Fantasy Football Week 8 Late-Game Quarterback Start/Sit Decisions: Baker Mayfield, Dak Prescott, and More

Despite injuries to his top playmakers and offensive linemen going down in front of him, Baker Mayfield has been productive in leading the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a 5-2 record, tied for best in the NFC. He has been an effective fantasy player as well, ranking as QB8.

His continued effectiveness has Mayfield as a hot fantasy topic every week, and he has again been showing up all over our FantasySP start/sit tool. This has become a regular occurrence for a guy who could hang in a wide open MVP race.

Let's look at Mayfield and three quarterbacks playing in the later games who he has been matched up with often on the start/sit tool. We'll do a head-to-head quick-hit exercise to determine the best starter in each situation. Most stats are from NFL.com.

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Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

Mayfield is having a season mostly in line with his past two years in Tampa Bay, but he had a strangely ineffective game against an injured and struggling Lions defense last week. Odds are he will get back on track, although Mayfield is dealing with plenty of injuries around him.

He is averaging 252.4 passing yards and 22.6 rushing yards per game with 13 touchdowns and just two interceptions. That has Mayfield sitting as a top-10 fantasy QB, a range in which he finished each of the past two seasons.

The Saints have given up the 10th-most yards per pass attempt and 11th-most fantasy points per game to QBs. They're not one of the top teams to go after, but New Orleans still offers a top-10 matchup and plenty of fantasy intrigue. They are also vulnerable to the QB run, giving up at least 28 yards in four of seven games.

With a successful quarterback here against a struggling defense, Mayfield has a good outlook in Week 8. I'm rolling with him in most situations unless you have another stud quarterback.

Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans

The only reason for concern here is that Indianapolis might beat Tennessee so bad that Jones doesn't have to do anything to put up big numbers. That's what happened when they played in Week 3, as Jones had 228 yards and a touchdown on 9.1 yards per attempt and the Colts won 41-20. Jones finished as QB11 that week, fine but unspectacular. More of the same could be coming.

Tennessee has allowed the ninth-most yards per pass attempt but the seventh-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The reason for the better fantasy performance is a lack of volume: the Titans have faced the 11th-fewest pass attempts, and five of the 10 teams in front of them have already had their bye.

Teams are beating up on Tennessee and not throwing the ball much; Jones already had it happen once against this team. While they're poor on defense, the Titans are bad enough overall that quarterbacks don't do great fantasy work.

Advice: Start Baker Mayfield over Daniel Jones because Mayfield is likely to rack up more volume.

Bo Nix, Denver Broncos vs. Dallas Cowboys

Nix gets a fantastic matchup against the Cowboys here, as Dallas has allowed the second-most yards per pass attempt and the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. They have also given up more than 30 rushing yards per game to QBs. There's not much else that needs to be said; this is a team to go after with opposing players every week.

Nix has been fine from a fantasy perspective, but he has struggled more in real life. He will always add fantasy impact with his legs, but throwing the ball hasn't gone so well, as Nix is averaging just 6.1 yards per pass attempt, well below average.

He will have better days, and the matchup here points toward this possibly being one of them. After leading all fantasy quarterbacks in scoring last week, Nix has the chance at another big game here.

Advice: This is a tough one. Mayfield is as solid as can be, but there's such a big upside that it makes Nix enticing. Mayfield has the better floor, but Nix has the better ceiling; that might determine who you start. Having to make a decision, I'll say to start Bo Nix over Baker Mayfield, but it's super close.

Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys @ Denver Broncos

Opposing Nix is Prescott, a player who ranks second in the league in passing yards. That has come more from volume than efficiency, as Prescott is also tied for the second-most pass attempts. He's likely to keep throwing a lot, but if his volume drops, the fantasy performance is likely to go with it.

This is also a much tougher matchup than Prescott has recently faced, as the Broncos have given up the eighth-fewest yards per pass attempt and the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. Denver has the upside of the best defense in football.

Prescott is likely to put up more numbers in this game, but nothing is going to be easy against the Broncos. It's tough to bench a guy who has put up such big numbers; Prescott was QB2 entering Week 8. I'm skeptical of his fantasy prospects this week, though.

Advice: Start Baker Mayfield over Dak Prescott because of the matchups.