Preparing For Fantasy Football Drafts: Tyreek Hill Leads Overrated Wide Receivers To Avoid Based On ADP
Drafting a sleeper wideout with immense upside (see Ja’Marr Chase from last season) who goes on to deliver you a fantasy football championship is one of the best feelings in the world. Getting that sneaky wide receiver such as D.J. Moore in the fourth or fifth round could be the difference between winning and losing your league. However, nothing hurts your chances in fantasy football more than selecting a bust in the early rounds of your draft. Let’s take a look at five wide receivers to avoid at all costs based on their current Average Draft Positions (ADP) who are all going within approximately the first six rounds of 12-team PPR leagues.
Please Note: These ADPs are based on PPR formats.
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Top Five Wide Receivers To Avoid Based On ADP
WR Tyreek Hill, Miami Dolphins (ADP: 21.1)
Tyreek Hill is perhaps the fastest wideout in the NFL. In three of his last four seasons, Hill has produced 1,200+ yards and at least nine touchdown catches. He has a career average of 13.8 yards per catch. Nonetheless, Hill is playing for a new team in 2022: The Miami Dolphins. Certainly, Hill will be dealing with a significant downgrade at the quarterback position from Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City to Tua Tagovailoa in the Sunshine state.
What made Hill such a dynamic wideout with the Chiefs was his ability to break free from defensive backs on deep routes and stretch opposing defenses. Hill’s at his best when he is running 25+-yard routes. Unfortunately for “Cheetah,” Mahomes thrived in the long passing game while Tagovailoa is more of a check-down and intermediate-route passer. Mahomes has averaged 8.1 yards per attempt throughout his career and has a 6.4% touchdown rate. Meanwhile, Tua averaged 6.6 yards per attempt and has a 4% touchdown rate. Yes, Tagovailoa is young and has yet to reach his prime potential, but he would have to take a significant leap forward for Hill to come anywhere close to returning the statistics he did with Mahomes under center. That said, in Tua’s 11 full games in 2021, he averaged 33.7 passing attempts per game compared to Mahomes’ 37.2. That doesn’t seem like a significant difference but over a full season, that means that Miami skill players will see 60 fewer targets than members of the Kansas City Chiefs. Fortunately, Hill no longer has to compete with Travis Kelce for targets but he will still lose some of his target share to Jaylen Waddle, and tight end Mike Gesicki.
While Hill should have another 1,000+ yard season, doubts about Miami’s passing game linger. It is too unpredictable at the moment to select Hill within the first 20-25 picks of this year's fantasy football draft. Unless you have full faith in Tua (and his arm strength), fantasy owners should wait until the third round of 12-team leagues before considering Tyreek Hill. He has been a WR1 for many years but the end of an era could be coming in 2022.
WR DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: 36.11)
Metcalf is one of the most electric talents at the wide receiver position in the NFL but he no longer has Russell Wilson tossing him the pigskin after Wilson signed with the Denver Broncos this offseason. Now, Seattle must hold a quarterback competition to see whether Drew Lock or Geno Smith takes Wilson’s spot as Seattle’s starting signal-caller. Just like Hill, Metcalf is gearing up for just about as severe of a downgrade at the quarterback position as possible. No matter who ends up Seattle’s quarterback, neither Lock nor Smith is nearly as accurate as Wilson. Plus, Metcalf is another receiver who likes to catch deep passes downfield. Wilson is one of the most accurate down-field passers in the league and both Metcalf and Tyler Lockett will see significant dips in production in 2022.
The Seahawks are likely to rely on their running game perhaps even more so than they did when they had Marshawn Lynch. They are getting Chris Carson back from injury, Rashaad Penny looked unstoppable at the end of the 2021 season, and the Seahawks committed to drafting Kenneth Walker in this year’s draft. Not to mention, they also have DeeJay Dallas and Travis Homer on the roster. Bob Condotta of The Seattle Times expects Seattle to give third-down duties to either Homer or Dallas while Penny is expected to start the season as the Seahawks’ featured back.
Considering the Seahawks are going to use their running backs at a much higher rate and the significant downgrade at the quarterback position in Seattle, fantasy owners shouldn’t select Metcalf until the late fourth round. Yes, he’s an amazing talent but with less than mediocre quarterbacks on the roster, his upside is rather limited.
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WR Adam Thielen, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: 57.59)
With Justin Jefferson really coming into his own in Minnesota, he has already passed veteran Adam Thielen on the depth chart. In fact, Jefferson produced the best statistical first two seasons in the history of the NFL at the wide receiver position. Jefferson is clearly Kirk Cousins’ go-to target and is entering the 2022 season as the consensus WR2 in PPR formats (only behind Cooper Kupp). Jefferson should be selected in the first round.
Thielen has been a superb pass catcher for several seasons now. However, he hasn’t surpassed 100 receptions or 1,000 receiving yards since 2018 when he corralled a career-high 113 passes on his way to 1,373 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Last season, Thielen tallied 726 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. The veteran is losing a decent amount of his target share to Jefferson, K.J. Osborn, and the running backs, and don’t forget that tight end Irv Smith Jr. should be back in action in 2022.
It’s noteworthy that Thielen is 31 years old and turns 32 (Aug. 22) before the season begins. In contrast, Justin Jefferson is 23, quicker and more athletic than Thielen. In his first two seasons for the Vikings, Jefferson recorded 3,000+ yards and 17 touchdowns. Over the last two seasons, Thielen has less than 1,700 yards. Despite producing 24 touchdowns over the last two seasons, Thielen isn’t the team’s go-to target anymore and he could even lose some red-zone targets to Irv Smith this upcoming season.
More and more, it is looking like Kirk Cousins is targeting Jefferson over Thielen and now Cousins can trust K.J. Osborn after his semi-breakout year in 2021. As a result, expect significant regression from Thielen in 2022 to the extent that he shouldn’t be drafted before the sixth or seventh round of 2022 fantasy football drafts.
Based on the last two years’ statistics, it seems that the Vikings are moving towards Jefferson and away from Thielen. Thielen only broke 100 receiving yards in one of his 13 contests last season. Nothing suggests that his trajectory is going to change anytime soon. As a result, do not pick Thielen before the sixth round in 2022 fantasy football drafts.
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WR Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: 52.23)
Chris Godwin missed three games last season but still managed to produce 1,103 yards receiving yards. However, he only recorded five touchdowns in 2021, his lowest touchdown count since his rookie season. Yes, Antonio Brown is no longer a member of the Bucs, but they still have Mike Evans, Russell Gage (former Atlanta Falcon), and even Cameron Brate at the tight end position. Plus, AB stretched the field out for his fellow wideouts every time he stepped onto the field.
Not only is Godwin’s injury a concern but his target share could dip somewhat significantly, especially since many experts in the industry expect Tampa to feed the rock to Leonard Fournette in the backfield. Godwin has never been a very good red-zone threat as he is more valuable as a possession receiver. Although I probably would not select Godwin until the sixth round, he’s a solid player and shouldn’t slide into the seventh round. That would be an absolute steal.
WR Amari Cooper, Cleveland Browns (ADP: 60.24)
The Dallas Cowboys dealt Amari Cooper away to the Cleveland Browns. The Browns in turn are dealing with massive issues at the quarterback position. Notably, they signed Deshaun Watson who is likely going to miss the beginning of the season as a result of his sexual harassment accusations. The Browns then sent Baker Mayfield packing to Carolina. In what will be his first year in Cleveland, the quarterback situation for the Browns going into training camp is completely up in the air. Though Cooper produced 865 yards and eight touchdowns in 2021, he only caught 68 of 104 passes thrown his way. He went from having a catch rate of 70.8% in 2020, to a catch rate of 65.4% last season. He also recorded less than 60 yards (57.7 yards) per game in 2021, for the second time in his NFL career.
Cooper is clearly no longer in his prime, which is why Dallas was willing to part ways with him. Why else would the Cowboys deal away Cooper? It’s simple: they believe both CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup are superior talents. Cooper is in for a rough go at it in 2022, especially if Watson is suspended for the first few games of the season.
WR DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 73.05)
This offseason, the Philadelphia Eagles acquired WR A.J. Brown from the Tennessee Titans. As a result, he will become the Eagles’ best option at wideout. Over his first two seasons in the NFL, Brown accumulated more than 1,900+ receiving yards and 16 touchdowns. While they could split the target share, Brown will definitely tap into Smith’s targets. Smith tallied 916 yards and five touchdowns in his rookie season with the Eagles last year. He was targeted 105 times and caught 64 passes (61.5% Ctch%). Expect his targets to drop next season as he shares the field with Brown, plus tight end Dallas Goedert. If Jalen Hurts keeps growing into a more accurate passer, Smith will certainly be efficient. But don’t forget that Hurts loves to take off with his feet as well. Smith may be a supreme talent but I wouldn’t be selecting him in the sixth round of my fantasy league. Neither should you, especially since he’s not a possession receiver if you participate in PPR formats.
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