Fantasy Football Week 9 Running Back Start/Sit: Alvin Kamara, Bam Knight and More
Ted Chmyz goes over the running backs you can trust and those you can't in this Week 9 fantasy football start/sit breakdown.
Welcome to Week 9's fantasy football start/sit breakdown for the running back position!
As always, I'd like to start with a quick look back at last week's results. For the second straight week, pretty much every player I featured had a mediocre to bad outcome. In fact, in Week 8, four out of the five individual players I listed finished with less than six points and outside the top 30 RBs on the week.
On the sit side, that means Rhamondre Stevenson (5.4 half-PPR points) and Jacory Croskey-Merritt (2.5) were both excellent calls. But on the start side, Rico Dowdle (5.4) and my deep pick of Kyle Monangai (2.4) were similarly mediocre. The one exception was Woody Marks, who came through with a solid 13.1 points as a start pick.
To be fair, I did lower my standards for both sections with six teams on bye last week. This week there are just four teams missing, and having two extra rosters to choose from makes more of a difference than you might think. Without further ado, here are my running back starts and sits for Week 9.
For more help with your toughest Week 9 Start/Sit decisions, check out FantasySP's NFL Start/Sit tool!
Running Backs to Start Week 9
Tyrone Tracy Jr., New York Giants
With Cam Skattebo unfortunately done for the season, Tracy and Devin Singletary should split the Giants' backfield. That was the case last season, and Tracy (then a rookie) averaged a solid 11.9 half-PPR points from Week 5 onward.
If anything, Tracy's range of outcomes is higher this season, as Jaxson Dart has brought life to New York's offense. He also has a solid matchup this week, at home against the 49ers and their injury-riddled defense.
If you were lucky enough to get Tracy off waivers this week — or, even better, have him stashed already — don't hesitate to plug him into your lineup.
Bam Knight, Arizona Cardinals
With Trey Benson sidelined, Knight has undeniably been the Cardinals' RB1 in their last two matches. In those two games, he handled 58% of the team's RB carries on 48% of the offensive snaps. He also saw six targets for a 7.5% target share on a 27% route participation rate.
Heading into Week 9, Knight's role should only trend in a positive direction. The Cardinals cut Michael Carter, who had been his main competition, at the start of this week. Carter was re-signed to Arizona's practice squad and could still be elevated for gameday, but it would certainly be an odd choice to cut him if they planned on expanding his role.
Now, Arizona's backfield is still a committee, and Knight is just the lead member. Given that the Cardinals' offense is thoroughly mediocre, that's by no means a dream fantasy situation. However, what is a dream fantasy situation is facing the Cowboys' defense, and that's what Knight and the Cardinals will do this week.
Dallas gives up the third-most points per game to opposing RBs and ranks second in both total points and total yards allowed. With that in mind, Knight is a solid play as an RB3 or even borderline RB2 this week.
Kareem Hunt, Kansas City Chiefs
It has flown slightly under the radar, but Isiah Pacheco exited the Chiefs' Monday night victory early with a sprained MCL. As of Thursday, Kansas City's de facto RB1A has yet to return to practice. Chances are, he will miss this week's matchup, at least.
That opens the door for Hunt, who is already seeing a solid share of the usage in the Chiefs' backfield, to take on an even bigger workload.
Rookie Brashard Smith will also likely see more work than usual, and he is a viable streaming play for deep leagues in his own right. But he has mostly been used as a pass-catcher in competitive games this season, so Hunt should see the bulk of the ground work.
We can be especially sure that the veteran will claim any valuable touches by the goal line, which he has dominated even with Pacheco healthy, handling six of the team's seven attempts and 18 of 23 snaps inside the five.
Given that the Chiefs have a healthy 27.5-point team total for this marquee matchup with the Bills, that gives Hunt an excellent chance to score a touchdown. That alone makes him a viable streaming play; anything else he can get will be a bonus.
Running Backs to Sit Week 9
Woody Marks, Houston Texans
As mentioned in the intro, Marks was my only successful start pick in Week 8. So why has he been downgraded to the sit section? There are a few reasons. The first and most obvious is that the Texans' matchup this week is brutal. They are set to face the Broncos, a matchup of two teams with elite defenses and mediocre defenses. Unsurprisingly, this game has the lowest total of the week, a miserably 39.5.
However, the Texans are actually 1.5-point favorites — this would be good for most running backs, but it is actually bad for Marks. The rookie, who is a talented pass-catcher, has seen more work in negative game scripts, while veteran Nick Chubb is the team's preferred grinder in neutral or positive situations.
We even saw this last week, as the Texans comfortably beat the 49ers. Chubb handled 17 carries to Marks' 11, and he led the backfield in snaps for the first time since Week 3. In general, last week's usage was a sign that Marks has still by no means taken over this backfield. He's not a must-bench player, but he's also someone I would recommend avoiding if you have other options.
Jordan Mason, Minnesota Vikings
Week 8 was brutal for Mason's fantasy value. Aaron Jones Sr. returned from his hamstring injury and immediately served as the Vikings' lead back, playing 53% of snaps to Mason's 34%. Even though Mason is theoretically the early-down grinder of the backfield, Jones also outcarried him, albeit by just one in a low-volume game, 5-4.
With that said, I actually still have some hope for Mason going forward. In more positive game scripts, he should get more opportunities, giving him a chance to provide fantasy value.
Unfortunately, that chance isn't coming this week. The Vikings are massive 8.5-point underdogs on the road against the Lions. Detroit's defense is the fourth-toughest opponent for running backs, in large part because their explosive offense puts opponents in pass-first mode.
With J.J. McCarthy back under center for the first time since Week 2, things could get ugly fast for Minnesota this week. And, as we saw last week, Mason is not the kind of back who is going to see work when his team is struggling. Don't give up on him for the long term, but make sure Mason isn't in your lineup this week.
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints
Heading into last week, there was a chance that Kamara's fantasy stock was about to be on the rise. The former All-Pro had been steadily losing work to Kendre Miller, but the third-year back unfortunately suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Week 7.
That left Kamara alone with sixth-round rookie Devin Neal (and 35-year-old gadget player Taysom Hill) in the Saints' backfield. Given his still-excellent receiving usage, a larger share of carries could elevate Kamara back to RB2 status.
Unfortunately, that didn't come to pass. Even in a game the Saints were losing from start to finish, Kamara played just five more snaps than Neal, 37-32. Neal didn't handle any carries, but Kamara hardly did either, with just six (Hill had two). Meanwhile, the rookie actually led the backfield in targets (three to Kamara's two) and route participation rate (33% to 25%).
If Kamara were his old elite self, or the Saints' offense were better, this split usage could be manageable. But at 30 years old, Kamara is no longer providing average, let alone elite, efficiency. Meanwhile, New Orleans' offense is likely to get worse before it gets better with rookie Tyler Shough now the team's starting quarterback.
The Saints have a brutal 14.75-point implied total this week, the lowest in the entire league. Especially against an excellent Rams' defense which gives up the second fewest points per game to opposing RBs, Kamara is a borderline must-bench.