Who can Emulate Surprise 2024 Fantasy Football Quarterbacks in 2025? Cam Ward, J.J. McCarthy and Caleb Williams Stand Out

A few days ago, I looked at quarterbacks who were fantasy busts relative to where they were drafted in 2024 and then found comps who could also disappoint in 2025. I used invaluable bust/surprise data from our FantasySP database that showed average draft positions compared to where guys finished in fantasy scoring.

Let's look at the other side of the coin today and find guys who were drafted outside the top 10 but surprised greatly, outplaying their draft stock and becoming fantasy regulars. ADP numbers used below are again our own here at FantasySP.

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Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders – Drafted as QB12, Finished as QB4

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos – Drafted as QB24, Finished as QB9

Rookies are unknown entities. We see what they do in college; we know where they get drafted and what the expectations are that come with a first-round status. No one knows what will happen after that, though. Draft busts and surprise players emerge every year.

Daniels and Nix both played well as rookies and helped lead their teams to the playoffs, and they also both had plenty of veteran help. Washington brought in tight end Zach Ertz and offensive linemen Tyler Biadasz, Nick Allegretti, and Andrew Wylie (he was in 2023), among others, to solidify the offense. They helped the defense with veterans also, signing Dorance Armstrong, Frankie Luvu, and Bobby Wagner (and more) in the offseason and trading for cornerback Marshon Lattimore during the season.

Add to that improved unit a dynamic young quarterback and a head coach who had been to a Super Bowl, and Washington was one of the most surprising teams of 2024, eventually making the NFC Championship Game.

I expected the Broncos to be among the worst teams in the league after drafting Nix. My analysis was essentially, “They took the sixth-best quarterback in the draft with their first-round pick and didn't have receiving or running back talent.” Well, I glossed over the more important parts of the roster, like their offensive line, who ranked first in both pass blocking and run blocking (according to ESPN), and a defense that might be the best in the league.

Denver isn't sneaking up on anyone this year, especially not the defense, but the offense is a bigger question. Nix was below average as a passer but helped make up the difference as a runner. That's the best thing about quarterbacks who can run: like a basketball player who struggles in other areas but can shoot the lights out, the running QB has multiple paths toward being successful and can make up for deficiencies elsewhere by moving the ball with his legs.

Daniels is likely to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback again with top-three upside, while Nix will compete for the top 10 but could conceivably fall out of that group if things don't go as well, especially on the offensive line.

2025 Comparison: Cameron Ward, Tennessee Titans

Ward is the only rookie QB likely to have a chance at being a fantasy starter, as other guys will have to sit behind veterans (Jaxson Dart) or must play with the ragtag Saints (Tyler Shough). It's unfair to expect Ward to replicate what Daniels did last season; almost no rookie will perform like that. He could put up similar numbers to Nix, though, making him a usable fantasy quarterback in the right matchups.

There are plenty of similarities: Ward is being drafted around QB24, the same place Nix was in 2024. In his last year in college, Nix threw for 4,508 yards with 45 touchdowns and just three interceptions with 234 rushing yards and six scores on the ground. Last year, Ward threw for 4,313 yards with 39 touchdowns and seven interceptions, adding 204 yards and four touchdowns on the ground. Nix was a little better but also a year older than Ward at the time and with more college experience.

Tennessee also spent the last few offseasons building up veteran talent the same way Washington and Denver did before getting their young passers in the draft. Over last offseason and this one, the Titans added Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, and Van Jefferson as veteran playmakers and Dan Moore, Lloyd Cushenberry, and Kevin Zeitler on the offensive line. They also have two recent first-round picks on the line: left guard Peter Skoronski (drafted in 2023) and right tackle JC Latham (2024).

Ward has a chance to fight for a top-10 fantasy quarterback finish. We won't know what it will truly look like until Week 1 hits, but Ward is a dynamic player who can both throw and run the ball, and he has a foundation of veteran talent around him that can help raise his floor along with a second-year head coach in Brian Callahan, who was a highly regarded offensive coordinator with Cincinnati before coming to Tennessee.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Drafted as QB22, Finished as QB5

Just based off a blind test, it shouldn't be a surprise that Mayfield has been successful with the Bucs the past two seasons. He was the first overall pick and had an above-average yards-per-attempt number in each of his four years in Cleveland, three times going over 3,500 yards.

He broke out with a career-best season last year: 71.4% completion percentage, 4,500 yards at 7.9 yards per attempt, and 41 touchdowns. Add in 378 rushing yards and three more scores on the ground, and Mayfield was a legitimate player to get down-ballot MVP votes.

He also had a high-level supporting cast. Tampa's offensive line ranked fifth in pass blocking and sixth in run blocking by the same ESPN numbers linked above. Mike Evans is a true WR1, and though Chris Godwin played only seven games, he was good during that time, and Jalen McMillan filled in admirably after Godwin went down. Bucky Irving had over 1,500 total yards, and Rachaad White had over 1,000 of his own.

Those players are all back, along with rookie first-round receiver Emeka Egbuka, and Tampa Bay looks again like an above-average offensive team and the favorite in their division. Mayfield is being drafted among the top 10 quarterbacks this season; he's a good bet to live up to that standard.

2025 Comparison: Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears

Williams is another top overall pick, though he's just in his second year and still with his first team rather than seven years in on a new team. Williams had some good numbers last year: over 3,500 yards, 20 touchdowns, and just six interceptions along with nearly 500 rushing yards.

He also had clear shortcomings, including just 6.3 yards per attempt (well below average) and 68 sacks. It's easy to blame the offensive line for sacks, but ESPN rated them 15th in pass blocking (and eighth in run blocking), so Williams has to carry his brunt as well. There is reason to believe he's about to take a big jump, though.

Williams is surrounded by talent. D.J. Moore is a WR1, Rome Odunze (a top-10 pick last year) is highly regarded as a future top receiver, and rookie Luther Burden had first-round buzz before sliding to the 39th pick. Cole Kmet is a good tight end, and he is joined by another top-10 pick, rookie Colston Loveland, who should be involved right away. That's an embarrassment of riches at pass catcher.

The offensive line was above average last year, and now they have upgraded with star left tackle Joe Thuney, center Drew Dalman, and right guard Jonah Jackson, who was really good with Detroit before a down season with the Rams last year (when he also dealt with injuries). Darnell Wright, a top-10 pick in 2023, holds down right tackle, though the team is still trying to flesh out the left side.

Maybe the biggest change is new head coach and play caller Ben Johnson, who joined the Bears after three very successful seasons as offensive coordinator in Detroit. He was one of the most sought-after coaching candidates each of the past two years, and there's reason to believe that he will help elevate Chicago to a new level offensively. I'm willing to believe in guys coming from the Dan Campbell tree (including new Jets coach Aaron Glenn).

Add it all up, and I don't see a way that Williams can't be better this year. He finished as QB14 last year, and that's where he is being drafted this year. He was seen as a generational prospect, and while the first year was disappointing, rookies don't usually excel right away, and we have to give him time to adapt to the league. He might not be a top-10 lock, but I see Williams much more likely to reach that group than fall short of it if he stays healthy.

Sam Darnold, Minnesota Vikings (now with Seattle Seahawks) – Drafted as QB31, Finished as QB8

Darnold was a below-average quarterback in his first six seasons. He had a completion percentage below 60% and threw nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns in his first four years, coming in below 7.0 yards per attempt (which is average) every year. The former third overall pick looked like a career backup.

Then 2024 happened. Darnold joined the Vikings on a one-year contract to serve as a bridge/veteran competition to first-round pick J.J. McCarthy. McCarthy went down for the year in the preseason, and Darnold got the job by default, suddenly looking like a down-ballot MVP contender. Darnold threw for over 4,300 yards at 7.9 per attempt with 35 touchdowns and 12 interceptions, leading the Vikings to a 14-3 record and playoff berth.

The biggest change was his ecosystem. After playing with the Jets and Panthers for six years, Darnold had a top offensive mind calling plays (head coach Kevin O'Connell), a top-line WR1 in Justin Jefferson, and an offensive line that ranked second in pass blocking and 15th in run blocking.

Now in Seattle with a downgrade in each of those three areas, I'm expecting Darnold to play closer to how he did in his previous seasons rather than his star turn in Minnesota. He's off my fantasy radar.

2025 Comparison: J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings

Let's go back to the well. McCarthy is essentially a rookie after missing his entire first season, though he did get a year to watch and learn, which is valuable. He will be surrounded by O'Connell, Jefferson, that offensive line, tight end T.J. Hockenson (now further removed from a brutal knee injury at the end of 2023), Jordan Addison (who is suspended for the first three games), and a good defense that should help put him in favorable positions.

McCarthy is being drafted near QB20. He has a chance to sneak into the top 10 the way Darnold did both because of that system and because McCarthy should do more running of the football; he totaled 632 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns in three college seasons. He might not be a fantasy starter every week, but McCarthy will likely at least be a valuable streamer who can be part of a rotation.