Fantasy Football 2023 Draft Coverage: Players Who Will Fall in ADP
We covered the guys whose value is going to continue to climb as we get closer to the start of the season. Now we will discuss the players who will see their value continue to fall all summer or have already seen their value peak for the 2023 offseason.
Be sure to check out our ADPs and practice mock-drafting on our NFL mock draft simulator as draft season heats up.
Players Who Will See Their ADP Value Fall
Quarterbacks
Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
While Lance doesn't have a particularly high ADP, currently being drafted as the QB 26, he is still being drafted ahead of Brock Purdy and is getting an ADP boost thanks to Best Ball leagues. Plenty of, if not too many, fantasy football owners are still all in on his upside. There is a strong possibility this all falls apart in a hurry this summer as it becomes apparent that Purdy is healthy and will be the Week 1 starting QB. If you have him on your roster and you aren't a Lance truther now is the time to sell him and hope you can still get some value for him. Once Purdy is out there looking healthy you will have missed your already slim opportunity.
Running Backs
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
We have already mentioned multiple times this offseason that we believe a suspension is looming for Kamara and you should buy in on Jamaal Williams now. However, we haven't talked a whole lot about how that impacts the value of the guy actually being suspended. We anticipate him getting six games, and our best reference point for the drop-off is DeAndre Hopkins, who was suspended last year. Both are at similar points in their career as both aren't quite what they once were, but still highly productive big-name players. We saw Hopkins go from the WR5 in 2021 to the WR34 in 2022 and is now back to being the WR19 for 2023. It wouldn't be surprising at all to see Kamara's value follow a very similar path. If you want real value for him sell him now, however, he may also be a nice buy-low candidate later if you feel you can survive the start of the season without him much like Hopkins was last year.
Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos
Much like J.K. Dobbins last season, we expect the extent of Williams' knee injury to become more public and more apparent as we inch closer to kickoff. What happened with Dobbins last season will also scare off a lot of owners. There have not been many positive reports in regards to Williams starting the season off healthy in Week 1. Most fantasy owners love the talent of Williams, but healthy will end up being too big of a concern and will drive his value down immensely.
Kenneth Walker, Seattle Seahawks
Walker was looking locked and loaded as the clear-cut RB1 in Seattle this season and fantasy owners were thrilled. Then the Seahawks threw a wet towel on all our excitement when they drafted Zach Charbonnet on Day 2 of the 2023 NFL Draft. He is a highly-touted running back that the fantasy community was also very high on. This has essentially split the community and has raised questions about a workload that was without question prior to the draft. If Charbonnet looks as good as many think he will during camp, Walker could see his value continue to slide as we get closer to the season.
Wide Receivers
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
Bateman is still currently being drafted as the top Ravens' wideout off the board, which means most fantasy owners still believe he's the WR1 in Baltimore. If you can find an owner who believes that unload Bateman today for whatever you can get. Zay Flowers is going to be the top guy in Baltimore and even with the best-case scenario, Bateman will be cannibalized by the usage rate of Mark Andrews, Flowers, and the most run-heavy offense in the league. We were all in on Bateman last year. It's time to admit we were wrong and cut bait while you can still get something for him if that time hasn't already come and gone. There is just too much working against him this season including injuries, system, and his supporting cast.
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders
Currently, McLaurin is being drafted as a top-20 wide receiver. We don't see that holding up throughout the entire offseason. The talent is there, nevertheless, it's tough to buy in when the quarterback is Sam Howell. We know the fantasy community doesn't have some strange love for him either because he's currently the QB30. Scary Terry has been a great player and has still only been able to crack the top 20 once in his career to this point. It won't be a massive dropoff, but we predict he will end up being drafted as a fringe WR2 as we get closer to August.
Tight Ends
Dawson Knox, Buffalo Bills
The Bills trading up in Round 1 of the draft and selecting Dalton Kincaid has struck fear in the hearts of Knox owners everywhere. We have already seen a drop in ADP and once Kincaid displays what he can do in camp this could get ugly for his owners. However, while his dynasty value undoubtedly took a major hit, we actually like him as a buy-candidate more than a sell-high candidate. He has proven value and rookie tight ends rarely produce at a relevant level in the NFL. We suggest you either weather this storm or even buy low on Knox. While we do believe his value will continue to fall this offseason, we expect him to have a productive year and likely have more value next offseason, which is when you should jump ship.
