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24

The Fantasy Football Zero RB Draft Strategy: Can Skipping Backs while Grabbing Puka Nacua, Brandon Aiyuk, Lamar Jackson and Others Work?

An investigation into the fantasy draft technique of putting together a team with no big running backs but high-level players at all other positions.

Daniel Hepner Aug 10th 9:00 AM EDT.

Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) runs with the ball next to Baltimore Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen (6) in the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) runs with the ball next to Baltimore Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen (6) in the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

I recently wrote an article about the “Hero RB” fantasy football draft strategy. It’s my favorite way to draft: Load up on running backs, especially with high-level guys at the top. I see running backs as the most important position in fantasy and feel that attacking the position in the early, middle and late rounds is the best bet for high-level play.

Today I’m talking about the opposite strategy: Zero RB. Of course, you won’t really draft zero running backs. You start with wide receivers and/or a top quarterback or tight end in the first five rounds or so, looking for depth backs later.

The idea is that running back is such a volatile position and experiences so many injuries that those guys you take at the top aren’t as safe of bets as the rankings indicate. Wide receiver is a steadier fantasy position, so starting with Justin Jefferson and Nico Collins, for example, brings your team the highest chance of the top players staying healthy and productive.

Injuries are random. No matter who is historically healthier, anyone can get hurt at any time, whether they get hit or not. Limiting risk is a logical tactic, but it’s silly to assume we know who will miss time.

Despite my preferences, I’m going to give the Zero RB a try. In the Hero RB article linked above, I went through as if I had the first pick and saw which players were ranked around the picks that spot would own. Let’s do the same type of thing here, but I am going to pretend I’m picking last in a 10-team draft.

My first two picks will be wide receivers, and we will go from there. I will list players available at each spot to get an idea of what your fantasy team could look like using this strategy.

Rankings are from our FantasySP PPR ranks.

First Picks: No. 10 and 11

WRs available: Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Marvin Harrison Jr., Davante Adams

We just miss out on Amon-Ra St. Brown and A.J. Brown, two guys I would love as my WR1. Nacua is a great option in PPR leagues, though, and pairs great with any of these guys. Let’s go with Wilson, since he’s more of a proven commodity than Harrison but with more potential for improvement than Adams.

We miss out on some really good backs here: Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, Travis Etienne and Derrick Henry are all available and ranked in the top 20. This strategy involves treating these guys as replaceable pieces, though, so we’ll wait while 18 players are picked before our next turn.

Second Set of Picks: No. 30 and 31

QBs: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson

WRs: Brandon Aiyuk, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Michael Pittman Jr., Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, D.J. Moore, DK Metcalf

TEs: Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride

I’m avoiding running backs until at least our next pair of picks, so this is a good chance to fill other positions. I usually wait on quarterback and tight end until later in the draft. I see those as more replaceable and stream-able than either RB or WR and prefer to load up at the latter positions for the first eight rounds or so.

If I were using this tactic, though, I would probably look to choose a player at both positions around this time. There are so many receivers that we can add a few more later and have a solid group with our two studs.

No tight end is worth a pick here. They are all ranked between 47 and 53 and would be big overdrafts in the early 30s. Hurts and Jackson are the quarterbacks I like, as their running ability will give them a better floor and ceiling than Mahomes (I’ve written about this recently).

Look at that list of receivers, though. That’s why I prefer getting backs early; there are SO many good receivers. Let’s grab one more receiver who can be our flex guy most weeks and a quarterback. Lamar Jackson and Brandon Aiyuk join the team, giving us four high-level fantasy players.

Third Set: No. 50 and 51

RB: Aaron Jones, James Conner, D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery, Rhamondre Stevenson

WR: Zay Flowers, Tee Higgins, George Pickens, Tank Dell

TE: Dalton Kincaid, Trey McBride, George Kittle

With three top receivers already in place, this is a place to either take two backs or fill the tight end spot. I really like Kincaid and Kittle and see them as the last stars available at the position, so let’s start by filling that spot. Either guy would be a great get, but let’s go with Kittle, who has been in the top five among tight ends in all scoring formats over the past three seasons.

The backs are starting to come with questions. Jones is aging (30 in December) and dealt with injuries last season, appearing in just 11 games. Conner and Montgomery have young possible stars in the same backfield who might be ready to start forcing the veterans out of carries. Swift and Stevenson have veteran backs around them who will take snaps.

I love Montgomery, though. He was a top 20 fantasy back last season and will be back in the same role. He’s especially valuable in standard leagues, with Gibbs handling most of the receiving duty. Let’s add Montgomery to the team, leaving us with this current lineup:

  • QB: Lamar Jackson
  • RB: David Montgomery
  • WR: Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Brandon Aiyuk
  • TE: George Kittle

I don’t hate that group, but I’ve given you my feelings on running backs, and starting with Montgomery as our RB1 makes me nervous. Hopefully our next set of picks can add to that group.

Fourth Set: No. 70 and 71

RB: Raheem Mostert, Zack Moss, Tony Pollard, Nick Chubb, Jaylen Warren, Devin Singletary, Jonathon Brooks

WR: Terry McLaurin, Calvin Ridley, Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown, Xavier Worthy

McLaurin is a guy I love at his value. He has been over 1,000 yards in every season other than his rookie year (919 yards) and is the unquestioned top target on his team. The other guys here each have at least an argument as the WR1 on their own team, though personal preference will play into which of the Kansas City receivers you prefer.

I love some of the backs here…if they were filling out my bench. Looking at them as the RB2/3 on my team, though, is scary. I like Mostert for the same reason as Montgomery: Scored huge in 2023, back in the same role this year. Let’s start by adding him.

I would then choose between McLaurin and the backs. I like McLaurin more than any of the other guys, but our stacked receiving corps has me leaning toward an RB. Moss, Pollard and Singletary feel like low-ceiling flex types. Each could lead their respective backfield but don’t give much reason to expect big things.

Chubb is a former top fantasy pick who is returning from a devastating knee injury. His status to start the season is in question, but there’s not much high-level competition for carries once he does get on the field. I like grabbing Chubb as a lottery ticket after starting with a solid core; it’s much less appealing when he’s my third back, though.

Selecting Chubb would be trying to get RB1 value in the middle rounds. McLaurin feels like a safer option. Given that this is the last group of backs who will probably lead the way for their team and more receivers score higher later in drafts, I’m going to take a chance with Chubb and hope he returns relatively soon within the season.

We now have three receivers and three backs, so building depth is the key from here.

Fifth Set: No. 90 and 91

RB: Tyjae Spears, Brian Robinson Jr., Ezekiel Elliott,

WR: Ladd McConkey, Rome Odunze, Diontae Johnson, Christian Watson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Keon Coleman

Robinson is an intriguing player this late: Austin Ekeler is there to take a lot of the receiving work and will surely cut into some carries, but Robinson is likely to lead the way in Washington unless the veteran shows some of his old magic that made him a top fantasy football player.

There’s more depth in the receiver group, which is a theme. McConkey, Johnson and Coleman could all be their team’s WR1. Watson is part of a very young skill group in Green Bay, while Odunze and Smith-Njigba are first-round picks who are currently third options but could break into the top tier as early as this year.

One at each position feels reasonable. Robinson and any of the receivers are the picks; let’s go with McConkey. Our current roster:

  • QB: Lamar Jackson
  • RB: David Montgomery, Raheem Mostert, Nick Chubb, Brian Robinson
  • WR: Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, Brandon Aiyuk, Ladd McConkey
  • TE: George Kittle

Roster Analysis

The rest of the picks would add a kicker and defense, of course, and otherwise consist of running backs and (mostly) wide receivers. Picking up another quarterback or tight end might be OK if there’s great value, but Jackson and Kittle are going to be in the lineup virtually every week if they’re healthy, so I’d be hesitant to use another pick at those positions.

The receivers are great: Nacua, Wilson and Aiyuk will fill the receiver and flex spots every week that they’re active, meaning the real work will come at running back. I like the chance of one of Montgomery, Mostert, or Chubb finishing in the top 20 backs and maybe making a push for top 10; I don’t like the odds of all three excelling.

This requires diligent work on the waiver wire. That’s true almost every season, but this team makes it even more important to find a guy who brings top-20 value at RB. It happens every year: Starters get hurt, and multiple players come out of nowhere to help win fantasy leagues. Kyren Williams was the big one last season.

Should You Go Zero RB?

This is a good strategy for those who are frustrated with the frailty of the running back position. Locking in high-level players at the other positions means you won’t have to stream and work the free agent market unless your guy has a bye (or gets hurt).

For those who value running back, though, you will probably walk away unhappy. I wouldn’t be excited about the team we drafted above, though I see a path to success. It all comes back to personal preference: Draft a team you will be happy with. Don’t follow the rigid rules of someone else’s draft strategy if a means a team that will ruin your fantasy football fun.

#2024-fantasy-football

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