From Hoosiers Hero to No. 1 Pick: Fernando Mendoza’s Fantasy Football Outlook

The 2025-26 College Football Playoff has been fun, with notable upsets and standout performances all over the place. The headline is Indiana bulldozing its way to the title game, and quarterback Fernando Mendoza absolutely starring along the way.

Let's dive deeper into Mendoza, who set himself up to be the top pick in the 2026 NFL Draft.

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Mendoza's Numbers

The Hoosiers' quarterback was the Heisman winner of course. At the time of the award, Mendoza had led Indiana to a 13-0 record.

He'd completed 71.5% of his passes for 2,980 yards (229.2 yards per game), 33 touchdowns and six interceptions. Mendoza had 240 rushing yards and six scores across 69 attempts as well.

Mendoza has backed up the Heisman honor with his play in the Hoosiers' two playoff games.

Against Alabama, Mendoza was 14-of-16 passing for 192 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, while adding 16 rushing yards on eight attempts.

Mendoza dazzled again on Friday in a lopsided win over Oregon. He was 17-of-20 passing for 177 yards, five touchdowns and no picks. The QB rushed for 28 yards on six carries.

He was already a good candidate to be the No. 1 pick, and he's cemented himself as the top pick (unless something catastrophic happens between now and the draft). He thoroughly outplayed Oregon's Dante Moore on Friday, and those two were the top options for the top pick.

Mendoza's Strengths and Weaknesses

Mendoza wasn't anything super special in his two seasons at California. He completed 66.5% of his passes for 4,712 yards across 20 games, while adding 30 touchdowns, but 13 interceptions.

Curt Cignetti has clearly unlocked Mendoza's potential in just one year at Indiana. 

Mendoza has turned into a better passer, and has been pinpoint when the games mattered most for the Hoosiers. The incredible TD-to-INT ratio is what NFL teams love to see.

Throw in that Mendoza can also affect the game a bit with his legs and he has the look of an NFL-caliber quarterback. 

He is 6-foot-5 and weighs 225 pounds, so he is a good size. 

Really, Mendoza has a ton of strengths, and not a ton of weaknesses. Things that scouts were worried about have been answered this season while with the Hoosiers, and he's done it against top-end college competition.

That doesn't mean that Mendoza will immediately star in the NFL, but with the right organization and pieces around him, there's a chance Mendoza is an average-or-better QB right away.

NFL Projection and Fantasy Football Outlook

The Las Vegas Raiders have the No. 1 pick, and need a quarterback. The team is searching for a new coach after firing Pete Carroll, and the new head coach will probably also have a bit of a say on who the team takes first.

I think the Raiders would be silly not to take Mendoza, as quarterback is the missing piece on offense.

You already have Ashton Jeanty at running back and Brock Bowers at tight end to lead the pass catchers. Throw in some other wide receivers and linemen and you could have a solid offense already in 2026.

If that group sticks together, that unit has a chance to turn the organization around. But obviously, not every college star becomes a star in the NFL, so getting the right coaching staff in place will be the biggest thing for the Raiders to set Mendoza up for success.

Let's say that Mendoza gets drafted by Las Vegas in a couple months. What will his fantasy outlook be?

As long as Jeanty and Bowers are in place, and the Raiders add some talent in the wideout and o-line rooms, I think Mendoza could immediately have some fantasy relevance.

I probably wouldn't rank him in the top half of the league until I saw the offense (and coaching staff) around him, but I think Mendoza would have top-10 upside with just a couple offensive additions and a notable coaching staff around him.

Obviously, this is all projection, but it feels like a pretty safe bet that Mendoza will be the top pick, and go to Las Vegas.

He should be an early pick in dynasty rookie drafts this offseason, and be in consideration for the top pick, especially if you need a quarterback.

Time will tell where Mendoza ranks for redraft leagues, but he's definitely a name to keep an eye on this offseason. Pay attention to all the moves his organization makes, not just his landing spot, because everything is important for helping a rookie quarterback out, even a top pick.