Fantasy Football Draft Prep: Justin Fields Overhyped? Avoid Cam Akers?
The hype train is in full force chugging down the tracks. However, plenty of fantasy players are nothing but hype and will be sure to disappoint hopeful owners this season. Whether it's inflated ADPs, social media madness, or podcasters who just can't stop talking about these guys; we are sick of hearing about them because we don't believe the hype.
Take a look at our ADPs throughout draft Season. Practice on our Mock Draft Simulator and utilize the Draft Genius for Draft Day.
Quarterback
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
We are going controversial right off the bat here. We aren't saying Fields rushing ability won't make him a very relevant fantasy QB, but the hype has gotten out of control for a guy who isn't very good at throwing the football. Currently, he's being drafted as the QB6 and I've seen him drafted as high as the QB4 in mock drafts. To put this into perspective he's being drafted right after Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson and right before Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence. I have him as my QB10 for a few reasons. The first of which is he hasn't proven he can be even an average passer yet. The second reason is, although his rushing ability gives him a ton of upside it also comes with a lot of injury risk. We say it over and over again with rushing QBs. Of the top nine quarterbacks who led the league in carries last year, only Geno Smith managed to play a full 17-game slate. When you combine serious question marks about his ability to throw with high injury risk and throw in a mediocre-at-best supporting cast; we aren't so sure he's going to be as reliable as the fantasy community is hoping.
Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis Colts
Everyone has fallen in love with Richardson's massive upside and we aren't denying that he has it. However, if you watch any of his film it's extremely unlikely he comes anywhere near his current projection of a high-end QB2 with QB1 upside. Expect him to look more like Malik Willis than Cam Newton as a rookie. We also don't believe he will be the Week 1 starter and that opens the door for Gardner Minshew to retain this starting job for as long as he and the team are having success. We don't believe he will pan out as an NFL quarterback, but we completely get why you'd draft him in dynasty. Nevertheless, he should not be drafted as anything more than a luxury pick that you plan to stash on your bench in redraft.
Running Backs
Cam Akers, Los Angeles Rams
Playing the odds here, we are betting against Akers ever returning to form. We've never seen a running back do it and a few solid games against some horrific rush defenses isn't going to sell us. In his last six games of 2022, only one defense he went up against wasn't bottom seven in the league against the rush and he played the third-worst rush defense twice. In reality, he wasn't even anything overly special when he was healthy as a rookie and that was on a significantly better offense. Akers is fools gold and the optimism will quickly turn to despair this season.
Rashaad Penny, Philadelphia Eagles
Rashaad Penny truthers will not be denied. While they will scream about, "if he just stays healthy!" Well, he's not going to stay healthy. In five years he's managed to play just 42 games with 337 carries with a career high of 119. He's missed 40 games and odds are he would have missed more if he was more in his first two seasons. It doesn't matter how efficient he is or how good the Eagles' offensive line is because the guy can't stay on the field and is coming off yet another major injury.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit Lions
Gibbs is somehow being drafted as the RB15. We get that he was a first-round pick and a pretty high one at that. What we don't get is why people are just ignoring everything the Lions have been showing us over the past two years and what we saw from Gibbs in college. We watched D'Andre Swift see wildly inconsistent touches in the same role while Jamaal Williams saw way more touches than expected and received the vast majority of the goal-line work. That is exactly what David Montgomery is going to do this season. When the Lions are in deep, Montgomery will be in the field and he's going to lead the team in carries. We saw Alabama go away from Gibbs in the red zone in college too. It's just not who he is. He should be viewed as a high-upside flex option, not a high-end RB2.
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
What has Cook done to warrant all the hype he's getting? We've never seen him be a high-volume back or a goal-line guy and he hasn't even proven much as a pass-catcher in the NFL. This includes his days in college when it comes to volume and short yardage. This is a similar situation to Gibbs but probably worse. It's not that he's a bad player, nonetheless, barring injury there isn't a path for him to be the guy so many in the industry will lead you to believe he will be. The reason he is so hyped by the community is because his last name is Cook, he played in big games at Georgia, and we have desperately been waiting for a star back to emerge in Buffalo. Just because we want it to happen doesn't mean it will. On the off chance it does, Damien Harris is that guy in 2023. While he lacks the pass-catching chops, he will lead the team in both carries in TDs this season by a landslide.
Wide Receivers
Nico Collins, Houston Texans
The receivers are all a product of hype on Twitter and podcasts and similar formats, so, we don't necessarily have a major issue with their ADP, although, we will if they keep climbing. He's one of these guys who is everyone's favorite sleeper breakout candidate. The logic is that he is a camp standout who can fill the void left by Brandin Cooks because someone has to do it. That's not necessarily true and it doesn't have to be him. This team has other pass-catchers who could soak up targets this year like John Metchie III, Dalton Schultz, and maybe even Robert Woods. Plenty of people doubt the efficiency, but a lot of people are considering the volume a lock and it's just not.
Van Jefferson, Los Angeles Rams
Jefferson and Collins are similar cases. With Allen Robinson gone and no one of note replacing, Jefferson is viewed as that second option who many in the community are falling in love with. However, we saw this team without Cooper Kupp last year leaving on an ineffective Allen Robinson and Jefferson wasn't that dude. Sure, you can chalk it up to the absence of Matthew Stafford, but even compared to the other receivers on the Rams he wasn't a standout. One of the new narratives that is driving us crazy is, "With Cooper Kupp coming off an injury, Matthew Stafford back, and a Sean McVay offense; imagine the upside if Kupp was to go down or not be himself." For the sake of the argument, let's say Kupp goes down. That doesn't mean there will be a useful wideout on this team and it definitely doesn't mean Jefferson will be. Don't reach for him because you hear some nerd fawn over him on a podcast.
Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
It's that time of year again when we hear how great Doubs looks and how he's the top target in camp. We aren't buying it. Christian Watson is far and away the most talented wideout on this roster and we will believe it when we actually see it with Doubs. We heard all the same things last year, and he was all but useless for the lion's share of the games. That was with Aaron Rodgers, not Jordan Love. On top of us not buying into Doubs, the whole offense is downgraded. He topped 50 yards three times last year maxing out at 73 yards. Don't bank on him for more than 500 yards or more than four TDs.
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo Bills
People fell in love with Kincaid during the draft process and rightfully so. Then the Bills traded up to get him and the buzz around camp has been insane. All of that doesn't change the huge sample size we have of rookie tight ends not being major fantasy contributors or the fact that Dawson Knox is still there and just got a new deal. Kincaid will be very good, just don't count on it this year. The only way we change our minds on this is if Knox gets traded which is unlikely. Pass on Kincaid at his current ADP that makes him a high-end TE2.
