Finding the Top Week 10 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Alec Pierce, Sam Darnold and More

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

After a couple of weeks of obvious smash pickups, this week's top options are a little uninspiring. There were no major injuries this week, and the trade deadline hasn't turned any widely available players into obvious must-adds (yet).

In fact, a couple of the upcoming names actually saw their values decrease as a result of trades today, so their early EWI results might be misleading. I'll point them out when we get there, so let's get started.

Check out fantasy football waiver wire targets all season on FantasySP. 

WR Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts (35% EWI)

Originally, I was skeptical of Pierce coming off just his second double-digit fantasy outing of the season. But the more I look into the Colts' deep threat, the more attractive he gets. Across seven games (even including one he left early with injury), Pierce has a 19% target share and a 45% air yards share in Indianapolis' elite offense. 

He also ranks 12th in the entire league in receiving yards per game. The only thing holding back his fantasy production is the fact that he has zero TDs so far this season, which will likely change — he is a great add if you are looking for WR help, although be prepared to spend up given he leads in EWI this week.

QB Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks (24% EWI)

Darnold absolutely diced up the Commanders' secondary on Sunday night, finishing with his second 28-point outing of the last four weeks. In general, Darnold has played excellently to start his Seattle tenure, ranking first in both PFF Pass Grade and EPA per play. 

This hasn't translated perfectly to fantasy production, where his 17.8 points per game rank tied for 15th among QBs. But, especially with Rashid Shaheed adding a deep threat to Seattle's passing game, Darnold should continue to provide at least solid results going forward.

He is worth adding if you need QB help in deeper formats, although I wouldn't bother adding him just to be your backup if you have a true QB1. 

WR Tory Horton, Seattle Seahawks (24% EWI)

Unfortunately, Horton is one of the aforementioned losers of today's trade deadline.

The rookie had a breakout game with Cooper Kupp sidelined on Sunday night, catching two TDs for 18.8 half-PPR points. But the arrival of Shaheed will push him back down the pecking order — he's not a priority add this week. 

WR Jakobi Meyers, Jacksonville Jaguars (21% EWI)

This is a weird one, as Meyers is already 90% rostered. Normally, that would preclude him from showing up on this list, but the hype is unsurprisingly high after the veteran was traded to the Jaguars.

With Travis Hunter on IR and Brian Thomas Jr. dealing with a high-ankle sprain, Meyers could step in immediately as Jacksonville's WR1 — he is a must-add if he happens to be available in your league.

WR Parker Washington, Jacksonville Jaguars (21% EWI)

Unfortunately, fantasy football is a zero-sum game (more or less, anyway). Meyers arriving in Jacksonville means someone else is losing targets and, therefore, value.

Washington, coming off a solid outing, is the unfortunate loser. Outside of deep leagues, he is no longer worth considering as an add this week. 

TE Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears (17% EWI)

On the one hand, a lot of things had to go right for Loveland's breakout game. The rookie TE has never reached a 50% route participation rate in a game where Cole Kmet was fully healthy. Kmet exited early with a concussion on Sunday, and Loveland took advantage of a terrible Bengals defense in his absence. If Kmet stays in, Loveland probably wouldn't rank this high in EWI.

On the other hand, we have a rookie with elite draft capital (Loveland was the 10th overall pick this year) flashing playmaking ability. Yes, the Bears' offense is crowded, and yes, Kmet will be back after probably just one week off, but, if Loveland can keep making plays, there's a chance he can hold off the returning vet to be Chicago's clear TE1.

I wouldn't bother in shallow leagues, but he's worth stashing to see what happens in deeper formats. 

QB J.J. McCarthy, Minnesota Vikings (17% EWI)

McCarthy has now played a grand total of three NFL games. In two of them, he has provided decent fantasy results: 23.2 points against the Bears in Week 1 and 19.9 against the Lions on Sunday. He did require a rushing TD in both games to reach those totals, but mobility is a part of his game. 

With that said, given this healthy EWI, I don't recommend fighting for him on waivers this week. McCarthy isn't likely to go full Jaxson Dart, so most of his fantasy production will have to come from his arm. And he has yet to complete 15 passes or throw for even 160 yards in a game. Outside of 2-QB or particularly deep leagues, he's not worth adding.  

QB Joe Flacco, Cincinnati Bengals (17% EWI)

Now here's a player worth chasing if you need QB help. Flacco has now averaged an elite 25.4 fantasy points per game in his four games as the Bengals' QB.

He's taking advantage of the same top-tier receivers and truly terrible defense that have allowed Joe Burrow to put up top-tier fantasy numbers as a pure pocket passer. There's a chance the wings fall off this Elite Dragon at some point, but feel free to ride him until they do. 

TE Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints (17% EWI)

Already coming off three straight decent performances, Johnson is a sneaky trade deadline winner, as Shaheed's departure will mean more targets to go around in New Orleans. Even with Shaheed, Johnson has averaged respectable usage in the Saints' offense: an 18% target share and 16% air yards share on a 78% route participation rate.

Because Kellen Moore's offense is running at such a fast pace, he actually ranks sixth among all tight ends in targets per game. He's worth adding if you need TE help. 

WR Olamide Zaccheaus, Chicago Bears (17% EWI)

On the one hand, Zaccheaus has consistently been involved as the primary slot WR in the Bears' offense, despite fantasy managers' wishcasting that Luther Burden III plays ahead of him. But his usage hasn't actually been that good: a 17% target share and a 13% air yards share on just a 58% route participation rate. 

Additionally, Zaccheaus' 14.8 points on Sunday were his first time above even seven half-PPR points on the season. If you can only score against the Bengals, you're not a real fantasy option. Leave the veteran on waivers.