Finding the Top Week 2 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Quentin Johnston, Dylan Sampson and More

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

Honestly, for the first in-season week of waivers, this is a disappointing list. Normally, there are at least one or two must-add, no-brainer players coming off massive Week 1 performances. Instead, the top predicted add is a streaming defense — that's something we normally see in Week 10, not Week 2. Still, there are some interesting names here. Let's break down all the top players in EWI. 

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WR Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers (60% EWI)

This is exactly what I was talking about in the intro. After a big performance on Friday night against the Chiefs, Johnston is definitely worth adding. But his upside is heavily capped — he saw fewer targets than both Ladd McConkey and Keenan Allen, although he at least ran more routes than the latter of those two. 

The Chargers don't have much to speak of in terms of receiving TEs, and Greg Roman's offenses usually don't target running backs heavily. That is a good sign for QJ's ability to maintain consistent volume even while running behind McConkey and competing with Allen.

And we've definitely seen stranger things than a former first-round pick putting it all together in year three. Just don't go crazy and bid too much for QJ; he's not a classic Week 2 waiver league-winner. 

RB Dylan Sampson, Cleveland Browns (44% EWI)

Sampson is already rostered in over 50% of leagues, and this level of EWI should leave him rostered essentially everywhere. Coming off a Week 1 performance in which he easily led the Browns' backfield in snaps and racked up an absurd eight targets, the fourth-round rookie should be rostered everywhere.

This is a crowded situation, and things could only get more murky if/when Quinshon Judkins takes the field. But for now, Sampson is the most attractive fantasy asset in Cleveland's backfield and a must-add.

TE Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints (44% EWI)

Johnson's Week 1 usage was excellent. He ran 47 routes on 49 Spencer Rattler dropbacks and racked up 11 targets (24% target share). He caught eight of those passes for 75 yards, landing himself as the half-PPR TE4 on the week.

Even with that usage, the Saints' overall offensive incompetence means he's not a surefire TE1. But he's worth adding if you don't already have an elite TE (or if your elite TE just went on IR, sorry George Kittle managers). 

QB Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts (40% EWI)

Just like everyone predicted, Danny Dimes was the third-highest scoring player in Week 1. He dismantled the dismal Dolphins, throwing for 272 yards and a TD and adding 58 more yards and two more scores with his legs. Of course, Jones won't score two rushing TDs every week, nor will he get to play the Dolphins every week, but he's in a sneakily very good situation with Shane Steichen calling plays and plenty of solid weapons.

Thanks to his mobility, we've seen Jones have a top-10 fantasy season once before. He probably won't reach those heights again, but he's at least a solid QB2 or streaming option. 

WR Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs (30% EWI)

If you just need someone to plug into your flex spot right away, Marquise “Hollywood” Brown should be your top priority on waivers last week. With Rashee Rice suspended and Xavier Worthy exiting early, he easily led the Chiefs with 14 targets in Week 1. In fact, he was one target away from tying Drake London for the league-wide lead.

Brown's long-term outlook isn't as rosy, as Rice and hopefully Worthy will be back eventually. But for right now, he's a very solid WR3 option as the Chiefs face the Eagles in a Super Bowl rematch.

TE Jonnu Smith, Pittsburgh Steelers (27% EWI)

We've officially reached the first player I don't agree with as a priority add. Yes, Smith scored a solid 10 points in Week 1. But the majority of his production came on a single touch-pass TD. While it's great to see that Arthur Smith is up to his old tricks of scheming up touches for Jonnu, his overall usage wasn't inspiring.

He did see six targets, but he posted just a 53% route participation rate. Unless we see multiple weeks of Pittsburgh scheming touches for him whenever he's on the field, Jonnu isn't worth adding with that usage.

Instead, I recommend adding a different AFC North tight end: Harold Fannin Jr., the Browns' third-round rookie. Not only did Fannin outscore Smith by one whole yard, but he posted a higher route participation rate (60%) and led the Browns with nine targets. More importantly, as a rookie, Fannin's role is likely to only grow from here. Grab him now before he becomes a full-time player and the hype train truly leaves the station.

WR Calvin Austin III, Pittsburgh Steelers (27% EWI)

Another Steeler, I prefer Austin as a pickup to Smith. He was Pittsburgh's clear WR2 in this one, posting a 74% route participation rate, a 20% target share, and a massive 71% air yards share. That usage turned into points, too, as he was the WR12 on the week with 15 half-PPR points.

Going forward, Austin is still likely to be just a deep-league flex play. But he could become something more if the Steelers' offensive explosion in Week 1 wasn't a fluke. 

WR Kayshon Boutte, New England Patriots (27% EWI)

Along with scoring a solid 13.3 fantasy points, Boutte led the Patriots in just about every important receiving stat in Week 1. He ran the most routes (76%), saw the most targets (eight, 17%), caught the most passes (six), and produced the most yards (103). He didn't score, but did see one of the team's three end zone targets.

A sixth-round pick who hasn't done much in his two years in the league, there's a chance Boutte never matches this Week 1 outburst. But right now, he has the usage to back up his production as the Patriots' potential WR1, so he's worth adding.

RB Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs (27% EWI)

Yuck. Technically, I guess Hunt should be added. He played 40% of the Chiefs' offensive snaps, tied Isiah Pacheco for the team lead in carries, and added three targets for good measure. However, that “team lead” was just five carries, which he turned into 16 scoreless yards (he also caught two passes for 10 yards).

Given his utter lack of explosiveness (his 6.2% breakaway rate last season was less than half of the next-closest high-volume back), Hunt's only value is the chance that he falls into the end zone. 

Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasySP. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.