Fantasy Baseball Prospect Watch | Triple-A Pitchers: Chayce McDermott, Spencer Arrighetti, Connor Phillips and More
Taking a look at some of the top-performing Triple-A pitchers and highly-regarded prospects so far and determining when they might get called up to the big leagues.
The MLB is unlike a lot of the other major sports in that its minor league system is critical to a team’s success over the course of a season.
MLB teams have a 26-man roster nowadays, but most teams play far more than 26 players over the course of a season. Injuries are the biggest reason behind that, but poor play also factors in.
While fantasy baseball leagues are focused on players at the MLB level, it’s also worth knowing some players on the brink of being called up so that you can beat other fantasy owners to that player on the waiver wire. It’s even more important for dynasty league owners, as players in the minor leagues right now are tied to your future success.
While only Triple-A minor league teams were in action up until today (Friday, April 5), 30 AAA teams provide plenty to talk about. We’ll cover pitchers here after taking a look at hitters earlier.
Explore the best in-season tool to manage lineup/start decisions including waiver pickups, projections, trade suggestions, trade value charts, rest of season rankings, power rankings, and tons more with Fantasy Assistant. Use our fantasy baseball trade analyzer and trade value charts to break down trade scenarios and weekly projections to find the best fantasy options.
Top Triple-A Pitchers
We started the hitter story with Baltimore players and will start with an Orioles’ prospect here as well in Chayce McDermott.
McDermott has made two starts this season, posting a 3.52 earned run average across 7 2/3 innings. That might not seem really great, but his 11 strikeouts definitely stand out. He needs to clean up his command a bit, with 10 walks already.
McDermott has a career 4.11 ERA in the minor leagues, which also isn’t great, but I also think that helps guys move up if they are needed. McDermott pitched at Triple-A in 2023 as well, so he could be one of the first pitching prospects in the team’s system to get the call this season.
There’s several ways for pitching prospects to get called up. Injuries and poor performance are the top reasons, but being the 27th man for a doubleheader or making spot starts can also lead to call ups.
The Baltimore rotation is already beat up with Kyle Bradish and John Means on the injured list. Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez look like the only locks for the rotation right now. Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer and Cole Irvin fill out the rotation for now, but an injury or poor performance could mean McDermott gets the call at some point. I’d be surprised if McDermott isn’t called up well before the expanded rosters hit in September, so keep a close eye on the team’s transactions.
Houston Astros’ Spencer Arrighetti is the team’s No. 3 prospect and has looked good in two starts so far.
Arrighetti has allowed four runs (three earned) over 8 1/3 innings so far - that’s a 2.16 ERA. He’s struck out 10 batters, but also walked seven.
Arrighetti has a career 4.37 ERA in the minor leagues, with big strikeout numbers being his calling card. He got AAA experience in 2023, so he’s also not far off from getting a call up.
The Astros’ starting rotation has already been decimated by injuries, which has thrust guys like Hunter Brown, J.P. France and Ronel Blanco into the rotation. Houston will get several SP back as the season rolls along, which could prolong Arroghetti’s run in the minor leagues.
That might make Arrighetti a trade option at the deadline, which is when I’d start to really keep a close eye on him. A few more injuries could push him into a role sooner, but that seems like the most likely call up time, in my opinion.
San Francisco Giants’ Carson Seymour is the team’s No. 18 prospect right now.
Seymour has a 1.17 ERA across two starts, allowing just one run over 7 2/3 innings. He’s struck out six batters and walked just two.
Seymour has a career 3.44 ERA in the minor leagues and is getting his first taste of AAA action right now. Because he isn’t a top prospect, that could help him make the jump to the big leagues (instead of pushing a top pitching prospect too fast).
San Fran’s starting rotation is another one dealing with several injuries already. Logan Webb, Blake Snell and Kyle Harrison look locked into the rotation, and I’d guess that Jordan Hicks is pretty safe too. Keaton Winn is a guy that could be pushed from the rotation at some point when the team is healthier.
That makes Seymour look like a late-season call up, unless he’s included in a trade deadline deal to a team lacking starting pitchers. So, I’d keep an eye out for Seymour around the deadline, but he’s looking more like a September call up to me.
Cincinnati Reds’ Connor Phillips has just one AAA start this season, but was great in that start. He got in 20 2/3 innings at the MLB level last season, but pitched to a 6.97 ERA. He’s the team’s No. 4 prospect right now.
Phillips allowed one run on four hits over six innings while walking and striking out three batters in his first AAA start.
Because he’s already appeared in the MLB, he’s likely one of the first call ups if anyone were to get injured or struggle.
Nick Martinez, Andrew Abbott and Graham Ashcraft fill out the rotation for now, with Nick Lodolo and Brandon Williamson on the 15-day IL right now. It’s hard to put an ETA on Phillips, because it could really come at any time. If you aren’t stashing him in a deeper league/dynasty, keep Phillips on your watch list in standard leagues.
Let’s add another Baltimore prospect to the mix in Cade Povich, the team’s No. 9 prospect.
Povich allowed just one run over six innings in his first AAA start. He struck out five and walked no batters.
Povich has a career 4.52 ERA in the minor leagues and is looking to improve on his 5.36 ERA in his first taste of AAA in 2023. He’s got great strikeout numbers at every level of the minor leagues.
You could pretty much copy/paste most of what was said for McDermott from earlier in this article when it comes to Povich. Neither guy is currently on the 40-man roster, but a couple injuries or some extended struggles for a starter or two could help both guys move up.
The last guy I’m going to mention this week is Washington Nationals’ Jackson Rutledge. He’s the team’s No. 15 prospect.
Rutledge allowed one run on four hits and two walks over five innings in his first AAA start this season. He struck out seven batters along the way.
Rutledge got 20 MLB innings in last season and is now getting his second taste of Triple-A. He’s probably one of the first pitching prospects that will get the call if the need arises. Rutledge had a rough 6.75 ERA in four MLB starts.
Pitching prospects on not-so-great teams always catch my eye. Looking at the team’s current rotation - Josiah Gray, Patrick Corbin, Jake Irvin, MacKenzie Gore and Trevor Williams - I’m honestly not sure if any of those guys are safe (if they start struggling). Gore is just 25, and Gray is 26 and was the Opening Day starter, so maybe those two are safe?
Regardless, there doesn’t seem to be much standing in the way of Rutledge getting a call, so I’d keep a very close eye on him. I’d guess he is back in the MLB before the end of May, if not sooner.
#2024-fantasy-baseball #prospects #dynasty
