Ignore the Matchups: Why These 2 QBs are Playoff Life-Savers in Fantasy Football

With only four teams remaining in the NFL playoffs, there are no more easy matchups. The best ones come against the teams that are average defensively; those aren't groups we look to target at any time during the regular season.

At this point, we are looking for the best players to trust more often than the best matchups to attack. You will see that reflected below, as two guys who finished in the top three in QB fantasy points are the most start-worthy players of the week at the position.

Let's look at the four starting quarterbacks in action this weekend and who is most worthy of a spot in your fantasy lineup. Most stats are from NFL.com.

Use FantasySP's weekly projections to compare players and help make your toughest lineup decisions each week!

Start

Drake Maye, New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

Although he has been a fantastic fantasy player all season, I was skeptical of Maye's outlook last week because he was playing maybe the best defense in football, the Texans. Maye labored a bit, throwing for 179 yards on 6.6 per attempt, but he helped his fantasy score with three touchdowns and an interception.

The matchup is again tough in this one, as the Broncos allowed the second-fewest yards per pass attempt and the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks this year. Josh Allen built up a lot of volume last week on average efficiency against Denver: 283 yards on 7.3 per attempt with three touchdowns, two interceptions, and 66 rushing yards.

A similar day could be likely here, with Maye doing a little of everything and building volume while not having his best game. In the playoffs, that's often the best we can hope for. Maye was a high-level fantasy guy all season and has continued that in the postseason, and now he might have the best outlook of the four QBs in action this week.

Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks

I went back and forth on whether to list Stafford as a guy to start. He has obviously been great; he was QB3 during the regular season and has combined for 562 yards with three touchdowns and an interception in two playoff games. His efficiency has been down, but Stafford still projects to put up numbers.

The biggest problem for Stafford this week is his matchup. The Seahawks gave up the fewest yards per pass attempt and the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season.

In the two games these teams played against each other, Stafford had one rough game (130 yards on 4.6 per attempt) and one very good game (457 yards on 9.3 per attempt). He combined for five touchdowns and no interceptions.

He is likely to come in somewhere in the middle this time, giving Stafford a decent fantasy outlook. I like Maye's outlook a little better if you're playing DFS and have your choice of player, but either guy is a reasonable choice.

Sit

Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Rams

Darnold was the other option for the “Start” spot instead of Stafford. The Rams were good defensively for much of this year but also had times at which they struggled, including giving up 31 points to the Panthers in the first round. LA allowed the 11th-fewest yards per pass attempt and finished in the middle in fantasy points given up to QBs, presenting a middling matchup.

That probably makes this the best matchup of the week. The issue this time is that Darnold hasn't been a great fantasy player. He started off better, averaging 17.8 fantasy points through his first eight games (Week 1 through 9); that fell to 11.9 in Weeks 10 through 18.

Darnold had two productive yardage games against Los Angeles, first throwing for 279 yards, though it was on a below-average 6.3 yards per attempt and came with four interceptions. The second game was better: 270 yards on 7.9 per attempt with two touchdowns and two picks. While his yardage built up, his fantasy scores were middling or worse, partly a product of Darnold rarely running the ball.

While he could again build volume, particularly if the Rams score points, Darnold is again at risk of a lower fantasy ceiling, and I like Maye and Stafford's upside better. Darnold is also dealing with that oblique injury, though he is likely to play.

Jarrett Stidham, Denver Broncos vs. New England Patriots

Stidham is getting thrown into one of the toughest spots a quarterback could imagine. Not only is his team in the Conference Championship, but they also are the top seed and playing at home; Denver is expected to win.

Instead of being favored, though, they are giving up close to six points depending on which sportsbook you look at. That's a direct result of Stidham's place in the lineup instead of Nix. It's the only reasonable response.

The Patriots also present a tough matchup here, as they gave up the 10th-fewest yards per pass attempt and the 11th-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. In the first round, they held Justin Herbert to 159 yards on 5.1 per attempt (with 57 rushing yards); last week, C.J. Stroud had 212 on 4.5 per attempt with a TD and four interceptions.

It's too tough of a situation to trust Stidham in your lineup here. There's a low ceiling and a low floor, and even if Sean Payton can put together a game plan to help him find success, Stidham isn't likely to put up a big fantasy score.