Fantasy Football Week 18 Running Back Start/Sit: Audric Estime, Tony Pollard and More

There's a reason most fantasy football leagues don't continue into the final week of the regular season. Week 18 is an absolute cluster-you-know-what, as the vast majority of NFL teams have absolutely nothing to play for. While some teams will suit up regardless, many (especially playoff teams) will choose to rest their top players, either ruling them out before the game or pulling them early on. 

This adds a new layer of difficulty to fantasy start/sit decisions, as we have to dive into tiebreakers, coach press conferences, and historical precedent to figure out which players we can actually trust to play 60 minutes, let alone score fantasy points. With this in mind, here are my picks for three running backs to start and three to sit if your league has made the mistake of still playing fantasy football in Week 18. 

For more help with your toughest Week 18 start/sit decisions, check out FantasySP's NFL Start/Sit tool!

Running Backs to Start Week 18

Audric Estime, New Orleans Saints

After giving Taysom Hill some Make-a-Wish usage in his final game in New Orleans in Week 16, the Saints relied on actual running backs to handle the load in Week 17. Estime had 14 of the team's 19 non-QB carries, a very solid 74% share. The former Bronco also dominated the backfield with a 79% snap share and a 65% route participation rate, although he did see just one target (a 4% share). 

In terms of motivation, the Saints have nothing to play for this week … but that's been the case for a while now. Their offense has actually been quietly effective over the last month or so, with 26.8 points per game since Week 14. Tyler Shough may be the oldest rookie of all time, but he's played well, and Kellen Moore clearly deserves more credit than he got for the Eagles' offensive dominance last season. 

The Saints are facing another team that has nothing to really play for in the Falcons. The Falcons' defense is solid, but their overall incompetence as a team means they still rank as an above-average matchup for opposing running backs. Estime is actually available in over 80% of leagues right now — even if that number is lower in leagues that are still playing, he might be available on waivers as an option to fill in for absent studs this week. 

Whoever Starts for the Cowboys

We're sticking with teams that have nothing to play for, as the Cowboys have been eliminated from the postseason for a while now. But they have stated that their starters will keep playing regardless, so this is a relatively safe team to target.

However, there are some question marks as to who that starter will be at running back for Dallas this week. Javonte Williams has yet to practice while dealing with shoulder and neck injuries; the same goes for his primary backup, Malik Davis, who is listed with an odd combination of calf and eye issues. If they are both out, fifth-round rookie Jaydon Blue is the likely next man up, with fullback Hunter Luepke playing a role on passing downs. ‘

Whoever the Cowboys' RB1 is, they will get an excellent matchup with the Giants' dreadful run defense. New York allows over 5.6 yards per carry to opposing backs, by far the most of any team in the league. They also rank as the fifth-softest matchup in terms of good old-fashioned fantasy points. Whether it's Williams, Davis, Blue, or even Phil Mafah, the Cowboys' lead rusher for this week should be able to provide a solid fantasy outing. 

Rhamondre Stevenson/TreVeyon Henderson, New England Patriots

Don't be fooled by the fact that Stevenson had three times as many fantasy points in Week 17 — Henderson is an equal member of this committee, if not the team's 1A. The rookie had 19 carries to the veteran's eight last week. 

Even if we filter to just the first half (New England pulled Drake Maye partway through the third as the Jets failed to put up any sort of a fight), Henderson had 12 carries to Stevenson's eight. On the other hand, Stevenson is still the clear leader in the receiving game. He finished Sunday with five targets on 18 routes, while Henderson was not targeted once on his 10 routes. 

Thankfully, there should be room for both backs to produce this week as the Patriots host the Dolphins. Miami's run defense has improved massively after a horrid start to the season, but it is still an above-average matchup for fantasy RBs. The Patriots — who are playing for the one seed — also have an excellent 28-point team total, the second-highest of any team this week.

In a week with so many question marks, the fact that this backfield is split is less scary than it normally would be, leaving both of these backs as relatively solid options. 

Running Backs to Sit Week 18

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay Packers

This one is simple. The Packers have secured a playoff berth, but they are 100% destined to be the NFC's seven seed. Their matchup this week with the Vikings is entirely inconsequential.

Jacobs has been dealing with knee injuries for essentially the whole season, so it's not surprising at all that we have confirmation that he won't play much (if at all) on Sunday. Get him out of your lineup. 

Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers

Hampton is much more likely to play this weekend than Jacobs. A healthy rookie (although Hampton didn't practice on Wednesday with an ankle injury, I'm willing to bet that was closer to a rest day than anything else) is a far less obvious rest candidate than a banged-up veteran. And the Chargers, unlike the Packers, do still have seeding implications to play for. 

But, even if he plays, I'm worried about Hampton this week. Although this game isn't entirely meaningless, the Chargers have already declared that they will give Justin Herbert the week off to rest his broken hand. Herbert's heroics have been the only thing keeping this offense together with their two elite tackles sidelined. With him also out against the Broncos' top-tier defense, things are likely to get ugly. We're talking “12.5-point team total” ugly.

In that environment, Hampton is essentially a must-bench, even before we consider the chance that he might see a smaller-than-usual workload.

Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans

This pick has nothing to do with motivation or a risk of resting. The Titans have had nothing to play for since essentially Week 1, after all. I just don't like this spot for Pollard. To be fair, the veteran's workload has increased since Tennessee's Week 10 bye. He has averaged an excellent 72% RB rush share and 11.8 points per game over the last seven weeks. 

But really, the vast majority of Pollard's production has come over the last four weeks, in which he has scored 28.1, 17.7, 10.2, and 10.5 half-PPR points. Obviously, those recent results are encouraging. However, those games were against the terrible Browns, the defense-challenged 49ers, the Chris Oladokun-led Chiefs, and the mediocre Saints.

This week, the Titans are on the road in Jacksonville. The Jaguars are playing for the one seed, and their defense is the third-toughest against fantasy running backs. The Titans are underdogs by nearly two full touchdowns (13.5 points). They're not going to get the opportunity to give Pollard the 20 carries he has averaged over the last month. He's not a must-bench given the context of the week, but I certainly wouldn't feel confident starting Tony P in a fantasy football championship.