Finding the Top Week 3 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Carson Steele, Derek Carr, Hunter Henry

Ted takes a look at this week's hottest waiver adds, including Carson Steele, Derek Carr, and Hunter Henry.

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

The first thing that jumps out is that fantasy managers are clearly leaning towards Carson Steele over Samaje Perine as the back to target in Kansas City with Isiah Pacheco out. We’ve also got a solid positional spread at the top of EWI rankings, with one player from each position and a defense in the top five. Let’s take a deeper look at some of the hottest options:

Top Predicted Week 3 Fantasy Football Adds

Carson Steele, Kansas City Chiefs (61% EWI)

Steele is somehow surprisingly low and surprisingly high. I would have expected his EWI to be closer to Samaje Perine’s, but the veteran is much lower at 33%. Then, given that fantasy managers clearly believe him to be the replacement for Pacheco, I would have expected his EWI to be higher — this implies that the presumed starting RB for the Chiefs will be available in nearly 40% of leagues, a crazy stat. 

In fact, I think both Steele and Perine should have higher interest. I did say in my Week 3 Running Back Waiver Breakdown that I would prioritize Steele in most cases, but both have a non-negligible shot to be the lead back on the league’s best team. If you can grab Steele, or Perine for cheap, and hold for a week to see how this backfield shakes out, it’s absolutely worth it. 

Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (54% EWI)

Derek Carr’s renaissance under Klint Kubiak is for real. Under Kubiak, the Saints have gone from one of the league’s worst-designed offenses to one of its best. Their rates of play-action and pre-snap motion, which are both coordinated with offensive efficiency, have skyrocketed. 

And we’ve seen Carr be an effective quarterback in the right system before: He was a legitimate MVP candidate in 2016 prior to suffering an injury.  

With that said, Carr is unlikely to keep producing high-end QB1 numbers. With essentially zero rushing upside, he has never finished higher than QB12 for fantasy in a season. But he can absolutely finish as a fringe QB1. After all, he’s currently the QB2 overall despite ranking 31st in the league in pass attempts. His efficiency is bound to regress, but his volume will go up as a result. He deserves to be a priority add for anyone who needs quarterback help.

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (45% EWI)

As the rest of the tight end position falls apart, Henry is having a breakout season at age 29. He currently leads the Patriots in essentially every receiving stat you can think of: routes, targets, receptions, yards, etc. Coming off a 12-target, 100-yard game in Week 2, he is the TE5 in Half-PPR despite not having scored a touchdown.

Like Carr, we have seen Henry have productive years in the right situation: He was the TE9 in 2019 for the Chargers despite playing just 12 games. Even last year, while still competing with Mike Gesicki, he was the TE15 in points per game. He will likely have some bust games more along the lines of his Week 1 performance (two catches for 18 yards), but he might be the only tight end in the league that is his team’s top target. That makes him absolutely worth adding given the state of the TE position. 

Quentin Johnston, Los Angeles Chargers (44% EWI)

As I mentioned in the Week 3 Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Breakdown, I don’t think Johnston is getting as much hype as he deserves after his big Week 2 outing. Yes, it was against the Panthers, and yes, Johnston had an abysmal rookie year. But he’s still a second-year former first-rounder who has a real shot to be his team’s No. 1 receiver and just scored two touchdowns. This EWI projects to bring him up to just 56% rostered, but he should be stashed in all but the deepest of leagues. 

Braelon Allen, New York Jets (34% EWI)

Like Johnston, Allen scored two touchdowns this week, and he looked great while doing so. However, I don’t think Allen’s EWI should necessarily be higher. No matter how well the third-round rookie plays, he’s not going to take Breece Hall’s job. This week is good for his fantasy stock in that it confirms he can play if needed, but he’s still essentially the same fantasy asset he was last week: a handcuff. I’m always in favor of stashing handcuffs, so you can absolutely add Allen, but just don’t prioritize him expecting anything more. 

D'Onta Foreman, Cleveland Browns (22% EWI)

I’m jumping way down the list here to a guy who should be higher. Foreman got the start for the Browns in Week 2 and led the team with 14 carries (twice as many as Jerome Ford). He doesn’t have receiving upside, and Nick Chubb will be back eventually, but he appears to be the lead back in Cleveland for now. That makes him worth adding in the majority of leagues. 

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