchdown per game and 61.6 receiving yards per game to RBs, but the Bucs have been better against the running game.
Advice: This is a tough one. With Tampa allowing so much in the passing game, it sets up well for Kamara to do big work there, making him the better PPR player. I'll say to start Alvin Kamara over Rico Dowdle because Kamara probably won't be sharing work, but it's close.
Woody Marks, Houston Texans vs. San Francisco 49ers
Marks seemed like he might take over more work in the Houston backfield, but Nick Chubb has remained the top guy. Marks only has double-digit touches in two games, and one of them was a 26-0 win over the Titans. He has been well below average from an efficiency standpoint, and I'm not excited about counting on Marks in any format.
The 49ers had allowed the 11th-fewest yards per rush attempt while sitting right in the middle in fantasy points given up to running backs. San Fran has lost multiple superstars in Nick Bosa and Fred Warner to injury (along with others), but they have continued playing successful ball, holding the Falcons to 10 points last week in their first game without both Bosa and Warner.
Advice: Start Rico Dowdle over Woody Marks.
