Fantasy Football Week 2 RB Start/Sit Decisions: TreVeyon Henderson, Jaylen Warren, and More
Comparing TreVeyon Henderson to three running backs who have been matched up against him often on the FantasySP Who Should I Start? tool.
It seems like only a matter of time before TreVeyon Henderson takes over the backfield duties for the New England Patriots. Henderson was drafted 38th overall and only Rhamondre Stevenson is in front of him on the depth chart. While Stevenson has been fine, he's a middling back without a great ceiling.
Henderson represents hope of bigger things, and fans and fantasy owners alike will be clamoring to see more of him. Henderson has been showing up often on our FantasySP start/sit tool in the lead up to Sunday's games, showing that fantasy owners are torn on putting him in their lineups.
Let's look at Henderson and three backs who have been compared to him most on the start/sit tool: Aaron Jones Sr., Tyrone Tracy, and Jaylen Warren.
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TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Henderson had five carries for 27 yards in Week 1 while Stevenson had seven attempts of just 15 yards. The rookie was also more involved in the passing game, hauling in six receptions for 24 yards (versus two for 12 for Stevenson). That lead in the passing work is likely an every-week thing, so Henderson has more value in PPR leagues.
He looks a little more explosive running the ball also, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see things shift Henderson's way eventually. Stevenson has averaged a very pedestrian 4.3 yards per carry in his career with just two of four seasons over 4.0. Henderson's shiftiness and home run ability make him a more desirable back, especially when he catches the ball so well.
The Dolphins just struggled hard against Indianapolis in Week 1, making them look like a good matchup for everyone. Indy's running game was fine if unspectacular, with Jonathan Taylor turning 18 carries into 71 yards and DJ Giddens taking 12 for 41 yards in relief in a blowout.
Taylor also caught three passes for 27 yards, possibly pointing to good things for Henderson. While I don't like that he's splitting carries, Henderson is an intriguing fantasy player and could start getting a larger share of the load as soon as this week.
Aaron Jones Sr., Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons
Jones is on the opposite side of Henderson, seeing a younger back outperform him in Week 1 and throwing his status into uncertainty. While Jones labored to turn eight carries into 23 yards, Jordan Mason looked faster, stronger, and more explosive, gaining 68 yards on his 15 attempts. Jones will continue leading the passing game out of the backfield, and he had three catches for 44 yards and a touchdown in the first game.
That all took place against a vulnerable defense in Chicago. Minnesota faces the Falcons this week, who were right in the middle as a run defense last year. Atlanta was good against Tampa Bay's running game in Week 1, holding Bucky Irving to just 37 yards on 14 carries and all Buccaneer running backs to 3.1 yards per attempt.
I'm treating this as a middling matchup, not great but also not especially difficult. I am more worried about Mason's presence than anything else for Jones; Mason should lead the way again if Week 1 was any indication, leaving fewer chances for Jones.
Advice: Start TreVeyon Henderson over Aaron Jones Sr.
Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys
There were thoughts that Tracy could end up splitting time in the backfield as well, but he led the way in Week 1, taking 10 rushing attempts for the Giants while all other backs combined for five carries. Everyone was inefficient, gaining just 30 total yards on those 15 carries.
That was against a Washington defense that allowed the fifth-most yards per rush attempt last season. It wouldn't seem to get easier, but Dallas actually allowed the third-most yards per attempt, making for another light matchup on paper. In Week 1 the Cowboys did OK against the run, holding Saquon Barkley to 60 yards on 18 attempts; all Philadelphia backs averaged 4.0 yards per attempt.
Trading Micah Parsons for Kenny Clark theoretically makes the Dallas run D better even though it makes their team worse. I'm still not excited about the Cowboys defensively and see them as an OK matchup, probably falling in the middle.
Advice: This is very 50/50. Henderson seems to have the better ceiling while Tracy has a better floor, so it depends if you want the safer play or more potential. I will say start Tracy over Henderson, but it's a slight margin.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Seattle Seahawks
One more guy whose status in the backfield is in question next to other RBs, Warren has both Kenneth Gainwell and rookie Kaleb Johnson to contend with. In Week 1, Warren led the way with 11 carries for 37 yards while Gainwell took seven for 19 yards. Johnson only carried the ball once for negative-two yards and fumbled, so we might not see as much of him for a while.
Warren is thought of as a pass-catching back, and he had two receptions for 22 yards in the first game while scoring a touchdown; Gainwell had three of his own catches, though they gained just four yards. If this is a true timeshare the way it seemed in Week 1, that drops the value of everyone involved. Until we see differently, that's how I have to assume the touches will be distributed.
Seattle was just a little worse than average against the run last season, right near the middle. They had some success against the 49ers in Week 1, allowing 102 yards to Christian McCaffrey and Brian Robinson but only on 3.3 yards per attempt. McCaffrey also caught nine passes for 73 yards; he always catches a lot of passes, but if that's a place where the Seahawks are vulnerable, it could help Warren.
I'm a little too skeptical of Warren's role to feel great about using him. He's more of a middling-or-worse option who might have a little more value in PPR leagues until we see how the backfield will shake out.
Advice: Start TreVeyon Henderson over Jaylen Warren