AFC Division Champion Odds: Who are the Favorites, Best Bets in Each Division?
A look at each division in the AFC and how they are currently viewed in the betting market.
The draft is over, big free agents have signed and most NFL news is inconsequential outside of major injuries. A wave of players will be released and/or signed when June 1 hits, as money from previously released players will come off the books and signings no longer affect the compensatory draft pick equation.
Bettors are surely licking their chops in anticipation of real football, but there are future bets that can be made before the season: division champions, conference champions, individual awards, and much, much more are available for those wanting a taste of the gambling pie.
I plan to go through several of these categories to see where there might be value based on listed odds and likely outcomes. Let’s start with the AFC division champions: I went through each division and listed the favorite, a dark horse contender and my best bet.
This is from a betting perspective, so “Best Bet” doesn’t necessarily mean the team most likely to win the division, but instead it’s the team-odds mix that offers the most value in my eyes. Lines are from FanDuel and correct as of May 22.
AFC East
Favorite: Buffalo Bills (+160)
It’s clear why Buffalo is here: They are four-time defending champs in the division and have one of the best quarterbacks in football. The roster has felt the effects of Josh Allen’s big contract among other salary cap concerns, as they were unable to re-sign a lot of useful players the last few offseasons.
Wide receiver seems weak even after the team drafted Keon Coleman 33rd overall and signed several complementary players. The top-line talent isn’t the same unless Coleman can immediately replicate value close to that of Stefon Diggs.
The Bills have earned their place as the division favorite, but I don’t like betting on them here because of the shallow odds and the number of questions they need to answer. There’s not a lot of value here.
Dark Horse: New York Jets (+210)
Despite just the third-best odds to win the division, the Jets don’t offer a ton of value. No third-ranked team (by odds) in any other division has better odds than the Jets, and only the Bengals (+170), Eagles (+120) and Packers (+185) have better odds among second-ranked teams.
A look at the names on the depth chart paints the picture of a team with good playoff chances. Their health record, though, looks like a ticking time bomb. Aaron Rodgers, Tyron Smith, Mike Williams, Alijah Vera-Tucker, Breece Hall: these are all former first-round picks (except Hall was picked 36th overall) who have played at All-Pro levels when healthy but have missed significant time in recent seasons, and that’s just on offense.
These odds aren’t anywhere close to reflecting New York’s actual chances to win the division. Big teams, like those in New York or the Cowboys, often get a lot of action, lowering the value of their bets. With so many guys likely to miss time, I don’t feel good about counting on the Jets for anything.
Best Bet: Miami Dolphins (+185)
Split the difference, I guess? We could flip-flop the Jets and Dolphins in their respective spots, and it wouldn’t change a lot. I don’t feel good about New York’s chances of staying healthy, though, and the Bills saw a lot of talent walk out the door, as mentioned above.
Miami lost their share of impact players as well: Christian Wilkins, Robert Hunt, Xavien Howard and Andrew Van Ginkel are among the guys absent from last year’s team. They filled some of those slots (to varying degrees), but the most important part of their sustained success might stand off the field.
Head coach Mike McDaniel was a hot candidate when the Dolphins hired him in 2022, and things have worked out as planned, as the team has been explosive both running and throwing the football. The team may be able to plug in new players and still excel in their system, especially with the main pieces still intact: Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle and (most importantly) Tyreek Hill are expected to fill their usual roles.
While there’s not a ton of value, and it’s not a bet I’m making, this might be the year things come together to propel Miami to the top of the division.
AFC East Division Champion Odds
- Buffalo Bills +160
- Miami Dolphins +185
- New York Jets +210
- New England Patriots +2400
The Pats offer the biggest payout, which isn’t a surprise: They might have the worst roster in the league. Their playoff hopes rest on Drake Maye entering the league as a star and carrying the team to the division crown like C.J. Stroud did in Houston last year.
AFC North
Favorite: Baltimore Ravens (+140)
Last year’s No. 1 seed in the AFC, Baltimore is back atop their division by the preseason betting odds. Reigning MVP Lamar Jackson is still here. The team added Derrick Henry in free agency and re-signed Justin Madubuike to a huge contract. The pieces are in place for another big run.
The offensive line lost three starters from 2023 and are expecting recent draft picks to potentially fill those holes:
- G Ben Cleveland, 2021 3rd round pick
- G Andrew Vorhees, 2023 7th round pick
- RT Roger Rosengarten, 2024 2nd round pick
Baltimore ranked in the top 10 in both pass blocking and run blocking last year according to ESPN, so there will be pressure on these guys to step in and immediately contribute. Voorhees was seen as a potential starter before tearing his ACL at the combine last year and falling to the seventh round. If he returns healthy, there is reason to believe he can step in this season.
Rosengarten mocked as a first-round pick by some but fell to the end of the second. He was part of a very good Washington Huskies team that went to the College Football Playoff, so Rosengarten knows what it means to play in big games.
If the offensive line holds up, there’s no reason the Ravens can’t repeat as division champions. It’s reasonable to expect things to take a while to click, though, making Baltimore a bit of a risky bet, especially considering their short odds.
Dark Horse: Pittsburgh Steelers (+650)
This is all based on quarterback play. If either Russell Wilson or Justin Fields can come in and provide a big upgrade under center, Pittsburgh can be a playoff team.
Troy Fautanu (first round), Zach Frazier (second) and Mason McCormick (fourth) are each 2024 draft picks who are currently slotted in as starters on Pittsburgh’s offensive line. The first two were each seen as immediate starters, so even though expectations for all rookies should be tempered, there is reason to believe this group can be successful from Week 1.
According to the same ESPN measure linked above, the Steelers were 17th in pass block win rate and 12th in run block win rate last season. That’s fine; they had a league-average offensive line. Upgraded play up front makes things easier for everyone, though, and would help Wilson and Fields as they learn a new offense and try to take hold of the starting job.
The defense has stars in T.J. Watt and Minkah Fitzpatrick and added a new possible force in the middle, poaching linebacker Patrick Queen from Baltimore in free agency. They gave up the sixth-least points per game last season, but the Steelers were more of an average team in terms of yards allowed per game and per attempt.
With the longest odds in the division, Pittsburgh isn’t a bad bet. A lot has to go right, though, and I’m not counting on everything coming together.
Best Bet: Cleveland Browns (+500)
Cleveland might have the best roster in football. Others would argue for that spot (hi, San Francisco), but the Browns are strong at every position. Except quarterback. Maybe.
The Browns traded a haul for Deshaun Watson and gave him a fully guaranteed contract knowing he would probably be suspended for most of his first season with the team. The hope was that he would return after that time as the same high-level quarterback he was prior to his suspension.
That hasn’t been the case, as Watson struggled on the field before missing the rest of 2023 after appearing in just six games. Watson’s contract dictates that he will be on the team for a few more seasons; their best chance of competing for a Super Bowl is Watson finding at least some of his old form.
Cleveland’s roster is good enough to command better odds than this. I see this as one of the best values among all teams to win their division.
AFC North Division Champion Odds
- Baltimore Ravens +140
- Cincinnati Bengals +170
- Cleveland Browns +500
- Pittsburgh Steelers +650
Cincinnati’s short odds keep them from being a valuable bet. A healthy Joe Burrow will be the biggest difference between the Bengals making a run at the division or settling in as a non-playoff team.
AFC South
Favorite: Houston Texans (+105)
Stroud played like an above-average quarterback from Week 1, taking the Texans from the second overall pick to a division championship in one season. They continued building the roster this offseason in hopes of climbing higher rather than falling back to reality.
Joe Mixon, Stefon Diggs and Danielle Hunter were the big names, and each is expected to fill a major starting role. The cornerback role opposite Derek Stingley Jr. is a concern, but the team signed two former first-round picks (Jeff Okudah and C.J. Henderson) and drafted Kamari Lassiter in the second round.
Houston is deserving of the top spot; that also takes away a lot of the value in betting on them to win the division.
Dark Horse: Indianapolis Colts (+330)
This assumes Anthony Richardson returns healthy after appearing in just four games as a rookie. He suffered multiple injuries, the last of which required season-ending surgery on his throwing shoulder.
Richardson was drafted for his extreme athletic ability with thoughts that he needed to develop, so missing essentially a full season isn’t a good start. He showed flashes in his short time, though, standing out as a fantasy QB because of his rushing.
The rest of the depth chart is strong. When identifying one hole on each roster after the draft, it was hard to pick anything out for Indy.
Expecting Richardson to stay healthy and excel is a tough ask and too much for me to make this bet. The lack of a powerhouse in the division leaves them with a realistic path to the top of the division, though.
Best Bet: Tennessee Titans (+800)
Tennessee has a fairly imposing roster considering where they stood at the end of 2023. This bet, though, is mostly about the odds. There isn’t a major favorite in the South, so the team paying out twice as much as anyone else has value.
That team must be good enough to win to make any bet worth placing. The Titans made moves in the offseason to plug holes and upgrade their talent rather than rebuild (something I thought they should do). They have functional players at each position.
Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Boyd, JC Latham (first-round pick) and Lloyd Cushenberry were all added to likely play starting roles on offense. The trade for Kansas City star cornerback L'Jarius Sneed was probably their biggest pick-up, bringing top-line talent to one of the sport’s most important positions.
Their ability to win the division likely rests on quarterback Will Levis developing into a starting quarterback. The rest of the roster is good enough, but the young QB will have to do his part. Again, the longest odds in a wide-open division make this the best bet.
AFC South Division Champion Odds
- Houston Texans +105
- Jacksonville Jaguars +270
- Indianapolis Colts +330
- Tennessee Titans +800
Jacksonville was supposed to break out last year but instead fell apart after a hot start and missed the playoffs. Many, including myself, expect the team to bounce back, but that’s far from a lock, leaving the Jags as a middling bet option.
AFC West
Favorite: Kansas City Chiefs (-230)
I don’t need to explain much here, right? KC has the best quarterback in football and is coming off back-to-back Super Bowl titles. They added a few receivers, maybe the weakest spot on last year’s roster, but the loss of Sneed could weigh heavily on what was a fantastic defense in 2023.
Dark Horse: Las Vegas Raiders (+900)
A strong finish to 2023 likely played a role in securing Antonio Pierce the permanent head coaching job. The good vibes have some thinking the Raiders could continue their ascent to contender status.
It’s a little fast for that. The team added high-level talent in the offseason, signing Wilkins from Miami and drafting star tight end Brock Bowers in the first round. They also brought in a competent quarterback in Gardner Minshew to compete with second-year passer Aidan O'Connell and likely win a camp battle.
Minshew is on the low-end starter/high-end backup line. The Colts ended up one game short of the playoffs last year with Minshew playing most of the snaps, so he has shown he can take a team that far. It’s going to be a lot harder chasing Mahomes than the teams in the AFC South, though.
Best Bet: Raiders
Denver just isn’t going to do it. They’re not going to compete in this division with such little talent on the roster and without a high-level quarterback (assuming Bo Nix doesn’t enter the league looking like Dan Marino).
The Chargers have the second-best odds to win the division, which is reasonable, but the payout on LA is less than half of that for Vegas. The Chargers aren’t more than twice as likely to win the division as the Raiders.
Kansas City is probably going to win the division, but the low odds leave that bet without much value. The Raiders are the best value pick; that doesn’t mean a division crown is coming, though. Las Vegas is more likely to miss the playoffs than win the division, leaving this as a lottery ticket.
AFC West Division Champion Odds
- Kansas City Chiefs (-230)
- Los Angeles Chargers (+350)
- Las Vegas Raiders (+900)
- Denver Broncos (+2000)
Justin Herbert is for real and probably the biggest reason LA's odds are so good. They looked like a team far from contention last year, and the optimism is likely tied to new head coach Jim Harbaugh. I understand the logic, but I see LA needing another year or two before truly competing for the division.
The Broncos have the second-worst odds to win their division of any team in the league behind New England’s +2400. Again, this group isn’t going to compete. The roster is barren of talent, and instead of adding as much as they could in the draft, they over-drafted significantly by grabbing Nix 12th overall.
Denver is more likely to have the first pick in the draft next year than win the AFC West.
#betting #2024-fantasy-football
