Conference Championship Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Tiers

Fantasy football in the playoffs is … weird, for lack of a better word. Even though this is technically a “Start/Sit” article, I imagine the vast majority of people playing fantasy in the playoffs (and reading this article) are playing some kind of DFS instead of a traditional fantasy format where you have to set a lineup. 

With that in mind, instead of designating individual players as “starts” and “sits,” I'll be breaking the Conference Championship wide receiver options into tiers based on how confident I would feel relying on them in any fantasy format. Spoiler alert, but there aren't a huge number of confidence-inspiring options left, so we're going to be going deep today. Let's get started.

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Tier 1: Target Monsters

• Puka Nacua, Los Angeles Rams

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle Seahawks

Yes, both Puka and JSN dropped duds (by their standards, anyway) last weekend. Puka finished with just five catches for 56 yards, and Smith-Njigba was even worse with three for 19.

I simply don't care. We have a season-long sample of these two young wideouts putting up numbers untouched by the entire league, let alone the very few teams still left in the dance. They are the best-projecting options of this weekend, and it's not close. 

Tier 2: The Touchdown Machine

• Davante Adams, Los Angeles Rams

Last week, Adams failed to score a touchdown, and his fantasy output was mediocre. In games without a score this season, Adams has averaged a fairly uninspiring 7.3 half-PPR points per game. That's not great, and might indicate that he belongs in the next tier after this one.

But there were only seven of those games, including the playoffs. Although he failed to haul it in, Adams saw yet another end zone target last week, bringing his total for the year to an absurd 28. Touchdowns are king in fantasy football, so this unique goal-line role keeps him in Tier 2 all by himself. 

Tier 3: Solid Options

• Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots

• Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos

Both Diggs and Sutton were in this tier last week. They both lived up to the tier's name with solid but unspectacular outings of 12 (Diggs) and 7.3 (Sutton) half-PPR points. 

With that said, Sutton is definitely riskier now than he was a week ago — losing your starting QB isn't good for a wide receiver, believe it or not. But, especially given the lack of other reliable options on this slate, I'm choosing to believe that Jarrett Stidham can do enough to keep Sutton at least decently involved.  

Tier 4: Boom/Bust Plays 

• Pat Bryant, Denver Broncos

• Marvin Mims, Denver Broncos

• Kayshon Boutte, New England Patriots

• Cooper Kupp, Seattle Seahawks

Let's start with the Denver duo, as they are definitely the most polarizing players in this group. Mims arguably belongs in a higher tier, as he is coming off an excellent 19.3-point outing on eight targets. But Mims did most of his work after both Bryant and Troy Franklin were sidelined by injuries. 

I'm predicting Franklin to miss this week with his hamstring injury, but Bryant was a full participant at Thursday's practice and will likely be active. The Broncos ran only four plays before the rookie suffered a concussion. One was a run, and the other three were targets for Bryant. Obviously, that's unsustainable, but it shows that Bryant was a big part of the team's game plan (he also was second behind Sutton on the team in routes in Week 18).

With this in mind, I expect Bryant to be the team's WR2 behind Sutton, with Mims returning to his normal part-time/gadget role. On the other hand, having Stidham under center might actually be good for someone in a designed-target-heavy role like Mims. At the end of the day, they're both risky, high-upside options, so this feels like the correct tier.  

Thankfully, I don't have to spend as much time dissecting Boutte and Kupp. Boutte is more of a traditional boom/bust deep threat, while Kupp's value just depends on how much volume he sees (he actually led advancing WRs with a 29% target share last week). They're both decent options, but don't be shocked if either drops a dud. 

Tier 5: Desperation Dart Throws

• Lil'Jordan Humphrey, Denver Broncos

• Rashid Shaheed, Seattle Seahawks

• Jordan Whittington, Los Angeles Rams

• Konata Mumpfield, Los Angeles Rams

• DeMario Douglas, New England Patriots

• Kyle Williams, New England Patriots

As the playoffs continue, we have to lower our standards in terms of players worth considering for fantasy. Not a single one of these players even appeared in my Wild Card Round tiers. Some were on bye, but the rest simply didn't make the cut due to their low route participation rates at or below approximately 50%.

None of these players' usage has improved in the weeks since. If we exclude Humphrey (whose usage will drop with Bryant back), Shaheed had the highest route participation rate from this group last week: 58%. The Seattle speedster had zero catches, and we can't count on a return TD every week. 

Shaheed also led this group with just a 12% target share, closely followed by the New England duo of Douglas and Williams at 11% apiece. Mumpfield and Whittington did essentially (or literally) nothing as well. But these guys should all run at least double-digit routes, so they're worth keeping in mind, depending on the fantasy format you're playing.