Finding the Top Week 4 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Tre Tucker, Trey Benson and More

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

This is the first week that has featured a truly massive mistake (in my opinion) in the EWI rankings. Spoiler alert, but I simply don't think Tre Tucker is deserving of a massive 74% EWI, by far the highest of the week and the highest of the season thus far. 

After Tucker, there are actually a couple of other players who are being overvalued according to EWI. Thankfully, there are also some exciting undervalued “sleeper” pickups we can pivot to instead. Let's break them all down.

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WR Tre Tucker, Las Vegas Raiders (74% EWI)

As mentioned in the intro, this 74% EWI is far too high for Tucker. Obviously, his 36.9 half-PPR-point explosion in Week 3 doesn't mean nothing. Combined with a solid Week 1 outing, he is now the WR4 overall or the entire season. However, this huge outing is not really a signal of something new to come. 

Tucker's role in the Raiders' offense, as the third target behind Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers, is very unlikely to change. The arrival of Geno Smith does make that role more valuable than it has been in years past, giving him boom-or-bust deep-league flex value. But he's very unlikely to be more than that. If this EWI is any indication, don't bother chasing Tucker on waivers this week — he will be going for more FAAB and higher priority pickups than he is worth. 

RB Trey Benson, Arizona Cardinals (30% EWI)

At first glance, Benson's 30% EWI seems far too low. But he is already rostered in 78% of the leagues the Fantasy Assistant is taking into account. Do the math, and he will be rostered in well over 100% of leagues (108%, to be exact) after waivers run tomorrow morning.

Obviously, that's not possible, but it is an accurate representation of how Benson should be treated on waivers this week. With James Conner officially done for the season, Benson will be Arizona's starting RB the rest of the way. He could theoretically provide RB2 value, making him worth his weight in gold on the waiver wire.

WR Tory Horton, Seattle Seahawks (27% EWI)

Although it's not as egregious as with Tucker, Horton is another player being slightly overvalued in EWI this week. Yes, he finished with an impressive 16.7 half-PPR points. But most of those points came from touchdowns, one of which wasn't even an offensive play (to be clear, it was a sick punt-return TD — awesome, but not sustainable). 

On the day, Horton had just four targets, catching three for 32 yards. His role wasn't any different from Weeks 1 or 2: He posted a 62% route participation rate, behind both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. 

In deeper leagues, Horton is worth stashing as a clearly explosive rookie who is only blocked from fantasy relevance by a 32-year-old Kupp. But in most formats, Horton's role is still too small for him to be worth rostering.  

RB Woody Marks, Houston Texans (27% EWI)

When I mentioned in the intro that there were some sleeper players this week, Marks is exactly who I was talking about. He has flown under the radar, perhaps because the Texans' offense is truly putrid, but the fourth-round rookie is quietly climbing Houston's depth chart every single week. 

In Week 3, Marks played just one fewer snap than Nick Chubb. He handled six carries to the veteran's nine, and saw two targets on a 37% route participation rate.

Marks wasn't a super-exciting prospect, and he hasn't exactly lit the world on fire so far in the NFL (he ranks 55th out of 59 qualified RBs in PFF Rushing Grade). But he at least theoretically provides far more juice than Chubb, especially in the receiving game. With the rate at which his role has already grown, he is a must-add in all formats.

WR Tyquan Thornton, Kansas City Chiefs (24% EWI)

Honestly, I would argue that Thornton is a better pickup than Tucker, despite having a 50% lower EWI. Like Tucker, Thornton is a boom-or-bust flex option whose value will mostly rely on big plays. And unlike Tucker, he (at least for now) is arguably competing to be his team's top target. 

In Week 3, the former Patriot led Kansas City with nine targets (a 24% share). He also tied for the team lead with a 73% route participation rate. When Xavier Worthy and/or Marquise Brown return, those numbers will almost certainly fall. But for right now, Thornton is a valid flex play, seeing normal receiver work to go with a couple of deep shots per game. His 53.6% air yards share in Kansas City's offense is behind only Smith-Njigba, Malik Nabers, and Tyreek Hill.

RB Chris Rodriguez, Washington Commanders (23% EWI)

After being a healthy scratch in Weeks 1 and 2, Rodriguez joined the Commanders' active roster in Week 3 with Austin Ekeler done for the year. He immediately led the team in carries, handling 11 to eight for Jacory Croskey-Merritt and four for Jeremy McNichols.

Normally, any RB leading their team in carries who is as widely available as Rodriguez (only 5% rostered) would have a much higher EWI. But this number actually seems about right. Rodriguez brings no pass-catching value, and it's more likely that his role will expand than shrink going forward. He has some value as a desperation RB play, but not much more than that.

WR KaVontae Turpin, Dallas Cowboys (23% EWI)

It hurts me to say this as a long-time fan of Turpin, but he doesn't deserve this EWI. Yes, he will benefit from CeeDee Lamb's absence over the next few weeks with an ankle injury. But it was Jalen Tolbert who served as the Cowboys' WR2 alongside George Pickens on Sunday, not Turpin.

Turpin's playmaking ability means he isn't useless, especially if his role expands with Lamb out. But it's almost impossible to provide consistent fantasy value on a gadget role, and that seems to be where the Cowboys plan on using him. I'd love to be proven wrong, but I think it's safe to let your leaguemates snag the former USL MVP off waivers this week. 

WR Elic Ayomanor, Tennessee Titans (22% EWI)

I've been recommending Ayomanor as a stash since after Week 1, so I am definitely on board with him here. This level of EWI will bring his roster percentage to 66%, which is about right. He's a good stash in deeper formats, but probably not worth the roster spot in shallow leagues.

On the bright side, Ayomanor is a rookie who is already flashing talent and scoring TDs. Alongside a rookie QB in Cameron Ward and only behind Calvin Ridley on the Titans depth chart, he could easily emerge as a fantasy stud down the stretch.

But for right now, he's still clearly behind Ridley, and Ward's rookie struggles mean this Tennessee offense is a long way from supporting two fantasy WRs. That's why he's just a stash, and this relatively low EWI seems perfectly reasonable.