Finding the Top Week 8 Fantasy Football Pickups with Predictive Analytics: Oronde Gadsden, Kyle Monangai and More

Perhaps the most powerful tool available here at Fantasy SP is Predictive Analytics, courtesy of the Fantasy Assistant. Today, I'm going to be talking about my favorite of those Predictive Analytics: Expected Waiver Interest.

Expected Waiver Interest (EWI) is a measure of how much interest each player will generate on waivers, generated before each week's waivers have been run. The EWI tool provides an EWI rating for each of the week's hottest wavier pickups, as well as a projection of how heavily rostered they will be after waivers are run. This can help you know what players to prioritize with your pickups and how much FAAB you'll need to get your top choices. 

The easiest way to understand the power of EWI is with examples, so let's take a look at this week's leaders in EWI:

For the first time in a while, we have a consensus top waiver pickup: Oronde Gadsden leads the way in EWI by a mile. After the rookie tight end, things cool down dramatically, with no other players above 28%. Let's take a look at the top options, seeing who is undervalued and who is best avoided on the Week 8 fantasy football waiver wire. 

Wish a real fantasy expert could break down your team, not just spit out generic advice? Now you can - get a personalized Team Breakdown, tailored for your exact league.

TE Oronde Gadsden II, Los Angeles Chargers (73% EWI)

Gadsden's 25.9 half-PPR points on Sunday weren't just the most of his young NFL career, they were the most scored in a single week by any tight end so far this season.

With a 15% target share on a 79% route participation rate, the fifth-round rookie is a real part of this pass-happy Chargers' offense. Given how hard it is to find upside at the TE position, he should be added in all formats. 

RB Kyle Monangai, Chicago Bears (28% EWI)

Next up, we have another Day 3 rookie coming off a big week, as Monangai scored 16.4 points against the Saints on Sunday. Expectations should be tempered here, as, although his role has grown from week to week, Monangai is still clearly the RB2 in Chicago's backfield behind D'Andre Swift. But that doesn't mean he's not worth adding.

If anyone can design an offense to support two fantasy-relevant RBs, it's Ben Johnson.

QB Joe Flacco, Cincinnati Bengals (22% EWI)

Flacco has averaged 22.4 points in his two starts with the Bengals. And while I wouldn't rush to make him your QB1 just yet, it's not at all absurd to imagine that he will provide usable numbers for the rest of the season.

We've seen him provide fantasy value in spurts a few times in recent years, and the situation in Cincinnati is very conducive to scoring (at least, aside from their terrible O-line). Given his early success, Flacco is worth considering as an option in any league where you are struggling to find solid QB play. 

WR Alec Pierce, Indianapolis Colts (19% EWI)

Pierce had by far his best game of the season on Sunday against the Chargers. He led the Colts with 10 targets, catching five for 98 yards. His 245 air yards ranked first in the entire league for the week, so he easily could have had a more productive final stat line than his actual 12.3 half-PPR points. 

Underperforming compared to his downfield usage has actually been a theme of Pierce's season. He has averaged an elite 43% share of air yards (on an 18% overall target share) in the Colts' suddenly elite offense. But he has yet to score a touchdown and has only four catches of more than 25 yards.

If we look at things glass-half-full, Pierce could be due for some positive regression on the deep ball front. If we look at them glass-half-empty, he's just a sacrificial X receiver who will never be more than the fourth option in this offense.

Put it all together, and I think he's worth adding in deeper formats as a boom/bust flex, but waiver fodder in shallow leagues where his inconsistency will be annoying. 

QB Jaxson Dart, New York Giants (19% EWI)

With 29.4 points against an excellent Broncos defense on Sunday, Dart is now averaging 22.6 fantasy points through his first four NFL starts.

While he still has plenty of room to grow as a passer, he has averaged 8.8 attempts for 44.5 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on the ground. That level of rushing work can make any QB fantasy-relevant, so he's worth adding if you need QB help.

WR Xavier Legette, Carolina Panthers (19% EWI)

Legette had a very slow start to the season, dealing with a hamstring injury and failing to produce even when healthy. But that changed this week, as he caught nine of a team-leading 11 targets for 92 yards, a TD, and 19.7 fantasy points. 

However, I don't recommend prioritizing Legette on the wavier wire this week. He is not going to pass rookie Tetairoa McMillan to be the Panthers' WR1, and nothing about this offense indicates it is going to support two fantasy-relevant WRs. Outside of deep leagues, the 2024 first-rounder can be left on waivers until he shows that this was more than a one-off.

RB Justice Hill, Baltimore Ravens (16% EWI)

I'm honestly not sure why Hill's EWI is so high this week. The veteran pass-catcher did literally nothing in Week 7, as the Ravens were on bye. For the season, he has served in the same third-down RB role as last season, which only provides enough usage for fringe flex value in deep PPR leagues. 

The only reason I can think of for Hill's EWI is that he just happens to be one of the highest projected widely available running backs heading into a bye-heavy Week 8.

If you are looking for a streaming RB in a PPR format, the veteran back is a valid option. Otherwise, don't add him — he doesn't even have traditional handcuff value, as it's unlikely he would lead the Ravens' backfield in carries even if Derrick Henry missed time. 

WR Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills (16% EWI)

Shakir is likely trending up for similar reasons as Hill. He was on bye last week but is now an appealing flex option to managers staring at a whole new host of byes. And, just like with Hill, I think adding Shakir as a streamer is a totally solid play.

But if you're looking for long-term upside, look elsewhere — it's very unlikely at this point that Shakir's role changes from his current part-time status. 

WR Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos (16% EWI)

On the one hand, Franklin's 11.4 points in Week 7 were lucky, as they were mostly thanks to an absurd deflected TD. On the other hand, the second-year wideout led Denver's offense with 10 targets, 163 air yards, and a whopping 26.6 expected fantasy points (per Fantasy Points Data), so you could also argue he was unlucky to only score 11 points. 

Unfortunately, Franklin's other usage numbers aren't as promising. After briefly being a full-time player early in the season, he has averaged just a 69% route participation rate in Sean Payton's offense over the last four weeks. That has turned into just a 16% target share and 7.1 points per game. He's not a terrible pickup, but not an exciting one, either.

WR Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars (16% EWI)

If Hunter is on your waiver wire, add him immediately. After seeing part-time usage to start the season, the Heisman winner has led the Jaguars in routes in each of the last two weeks, with participation rates above 84%.

On Sunday, he turned those routes into points, catching eight of 13 targets for 101 yards and his first NFL touchdown. Especially with Brian Thomas Jr. continuing to struggle, this could be the start of a breakout from the hyper-talented rookie, and he should be rostered in all formats. 

WR Wan'Dale Robinson, New York Giants (16% EWI)

Robinson has officially become the poster child of my weekly wide receiver waiver wire article, as he has literally featured in it every single week of the season. He is currently the WR28 in half-PPR points per game, and there's no reason to think he can't keep it up with Malik Nabers sidelined and Dart playing well.

If you need a solid WR3 or flex option, add him and reap the rewards. 

RB Woody Marks, Houston Texans (16% EWI)

Marks has quietly taken over the Texans' backfield. Over Houston's last three games, he has led Nick Chubb in snap share (52% to 34%), carries (34 to 29), route participation (36% to 19%), and targets (11 to six).

Things won't always be pretty behind arguably the league's worst O-line, but the rookie out of USC does also add value in the passing game. More importantly, every single starting NFL RB should be rostered in all formats, so he's a must-add.