Fantasy Football Week 5 Wide Receiver Start/Sit: Jordan Addison, Khalil Shakir and More
Ted breaks down some of the toughest wide receiver start/sit decisions for fantasy football in Week 5.
Welcome to Week 5's fantasy football wide receiver start/sit breakdown. Standards will be lower this week, as we have the first set of byes, not to mention a rash of wide receiver injuries. However, before we get into Week 5, let's take a look at Week 4's results.
For the second week running, I'm pretty happy with my picks from last week. Marvin Harrison Jr. (15.6 half-PPR points) as a sit was the only big miss. Even including MHJ, my start picks averaged 12.1 points to just 8.3 for my sit picks. Given the volatile nature of the WR position, I will take those results every week.
Hopefully, we can make it three in a row with another good performance this week! Without further ado, let's get started.
For more help with your toughest Week 5 start/sit decisions, check out FantasySP's NFL Start/Sit tool!
Wide Receivers to Start Week 5
Stefon Diggs, New England Patriots
At this time last week, I considered listing Diggs as a sit, but decided that he wasn't even good enough to be a worthwhile selection. But things change fast in the NFL.
Diggs was just a part-time player in his first three weeks in New England, with a useless 56% route participation rate. In Week 4, that number jumped up to a respectable 77% rate.
Unsurprisingly, actually being on the field led to increased fantasy production for Diggs. He saw massive usage in the form of a 39% target share and a 64% air yards share. And he turned that usage into points, catching six of seven targets for 101 yards.
Given that he produced in the expanded role, there's no reason for the Patriots' coaches not to continue leaning on the veteran. That makes him a solid WR3 option in a game where the Patriots will likely be playing from behind.
Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
I listed Olave as a start last week, and it didn't go too well. He somehow had negative fantasy points at halftime, with zero receptions and a trick-play interception. Thankfully, he salvaged his fantasy day with a late touchdown. And, while his final stat line was definitely a bit fortunate given his rough start to the game, it wasn't as lucky as you might think.
The key is that Olave is the top target in the Saints' offense, which, thanks to Kellen Moore's fast-paced approach, ranks second in the entire league in plays run. He ranks second only to football demigod Puka Nacua with 42 targets on the year. When you see the ball that often, chances are you're going to end up in the end zone and/or break off a big play.
This week, the Saints are actually favorites at home in the dome against Jaxson Dart and the Giants. If New Orleans' offense can be efficient as well as high-volume, that only increases Olave's chances at a big game. Fire him up with confidence this week.
Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina Panthers
I was surprised to see McMillan show up as one of the most commonly asked-about players in the start/sit tool this week. At this point, I consider the rookie a borderline must-start. However, he is just the WR31 in half-PPR formats, with mediocre results in each of his last two games, so I understand if managers are a little uncertain.
However, if there was ever a week to trust McMillan, it's this week against the Dolphins. Miami's defense has been miserable so far this season. They technically rank as a bad matchup for receivers, but that is misleading. They have actually given up the second-highest dropback EPA and the highest dropback success rate in the league.
This matchup should be one where even Bryce Young can have some success. And if Young is having success, it will almost certainly involve feeding his rookie WR1. McMillan has a 22% target share and a 40% air yards share in the Panthers' offense. His 34% share of the team's total receiving yards is sixth-best in the NFL. Put it all together, and “T-Mac” is an excellent play this week.
Wide Receivers to Sit Week 5
DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles
I saw in the start/sit tool that a few managers were asking whether to bench A.J. Brown this week. I'm not ready to go that far, but I am ready to suggest sitting the Robin of the Eagles' passing attack.
Now, Smith isn't a must-bench. He's still an extremely talented player, and he is still seeing solid usage (20% target share, 31% air yards share). However, his results so far this season almost speak for themselves. He has more games below four half-PPR points (two) than he does above 10 (one).
In general, we know that Smith is the third priority for the Eagles' offense, behind AJB and Saquon Barkley. That's fine when things are rolling, but it becomes an issue now that Philadelphia is struggling to move the ball. Until things get better for this offense, Smith will be a boom/bust option. Against a tough Denver defense, this week is more likely to be another bust than a boom.
Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Honestly, Addison is very similar to Smith. Just like Smith, he's a talented player, and he's more than capable of making me look very stupid for doubting him.
After being suspended for the first three weeks of the season, he slotted right back into a solid role in the Vikings' offense in Week 4: a 17% target share and a 31% air yards share on a 91% route participation rate.
However, just like Smith, Addison is stuck behind an alpha receiver. And Justin Jefferson is even more target-dominant than Brown. Meanwhile, the Vikings' offense is having struggles of its own, as Carson Wentz (and J.J. McCarthy before him) is proving that maybe Sam Darnold's 2024 success wasn't just the cushy situation.
The Vikings' matchup this week also isn't ideal for Addison. The Browns' defense is good, but their offense with Dillon Gabriel isn't going to scare anyone. Especially with Wentz under center, Kevin O'Connell will likely be tempted to lean heavily on Jordan Mason to secure at least one win in their two-week trip across the pond. Unless he hits on a big play, I expect a lackluster showing from Addison.
Khalil Shakir/Keon Coleman, Buffalo Bills
This final pick continues the theme of “high-upside players who can definitely make me look stupid.” This time, I'm even including two to double my chances of regretting this decision.
Obviously, both Shakir and Coleman are capable of good weeks. The Bills' 28.75-point projected total is the second-highest on the slate, and they are Buffalo's top two receivers. It wouldn't be at all surprising if one or both of them scored a TD, which essentially guarantees a solid fantasy outing.
The issue is that, for being the team's top receivers, neither Shakir nor Coleman sees inspiring usage. Coleman leads the team with just an 18% target share and a 30% air yards share. Shakir is even worse at a 15% target share and a measly 12% air yards share. The slot specialist has caught 100% of his targets and scored in each of the last two weeks, but he still failed to break 16 half-PPR points in either outing.
Coleman has shown a higher ceiling, with 21.2 points in Week 1. But he has scored just 13.6 points over the last three weeks combined. At the end of the day, volume is king in fantasy football, and neither of these players is seeing consistent volume with the way the Bills spread their offense around.
In deep leagues, you can stick them in your flex and hope for a TD. But in most traditional formats, you probably have a less volatile option available, and I recommend you take it.