NFC Division Champion Odds: Identifying Value in NFL Future Bets
A look at every division in the NFC and how they are currently viewed in the betting landscape
Yesterday, I went through each AFC division and investigated the betting odds for division champion and tried identifying teams that had value. As much as we think we know what’s going to happen, surprises pop up every season, for both better and worse.
The Rams were going to finish last in their division until Kurt Warner helped create The Greatest Show on Turf in 1999. After the 2015 Panthers went 15-1 and went to the Super Bowl, they were sure to dominate the division the next season; instead, they finished last at 6-10.
Let’s go through the NFC divisions today. I listed the betting favorite, a dark horse candidate and my best bet for each while giving at least short notes on each team.
This is from a betting perspective, so “Best Bet” doesn’t necessarily mean the team most likely to win the division, but instead it’s the team-odds mix that offers the most value in my eyes. Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of May 22.
NFC East
Favorites: Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles (+120)
It feels right for these teams to share the top spot as the last two division champions who are both expected to be Super Bowl contenders. Much has been made about the Cowboys’ slow offseason, not signing any significant free agents while their top competition splurged on talent.
Did we forget the “rule” that the team who wins free agency usually loses during the season? With money being thrown around, it’s easy to look at a big-time franchise like Dallas and expect them to be near the top of the spenders.
Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb and Micah Parsons are all due for extensions, though, and Jerry Jones publicly stated the need to keep cap space open for those players. Signing stars is expensive; teams must pass on talented players and make cuts elsewhere to keep their top-line talent.
Philly saw the disappointing end to their 2023 season and made moves to rectify, spending to bring in Saquon Barkley, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Devin White as free agents. The Eagles had seemed to be drafting for the future, filling potential holes before they existed, but last year was enough for them to change course to capitalize on their window to compete.
Philadelphia has plenty of pieces to make a run at the Super Bowl. More will come down to the new coordinators hired (Kellen Moore on offense, Vic Fangio on defense) and how the offensive line responds to the retirement of Jason Kelce. If the team executes, there’s enough talent to win the division and more.
With essentially a toss-up between these teams, there’s not much betting value because of the short odds. The most likely winner of the NFC East will be one of these teams, but there are better bets lower on the list.
Dark Horse: Washington Commanders (+1000)
The 2011 Washington Redskins finished 5-11. They traded a haul for the second overall pick to draft Robert Griffin III as the new franchise quarterback. That move paid off immediately, as the team made a huge jump and won the division at 10-6.
They didn’t have to trade two future firsts and a second rounder to choose second overall this time, but the Commanders took another quarterback with the hope of finding their franchise passer.
A division championship after a 4-13 season seems highly unlikely, but it was the same story in 2012. Washington has plenty of good players, including a true top receiver in Terry McLaurin. They added at least one player at running back, wide receiver, tight end and offensive line in free agency and/or Day 1 or 2 of the draft.
Defense is a problem. Washington had one of the worst defensive units in the league last season, made worse by the deadline trades of Chase Young and Montez Sweat. While the team added some defensive players, there was no big splash that raises the top-level talent of the D.
Best Bet: Commanders
A lot will have to go right for Washington to win the division, but it wouldn’t be the craziest thing we’ve seen. If new QB Jayden Daniels hits the ground running (literally), a talented roster could greatly improve their record.
The competition is fierce, as mentioned above, and the most likely outcome is either Dallas or Philadelphia winning the division. For bettors looking for value, though, the Commanders are a decent choice at their number.
NFC East Division Champion Odds
- Dallas Cowboys +120
- Philadelphia Eagles +120
- New York Giants +1000
- Washington Commanders +1000
With Daniel Jones back under center, the Giants will hope for results closer to 2022 than 2023. New York doesn’t have the same top-level talent of Dallas and Philadelphia or the upside of Washington. They are likely to finish closer to the top pick than the division crown.
NFC North
Favorite: Detroit Lions (+145)
Detroit’s division title wasn’t necessarily surprising after a big jump in 2022, but it was necessary for an often-desolate franchise to prove they were for real. The Lions didn’t leave any doubt on their status as a contender, holding a big lead in the NFC Championship Game before eventually losing to the 49ers.
With higher expectations, the odds are much shorter on Detroit, making this an unfavorable bet.
Dark Horse: Chicago Bears (+320)
The offensive improvements are the big story. Caleb Williams, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, D'Andre Swift; all those players will be offensive starters or at least play significant roles and were added this offseason.
ESPN’s Bill Barnwell recently pointed out (ESPN+ subscription required) that while the Bears finished the season looking strong on defense, they were ending one out of every five drives with a turnover, a rate no team can consistently sustain. A drop to an average rate might expose a lack of pass rushing depth if long drives tire out the defense.
It’s a lot to expect rookies to excel right away, but Williams and Odunze look ready to step into big roles from day one. The offense will probably be fine, and Chicago’s ceiling will be dictated by the defense.
Best Bet: Minnesota Vikings (+900)
This is similar to the AFC South in that the Vikings are paying out more than twice as much as any other team in the division (like the Titans) while no team, including the favorite, is head-and-shoulders above the rest. I love the Bears, but they’re not more than twice as likely as Minnesota to win this division.
Justin Jefferson will be back, and the team has a good offensive line, ranking third in pass block win rate and 19th in run block win rate according to ESPN’s measure. The defense leaves something to be desired, but they brought in Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel, among others, to help that side of the ball.
Like Chicago, Minnesota’s chances of competing for the division rest with their rookie quarterback. J.J. McCarthy was very efficient in college but not always asked to do a lot. The Vikings like to air the ball out, so it will likely be trial by fire for the rookie. If Sam Darnold wins the quarterback competition out of camp, it will say more negatively about McCarthy than anything else.
NFC North Division Champion Odds
- Detroit Lions +145
- Green Bay Packers +185
- Chicago Bears +320
- Minnesota Vikings +900
Green Bay has a decent shot to win the division, something that causes them to not stand out. Much like the Bengals in the AFC North, the Packers fall into a middle ground in which they aren’t favorites but also don’t offer enough value for me.
NFC South
Favorite: Atlanta Falcons (-115)
Adding a quarterback had to be Atlanta’s top priority entering the offseason. It was so important they filled it twice, giving Kirk Cousins $100 million guaranteed before using the eighth overall pick on Washington’s Michael Penix.
It’s easy to assume Cousins will take the team over the top, especially in one of the league’s weakest divisions. We’ve seen how often that story turns the other way, though, whether due to injury or just new teammates not making a connection.
There’s enough uncertainty that I’m not even considering the Falcons at this number. They still are short at pass rusher and maybe cornerback, and Cousins, back off a torn Achilles, is no guarantee to find his old form, particularly early in the season.
Dark Horse: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+290)
The defending division champs brought back the major free agent pieces that drove last year’s playoff run. Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr. were among those re-signed (Winfield after receiving the franchise tag). This team looks similar to last year’s group in many ways, starting with those impact players.
Mayfield finished the season with at least 280 yards in five of his last six games (including playoffs), reaching 300 in four of those. The playoff games were against poor pass defenses in Philadelphia and Detroit, but he also carved up the Packers and Jaguars in late season wins.
Tampa’s offensive line was below average, something they made moves to curtail. Most notably, Duke offensive lineman Graham Barton was drafted in the first round and will presumably take over the starting center role immediately.
By the same ESPN measure linked in the Vikings’ section, the Bucs were 22nd in pass blocking and dead last in run blocking. Right tackle Luke Goedeke and right guard Cody Mauch are both recent second-round picks and will be expected to improve. Left tackle Tristan Wirfs is a keeper.
If the line improves to at least a league-average level, the offense could easily find the heights they showed late last season. The defense has enough to be a positive toward the team’s efforts to win, so another division title isn’t hard to envision.
Best Bet: Buccaneers
The Saints were the other option here. I feel better about Tampa Bay, though, as New Orleans is perpetually up against the salary cap and doesn’t have the top-line talent of their division-mates.
Atlanta’s short odds make them one of my least favorite division champ bets. The Panthers were the worst team in the league last year and added competent talent but not many stars. No one in the NFC South feels like a better bet than the Bucs repeating.
The Falcons are the most likely division champion; that’s why their odds pay out the least. I see Tampa as the easy best bet in the NFC South, though.
NFC South Division Champion Odds
- Atlanta Falcons -115
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers +290
- New Orleans Saints +350
- Carolina Panthers +1100
Part of Carolina’s odds are due to the weak division, but this is a team that just finished worst in the league then had to hand the first pick over to Chicago, and they are marked here as being twice as likely as to win their division as the Patriots and Broncos at the bottom of the league. They are unquestionably improved, but the odds are way too short for me to consider the Panthers.
The Saints have a competent quarterback, several high-level offensive players and Pro Bowlers on defense. Even with that disclaimer, I don’t see New Orleans playing up to the level of the Falcons or Buccaneers. They might have to shed talent for salary cap reasons, and Derek Carr seems to have a defined ceiling that New Orleans doesn’t have the talent to carry.
NFC West
Favorite: San Francisco 49ers (-195)
No surprise here. The 49ers might have the best roster and the best coach in football. The talent bubble will begin to burst as guys become more expensive ($50 million per year more in Brock Purdy’s case), and they must make decisions on who to re-sign.
San Francisco has two more years of Purdy on a cheap contract, though, and time to make a run with a stacked team.
Dark Horse: Seattle Seahawks +750
Seattle has drafted very well over the last few years. They have filled premium positions, finding starters at both offensive tackle spots, wide receiver, cornerback and defensive tackle since 2022. The best way to sustain a winner is to keep replenishing the lineup with talented players on rookie contracts.
Geno Smith is a fine quarterback, averaging about 4,000 yards, 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while starting for the Seahawks the past two seasons. He’s unlikely to carry the team for long stretches, but Smith can make the plays necessary to win.
The rest of the roster is solid; I like the talent the Seahawks have assembled. I don’t love them as a team, but that’s why they are +750 to win the division (and because the 49ers are so good).
Best Bet: Seahawks
The Rams were the other option here, but they offer less than half the payout of Seattle. LA also lost Hall-of-Fame defensive tackle Aaron Donald to retirement. Depth is great, and the Rams took that approach toward filling the defensive line. Losing a top-line talent like Donald, though, creates a hole that no player or group of players can truly fill.
San Fran isn’t as dependent on one player as other heavily favored teams (the Chiefs with Patrick Mahomes, for example), so even an injury to their quarterback could be overcome. It’s still hard to place that bet with such little return and so many things that can go wrong.
NFC West Division Champion Odds
- San Francisco 49ers -195
- Los Angeles Rams +330
- Seattle Seahawks +750
- Arizona Cardinals +1200
Arizona’s long odds make them intriguing. They have a proven quarterback in place (something many last-place teams don’t have) and just added a generational wide receiver prospect in the draft. Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. making a connection and fueling the offense is easy to picture.
The Rams have Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua all in place, giving them a chance to go off offensively in any game. Donald is gone, and that’s a problem, but there is still enough talent here to win. Having much shorter odds than both Seattle and Arizona makes LA a less valuable bet, though.
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