Week 9 Fantasy Football Drop Candidates: Caleb Williams, Jerry Jeudy and More

Last week, I finally bit the bullet and included TreVeyon Henderson as a potential drop candidate. Of course, he immediately had by far his most promising NFL outing to date (not that his usage got any better).

Such is the nature of picking drops this deep into the season — most widely rostered players have at least some upside, so picking against four of them every week is bound to result in some misses. 

With that said, I think most of my picks this year have panned out (or not panned out, depending on how you look at it). Hopefully, we can keep that going with some good drop picks this week. As always, league context matters, and don't follow these recommendations blindly … but here are four players you can move on from heading into Week 9. 

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QB Caleb Williams, Chicago Bears (80.1% Rostered)

Williams has been straight-up bad to start his sophomore season in the NFL. He ranks 26th out of 37 qualified QBs in PFF Passing Grade and 29th out of 34 in completion percentage vs. expected.

For a while, these struggles weren't showing up on the fantasy side. Thanks to some soft matchups and some uncharacteristic rushing production, he averaged 23.8 points over the first three weeks, which kept his averages high for a while.

But with 12.8 points in an embarrassing loss to the Tyler Huntley-led Ravens on Sunday, the former first-overall pick has now averaged 12.8 points over his last four outings. He does have a juicy matchup with a Bengals' defense that was just dominated by the Jets, of all teams, in Week 9. 

But after that (and as bye weeks start to slow down), it's very unlikely that he will rank as a top-12 quarterback in most weeks. And in shallower formats, it's simply not worth holding a backup QB on your bench. If comparable players like Trevor Lawrence (34% rostered) and Sam Darnold (27% rostered) are available in your league, that's your sign to move on from Caleb … at least after next week.

RB Kenneth Gainwell, Pittsburgh Steelers (51.2% Rostered)

This has nothing to do with Gainwell's status as the Steelers' RB2 and a fantasy handcuff — Kaleb Johnson is less relevant than ever, and Gainwell has shown that he can produce if Jaylen Warren is unavailable. However, Gainwell's roster percentage isn't in the handcuff range.

To justify being rostered in over 50% of leagues, he should have standalone value, and that simply isn't the case right now.

Over the last two weeks, Gainwell has recorded just three half-PPR points per game. He has played 36% of the Steelers' offensive snaps and handled just eight of 37 backfield carries. He does have a respectable-ish 35% route participation rate, but that has only turned into four targets.

This isn't a 60/40 committee — Warren is Pittsburgh's RB1, and Gainwell takes what is left over. He is safely droppable in most shallow and standard formats, where pure handcuff value doesn't make a player a must-have.  

WR Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland Browns (78.6% Rostered)

This one goes against one of my favorite fantasy football axioms, which states that every NFL RB1 and WR1 should be rostered. After all, Jeudy is still the Browns' WR1. For the season, he leads Cleveland in route participation rate (86%), target share (17%), and air yards share (37%). Those are genuinely solid numbers, and they are why he hasn't appeared in this column until now.

But at a certain point, usage has to turn into points. That simply isn't happening for Jeudy, who ranks as the WR86 with 4.6 half-PPR points per game. The complete donut he dropped on Sunday means that he has as many games below three fantasy points (four) as he does above six (also four). He also has just one game above 7.1 points, and that 9.1-point outing came all the way back in Week 1.

And there's no light at the end of the tunnel here. Cedric Tillman's incoming return will only cut further into Jeudy's usage. Given his targets, Jeudy will probably have at least a productive game or two.

But will he ever string usable outings together, causing you to actually want him in your lineup? I doubt it. With that in mind, he's safe to drop — let him clog someone else's bench.  

TE T.J. Hockenson, Minnesota Vikings (88% Rostered)

I've said it before, and I'll say it again: tight end is the hardest position to do this exercise for, as there aren't many widely rostered options and the standard for fantasy viability at the position is so low. But Hockenson is flirting with that standard. 

Hockenson is currently the TE22 in total points, averaging just six half-PPR points per game. Unlike some of the other tight ends I've featured (Evan Engram), he's at least still consistently on the field. His 75% route participation rate ranks ninth among all tight ends. But things get worse and worse the further we dig into the numbers: his 16% target share ranks 13th, and his 9.6% air yards share ranks 27th. 

Combine that lack of downfield targets with just one target inside the 10-yard line all season, and you get a very low-upside fantasy option. This is especially true given that the Vikings' offense has taken a major step back in terms of QB play this year.

Hockenson isn't entirely useless, but he's closer to the TD-dependent wasteland of TE2s than he is to being a reliable starting option. If you're in a shallow league, it's time to drop him for a higher upside option.