Fantasy Football Week 10 Who Should I Start? Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, Sam Darnold, and More
Comparing Justin Herbert to four quarterbacks playing in the later/night games that he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
Sunday Night Football pits the Los Angeles Chargers against the Pittsburgh Steelers. LA is 6-3 and Pittsburgh 5-3, so there are major playoff implications involved; that is starting to matter now that we have reached the second half of the season.
Justin Herbert has been one of the most statistically productive players in the league. He entered the week second in both passing yards and passing touchdowns and ranked as fantasy QB2.
Herbert has rightly been a hot fantasy topic, and that includes showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool. With a strong matchup in Week 10, owners are trying to determine just how high Herbert ranks in the fantasy hierarchy.
Let's look at Herbert and four players who he has been matched up with often on the start/sit tool. We will do a head-to-head quick hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
I mentioned some of Herbert's plaudits above, but he has been just a little better than average from an efficiency standpoint, averaging 7.4 yards per pass attempt, behind 12 other quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts. He is in the top five in volume, though, and it's much harder to keep great efficiency when throwing it so much; Herbert is having a strong season.
The matchup here is a positive one, as the Steelers have given up the 10th-most yards per pass attempt and the fifth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They haven't given up a ton of rushing production to QBs, but that might also have to do with the opponents, as good runners in Justin Fields and Drake Maye both topped 40 rushing yards.
Running is part of Herbert's fantasy success, and he is likely to use his legs again here. Match that with the volume at which he is throwing, and it's not a surprise that the LA quarterback ranks so high in fantasy. With a good matchup, Herbert looks like a strong fantasy play this week.
Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Darnold put together a nice MVP case over the first half of the season, averaging 260.5 passing yards per game on a league-leading 9.6 per attempt with 16 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He doesn't run the ball, but Darnold is throwing it as well as anyone.
The Cardinals are a tougher matchup, as they have given up the seventh-fewest yards per pass attempt and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. When these teams played in Week 4, Darnold had a good game with 242 yards on 9.3 per attempt, but he threw just one touchdown and finished as QB18.
Advice: Start Justin Herbert over Sam Darnold. With a tougher matchup, Darnold is probably in line for another modest fantasy day rather than pushing the top 10.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders
Goff is averaging 8.0 yards per pass attempt, right in line with the past three seasons, when he has been his best with the Lions. His 73.8% completion is the best of his career, and Goff has 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions.
This is also a great matchup, as the Commanders have allowed the most yards per pass attempt and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Washington has given up 19 touchdown passes with five interceptions, matching up well for Goff to throw multiple TDs.
Advice: This is a tough one, as both players have positive outlooks. Though Goff has the better matchup, I have to say to start Herbert because his running gives him a major advantage that Goff will never match.
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles @ Green Bay Packers
Hurts is generally a must-start player, but the Packers are a tough defensive team, and Hurts has been very good but not a fantasy stud at all times as he was in the past, ranking as QB8 heading into Week 10.
I have a hard time ever betting against Hurts, but it's hard to argue that his effectiveness is down, including averaging around 28 rushing yards per game when he has never previously averaged less than 35 when starting and has generally been closer to 50. Hurts has scored five touchdowns and thrown for 15 (on pace for a career-high 32 passing TDs), keeping him among the top-10 fantasy quarterbacks.
Green Bay has allowed the fewest yards per pass attempt and the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. QBs haven't found any running success, as only Jayden Daniels (17 yards) and Jacoby Brissett (26) reached double-digit rushing yards, and just one touchdown has been scored by a quarterback against Green Bay.
Advice: This is a really tough one. I would usually never say to leave Hurts on the bench, but this is a strong defense in Green Bay, and things are pointing against the Philly QB. Since he has the much better matchup, I'll say to start Justin Herbert over Jalen Hurts, but it's 50/50.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Stafford's 268.4 passing yards per game are the best of anyone who has played at least three games, and his 21 touchdowns lead the league. He has also thrown just two interceptions, looking as good here as he has during any half-season of his career.
San Francisco sits right in the middle in both yards per pass attempt allowed and fantasy points per game given up to quarterbacks. They started the year better, but San Fran has been decimated by injuries, losing their top two defenders, Nick Bosa and Fred Warner, for the season. With more injuries piling up, the 49ers are vulnerable on defense.
Advice: This one falls into the same category as Herbert versus Goff, as both players have good outlooks, but Herbert's running gives him the advantage. Start Justin Herbert over Matthew Stafford in a close matchup.