Fantasy Football Week 10 Quarterback Who Should I Start? Baker Mayfield, Jaxson Dart, Caleb Williams, and More
Comparing Baker Mayfield to five quarterbacks who he has been matched up with often on the FantasySP start/sit tool.
Baker Mayfield has played like an MVP candidate at times this season: in a four-game stretch from late September into early October, he averaged 289.3 passing yards per game on 9.3 per attempt with seven touchdowns and just one interception, adding 86 rushing yards.
In the other four games (the first two of the season and the most recent two), Mayfield averaged just 190.5 yards per game on 5.3 per attempt with 72 rushing yards. His six touchdowns and one interception in that time are fine, but Mayfield was a below-average quarterback in those games.
That inconsistency has fantasy owners questioning where Mayfield really stands, and as a result, he is showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool.
Let's look at Mayfield and five quarterbacks who he has been compared to often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.
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Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots
Mayfield ranks as QB12 and just had his bye; he's in position to be a top-10 fantasy quarterback for the third straight season. Mayfield is worthy of fantasy consideration every week, though he's not necessarily a weekly starter.
The matchup this week is a positive one, as the Patriots have allowed the ninth-most yards per pass attempt and sit right in the middle in fantasy points per game given up to quarterbacks. They had been worse against QBs, but they have faced four straight weaker passers: Spencer Rattler, Cameron Ward, Dillon Gabriel, and Michael Penix Jr.
That stretch of easier opponents is likely the biggest reason they have been better from a fantasy standpoint, and I still see New England as a team to target. They don't give up much running, but Josh Allen went for 53 yards, so Mayfield might be able to find a little room. Mayfield is a solid fantasy QB this week.
Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Darnold's own MVP case keeps getting stronger, as he is averaging 260.5 passing yards per game on a league-leading 9.6 per attempt with 16 touchdowns and just five interceptions. He doesn't run the ball, but Darnold is throwing it as well as anyone.
The Cardinals present a little tougher matchup. They have given up the seventh-fewest yards per pass attempt and the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. When these teams played in Week 4, Darnold had a good game with 242 yards on 9.3 per attempt, but he threw just one touchdown and finished as QB18.
Advice: Start Baker Mayfield over Sam Darnold. Darnold's matchup is tougher, leaving him in danger of another quieter fantasy day even if he finds some success.
Jaxson Dart, New York Giants @ Chicago Bears
Next year, Dart is going to be drafted in fantasy as a weekly starter. The way he has run the ball (along with big passing stats at times) gives him the ceiling of some of the top guys in fantasy. Dart is QB16 despite not playing the first three weeks.
The Bears offer one of the best matchups around, as they have given up the third-most yards per pass attempt and the sixth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They haven't given up a ton of QB rushing stats, but good runners in Jayden Daniels and Tyler Huntley both went over 50 yards, so Dart has a chance to excel in that area.
Advice: Start Jaxson Dart over Baker Mayfield. Dart has the upside of the top quarterback in fantasy this week, so while Mayfield has a positive outlook, Dart is one of my favorite players in Week 10.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions @ Washington Commanders
Goff is doing Goff things. His 8.0 yards per attempt are right in line with the past three seasons, when he has been his best with the Lions. His 73.8% completion is the best of his career, and Goff has 17 touchdowns to three interceptions.
This is a fantastic matchup, as the Commanders have given up the most yards per pass attempt and the fourth-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Washington has given up 19 touchdown passes with just five interceptions.
Advice: Start Jared Goff over Baker Mayfield. This is a close one, and Mayfield's running gives him an advantage, but the matchup is good enough to push Goff slightly above.
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Stafford might actually be the MVP of the first half: his 268.4 passing yards per game are the best of anyone who has played at least three games, and his 21 touchdowns lead the league. Throw in just two interceptions, and Stafford has been nearly unflappable.
San Francisco sits right in the middle in both yards per pass attempt and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. They started the year better, but they have just been decimated by injuries, capped by losing both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner for the season. With more injuries piling up, the 49ers are vulnerable on defense.
Advice: Start Baker Mayfield over Matthew Stafford. This one is really close, as both players have positive outlooks, but the advantage goes to Mayfield's rushing ability.
Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants
Williams ranks as fantasy QB10 and has already had his bye, showing himself to be a viable candidate every week. That doesn't mean he should always be in a lineup, but there has been enough positive that Williams can be considered in each game depending on the opponent. Last week, he even caught a touchdown pass on the way to a QB1 finish.
The Giants sit right in the middle in yards per pass attempt allowed, but they have given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. That worse fantasy performance comes from volume and touchdowns, as opposing quarterbacks average nearly 250 yards per game against New York with 15 TDs and just four interceptions.
Advice: This is another 50/50 one. I'll give the slight advantage to Mayfield because he has a longer track record of success, but I could be talked into Williams easily.