AFC East Best- and Worst-Case Scenarios: Can the Bills Finally Break Through?

Best- and worst-case scenarios are a part of life. When you decide to buy a house, accept a new job, or start a new relationship, there are different ways things could play out. Maybe it goes swimmingly, and your wildest dreams come true. On the other hand, your home, career, and marriage could also fall apart; life isn't perfect.

You never know how it's going to go until you actually do it, and the same can be said about the NFL season. Every team wants to win the Super Bowl, but it's not a realistic goal for at least half of the franchises each season. If teams can avoid the worst-case scenario, though, they might at least have something to build on. You never know.

Let's look at the four teams in the AFC East and what their best- and worst-case scenarios might look like. We'll try to stay somewhat realistic on both ends, but preseason is also a time to shoot for the moon, so some of these possibilities might stretch the realm of the realistic.

Wish a real fantasy expert could break down your team, not just spit out generic advice? Now you can - get a personalized Team Breakdown, tailored for your exact league.

Buffalo Bills

Best-Case Scenario: Hoist the franchise's first ever Super Bowl trophy

It's championship or bust for the Bills after losing to the Chiefs 32-29 in the AFC Championship Game last season. The game was tied until Harrison Butker made a go-ahead field goal with 3:33 left; it couldn't get much closer unless the team lost because they allowed a score on a 13-second drive.

The only successful season is one in which the team makes the Super Bowl. That might not seem fair, but it's a compliment to how good Buffalo has been since Josh Allen hit the ground running (literally).

Worst-Case Scenario: The Bills already reached their peak and start to regress without major additions

They haven't added the big receiver that many thought they needed, a topic that caused tension between GM Brandon Beane and local media. Last year's mid-season trade for Amari Cooper didn't work, as Cooper topped 50 yards just four times in 11 games (including playoffs) and caught two touchdowns. He was anonymous in that playoff run, totaling six catches for 41 yards in three games.

Cooper is still a free agent, but his return wouldn't seem to signal big things. Buffalo is likely to roll mostly with the roster they have unless they make another deadline trade. That still means one of the best teams in the league, but either Allen, the defense, or a young pass catcher making a big leap (Keon Coleman or Dalton Kincaid, maybe) could be the difference.

Miami Dolphins

Best-Case Scenario: This group still has room to grow and takes over the AFC East, becoming a real contender

As recently as last season, Miami was a popular pick to overtake the Bills in the division behind a great running game and dangerous pass attack. They lost talent last offseason, though, including on the offensive and defensive lines, and the Dolphins felt the effects, falling backward to an 8-9 record.

Tua Tagovailoa, De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill, and Jaylen Waddle are still there. The offensive line will look different, a good thing given that ESPN measured Miami 28th in pass blocking and 26th in run blocking last season. The offense will probably be fine.

Worst-Case Scenario: The trend of the past few years continues, and the Dolphins continue to toil in the middle

There are major holes on this roster, most notably on the defense. While the offense has plenty of talent, Miami's D has been the more neglected group. Last year's first-round pick, pass rusher Chop Robinson, looked good, and they added another premier prospect to the D-line in tackle Kenneth Grant this year, so maybe they're on the right track.

I also preferred the Jalen Ramsey/Minkah Fitzpatrick trade for Miami's side. It left them perilously thin at cornerback, though, so this defense will have to prove itself before I'm ready to really believe in the Dolphins.

New England Patriots

Best-Case Scenario: New coach Mike Vrabel helps the team make an immediate turnaround while Drake Maye shows that he is a clear top-10 quarterback

Maye was part of a vaunted quarterback draft class last season that saw Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels also go in the top three picks. He would have been the easy No. 1 pick this year; Maye is uber-talented. His emergence to that next level will be the biggest factor in New England's chances to jump to the next tier.

Vrabel is a well-respected coach who may have overachieved with a talented but flawed Tennessee team, and he replaces Jerod Mayo, who was overmatched according to many reports. Making major improvements at QB and head coach is a path toward fast improvement, so there's reason for optimism in New England.

They are likely still a few years away from real contention, but the Pats can make their fans much more enthused by showing real improvement this season, especially after adding big names like WR Stefon Diggs, DT Milton Williams, and LT Will Campbell, the fourth overall pick in the draft.

Worst-Case Scenario: Nothing looks better, and the Patriots are still one of the worst teams in the league, not seeing benefits from their roster-building maneuvers

They won't give up on Maye after two seasons, especially after he showed good things as a rookie, but it would be discouraging not to see improvement with the moves New England has made. The Patriots won four games in each of the past two seasons; a good goal would be doubling that number in 2025, which would allow them to chase a wild card spot (while likely falling short).

Injuries, disfunction, growing pains, and everything else that comes with building a cohesive team out of moving parts are real worries and could stunt the growth of this team. Missing the playoffs and having a losing record isn't a worst-case scenario; looking moribund is the real worry for this franchise as they continue to rebuild after the departures of their most successful quarterback and coach in history.

New York Jets

Best-Case Scenario: Justin Fields is the answer at quarterback, and the Jets rise to the level of wild card contender, showing real growth under a new head coach

Again, the biggest changes a team can make are at quarterback and head coach. We know what Fields is, but Aaron Glenn comes over from the Lions to take the job as the head man for the first time. He's coming from a phenomenal culture under coach Dan Campbell in Detroit, and if Glenn can bring with him some of the leadership and aggressiveness that Campbell shows, he might be able to help turn around one of the most mocked franchises of this century.

They probably don't have the talent to compete for the division unless Fields turns into a new player from what we've seen, but like the Patriots, New York can create buzz simply by showing improvement and competing for a playoff spot, even if they fall short.

Worst-Case Scenario: The Jets are the Jets

The memes make themselves sometimes when a team keeps failing in spectacular fashion. There's a very realistic scenario in which the Jets are the worst team in the league and put up another disappointing season. That means a lot of losing and things not breaking their way.

With a better quarterback class expected in the 2026 draft, the worst thing the Jets could do is look awful and then win a few late, meaningless games to push them out of range to take one of the top QBs. There are worse things than losing; continuing to be a league-wide joke would be one example of a worst-case scenario.