Fantasy Football Stars Who Will Struggle in Week 1: Patrick Mahomes, James Cook, and More

Even the best players fail sometimes. It's more obvious in baseball, where the best hitters still get out 70% of the time, but no matter the game, good players are going to play poorly at times. That often happens in football because the player in question has a bad matchup.

Remember Darrelle Revis? His prime years as the best cornerback in the league involved shutting down the top wide receivers every week, ruining fantasy lineups in the process. While no one is likely to be on his level in 2025, the toughest defenses will make life tough on every opponent, including the stars.

Let's look at one weekly starter at each offensive fantasy position who will fail to live up to his status in Week 1. I call these players “stars” often, but really, I'm just looking for players who you would never usually bench and trying to convince you to think twice before putting them in your lineup.

Use our FantasySP defensive rankings tool to identify the best and worst matchups each week.

Quarterback

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers in Brazil

Let's start on another continent, as these teams play the second game of the season on Friday night in Sao Paulo, Brazil.

The Chargers fielded a tough defense last year that helped push them to a surprise playoff appearance. LA gave up fewer points than any other team, two less than the Eagles and 10 less than the Broncos. They gave up the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt, seventh-fewest pass yards per game, and 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.

We can't base everything on last year's numbers, but that's a good baseline to start from. The pass rush looks like it lacks firepower, but Khalil Mack is back to lead the charge; we'll see what he has left at 34 years old. This squad is admittedly a question mark despite strong numbers in 2024.

Mahomes hasn't been the fantasy player over the past few years that he was at his statistical peak. He was QB8 in 2023 and fell to QB11 last year; that's hardly a disaster, especially given his real-life success, but Mahomes ranked in the top five every year except one between 2018 and 2022. (The one year he fell short of those heights was 2019, when he missed two games and finished as QB8.)

A big part of that has probably been the lack of a top receiver, as the team never replaced Tyreek Hill, and Travis Kelce has seen his impact take a fairly big fall each of the past two years. It still doesn't look like he has that true WR1, particularly with Rashee Rice missing the first six games, so I'm betting on Mahomes being more good than great from a fantasy perspective. (He's still the best in the game in real life.)

With a defense coming off a successful season and a quarterback who isn't great in fantasy football, Mahomes has a pedestrian outlook in Week 1. If you drafted him, you're probably not looking to bench him in the first game, but it's worth considering your options.

Running Back

James Cook, Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens

Cook missed most of the offseason and preseason because he was sitting out posturing for a new contract. As long as he's in shape, the absence shouldn't hurt him too much. He has had weeks to prepare with a group that he is very familiar with; this isn't a guy walking onto a new team at the last minute.

Cook finished as a top-eight fantasy back in both standard and PPR last season; that qualifies him as a relative fantasy star. His raw numbers were actually down in 2024 from 2023, losing 113 rushing yards, 12 receptions, and 187 receiving yards. Cook got a huge fantasy boost, though, because he jumped from six total touchdowns (two rushing) to 18 total touchdowns (16 rushing). That's how you make a fantasy star.

His touches and production should both still be solid. He bumped up from 4.7 yards per rush attempt in 2023 to 4.9 last year. Cook missed a game but still received 30 fewer carries and 16 fewer targets. The team gave him a nice big contract, so they should be willing to feed him the ball to prove their investment right. That could mean more bulk with lower efficiency, which works in fantasy, but he's also likely to score fewer touchdowns, which could put him in the top 15-20 instead of the top 10.

The Ravens are the real issue here. They allowed the fewest yards per rush attempt and the fewest rushing yards per game last season and the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. Baltimore also has a high-powered offense, forcing teams to do more throwing to catch up, theoretically lowering Cook's chances of big volume.

Given their prowess against the run last season, it's unlikely that Cook is about to have a big game. In two contests against Baltimore in 2024, Cook had a very pedestrian nine carries for 39 yards and 17 carries for 67 yards, totaling four catches for 24 yards. That's a good way to value him in this game, as mediocre.

Wide Receiver

Calvin Ridley, Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos

Calling Ridley a star is probably a little too aggressive. He finished as WR25 in standard scoring last year, a fringe weekly starter. He was WR17 in 2023. Ridley also has a little extra excitement this year because his new quarterback was the top overall pick in the draft: Cameron Ward. The pair connected for three completions and 50 yards in the first preseason game, showing early chemistry.

Ward might start his career against the worst matchup in the league in Week 1. The Broncos have maybe the best defense in football. Their raw numbers against the pass last season looked more middling, but Denver allowed the third-fewest yards per pass attempt. They ranked second in pass rush win rate (by ESPN's measure) behind only the Texans.

Denver has the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, cornerback Pat Surtain III, the first defensive back to win the award since 2019 (Stephon Gilmore); before that, we have to go back to 2010 to find a defensive back winning the award, and even that was Troy Polamalu, who did a lot more than just follow receivers.

With Ridley as the clear top option among Tennessee pass catchers, he is likely to see a heavy dosage of Surtain. He will also have to deal with first-round pick Jahdae Barron and free agent signing safety Talanoa Hufanga, along with a tough defensive line bothering the quarterback.

Ward and Ridley will likely have some good days, but this won't be one of them. Don't give up on the rookie quarterback (or his receiver) if they struggle in Week 1.

Tight End

Jonnu Smith, Pittsburgh Steelers @ New York Jets

Smith smashed most of his career highs last season: 88 receptions on 111 targets for 884 yards and eight touchdowns. He scored eight TDs in 2020 but otherwise never topped three in seven seasons. The rest of those numbers blew away the best we had seen from Smith.

He was traded from Miami to Pittsburgh in the offseason, something that would seem to hurt Smith's fantasy value. The Steelers (and offensive coordinator Arthur Smith) are generally known as a running team, and they have 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers under center. I don't see Smith repeating anything close to his numbers from 2024, so that already puts him more on the fringe of relative tight end “stars.”

The Jets are another strong pass defense from 2024: sixth-best in yards per pass attempt allowed, eighth-best in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends, and fourth-best in pass yards per game allowed. They finished ninth in both pass rush win rate and run stop win rate, showing a strong presence up front.

Smith has moved to more of a running offense and will likely see his performance regress. Match that against a tough defense, and Smith is likely to have a quiet first game in Pittsburgh.